Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
65%
Likely
Yes

Question description

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts294

Capture

Resizable preview:
65%
Likely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Last updated: 2023-10-03
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 294

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