Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
Yes
Question description
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 294 |
Capture
Resizable preview:
65%
Likely
Last updated: 2023-10-03
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Last updated: 2023-10-03
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 294
Embed
<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-8129" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />