Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
Yes
Question description
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 294 |
Capture
Resizable preview:
65%
Likely
Last updated: 2023-10-03
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Last updated: 2023-10-03
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 294
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