Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

Metaculus
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Unlikely
Yes

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Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, forces serving the armed forces of a NATO member (other than the US) and the Russian armed forces have a deadly conflict involving gunfire or explosives, according to credible media reports.

For this question, a gun is used if it is fired, and an explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.

At least one death must result from the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.

The military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves servicemen enlisted in the armed forces of both Russia and a non-US NATO member.

This question will resolve as No if the above criteria are not met for a clash between Russia and a non-US NATO member, or if the criteria are met for a clash between Russia and the US by 2024 (regardless of whether there is a qualifying clash between Russia and a NATO member before or after the US-Russia clash).

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Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?

  • Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?


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Last updated: 2023-01-29
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Metaculus
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