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Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A number of questions relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in this story, China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts641

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Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A number of...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 641

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