What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Metaculus
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For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see here.

For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include detonations for testing purposes or peaceful nuclear explosions (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).

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For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, see here.

For the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or...

Last updated: 2024-03-28
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 55

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