Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see here.

The total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed.

Stockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts55

Capture

Resizable preview:
30%
Unlikely

For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see here.

The total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 55

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