For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see here.
The total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed.
Stockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 62 |
For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see here.
The total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in...
<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-8378" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />