Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts111

Capture

Resizable preview:
3%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

Last updated: 2024-07-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-8380" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />