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Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts115

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 115

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