Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
Yes
Question description
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 115 |
Capture
Resizable preview:
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07
This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.
Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 115
Embed
<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-8380" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />