The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of nuclear winter effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling.

Potentially useful resources:

• List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter

• [Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects

• [rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?