If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

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As stated on another question about extinction:

"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts128

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3%
Very unlikely

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Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 128

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