If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?
Yes
Question description
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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?
For simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 90 |
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Resizable preview:
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-05-08
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Last updated: 2024-05-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
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