If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Metaculus
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37%
Unlikely
Yes

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For simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts90

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37%
Unlikely

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Last updated: 2024-05-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90

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