Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
12%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was 34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year. Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021

By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, women get the majority of all degrees, from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]

Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?

This question will resolve as Yes if at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in the 2049-2050 school year are awarded to women, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. "Female" or "women" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.

If bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve as Ambiguous at their discretion.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts137

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12%
Unlikely

Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 137

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