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Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
62%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021

All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.

A survey from Gallup finds that 16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021. And an article in the Washington Post reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts101

Capture #

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Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a blog post published August 25, 2021

All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 101

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