What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?
Question description
What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. (Though definitions vary, and what a weapon is designed for could differ from what it's used for.)
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 22 |
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What types of offensive nuclear detonation would occur given nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.
Non-strategic nuclear weapons (also known...
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