Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
Yes
Question description
For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see here.
Indicators
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 54 |
Capture
Resizable preview:
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07
For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see here.
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 54
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