At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

Metaculus
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70%
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Yes

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Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.

See also Collection of questions on nuclear targeting.

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PlatformMetaculus
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70%
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Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.

See also Collection of questions on nuclear targeting.

Last updated: 2024-05-05
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 91

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