Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the "low-200s" (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads.

The 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and " likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030" (page 90).

This Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024.

If these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. As the Financial Times reports, "Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?"

Understanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.