Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?

Related Question on Metaculus:

• When will the US break up Meta Platforms?

Meta Platforms, Inc., formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent organization of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other subsidiaries.

Meta acquired a number of other companies most notably another social network Instagram (in 2012) and messaging platform WhatsApp (in 2014) since it's inception as "thefacebook.com" in 2004.

A number of politicians (e.g. Elizabeth Warren) consider these acquisitions anticompetitive and call for forced breaking up of Meta.

Facebook and FTC

In December 2020 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit claiming illegal monopolization. Lawsuit was dismissed by the Judge in June 2021.

In August 2021 FTC filed a new lawsuit alleging "Facebook resorted to illegal buy-or-bury scheme to crush competition after string of failed attempts to innovate". According to new complaint

Facebook is likely to impose anticompetitive conditions on access to its platform and seek to acquire companies it perceives as potential threats, especially when it next faces “acute competitive pressures from a period of technological transition."

CMA's order to sell Giphy

On Nov 30, 2021, UK's Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) issued Meta an order to sell Giphy, a gif-search engine, acquired for $400M in May 2020. According to CMA's review

Facebook would be able to increase its already significant market power in relation to other social media platforms by:

• denying or limiting other platforms’ access to Giphy GIFs, driving more traffic to Facebook-owned sites – Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram – which already account for 73% of user time spent on social media in the UK, or

• changing the terms of access by, for example, requiring TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat to provide more user data in order to access Giphy GIFs.