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Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
42%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

The United States is a world leader in science and technology and is leading the world in Nobel Prizes. American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), and it is home to embryo selection startups like Genomic Prediction and Orchid. Public polling shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of "changing a baby's characteristics" to improve intelligence but younger Americans are more supportive of the technology. There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the right, as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that life beings at conception as well as from the left, who have referred to embryo selection as "eugenics". The first polygenically screened baby was born in the United States in 2021. Abortion remains legal in the United States, and recent challenges to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.

American media has suggested that China, which is a rival of the United States and has a quickly growing biotechnology industry, will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed concern that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts162

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Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

The United States is a world leader in science and technology and is leading the world in Nobel Prizes. American...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 162

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