Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful coups between 1966 and 1993. The country exited military rule in 1999.

Recent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in Niger, Mali, Guinea, Sudan, and Burkina Faso.

Nigeria has been suffering from several severe issues in 2021, including jihadist insurgency in the north, kidnapping gangs, as well as resurgent Biafran separatism. In 2021, The Economist called Nigeria "ungovernable" and Foreign Policy called the nation a "failed state".

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts222

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Resizable preview:
5%
Very unlikely

Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful coups between 1966 and 1993. The country exited military rule in 1999.

Recent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in Niger, Mali,...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 222

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