Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
13%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

As discussed by the Long Now Foundation, futarchy

is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In Hanson’s words, “we would vote on values, but bet on beliefs.”

Futarchy is based on the assumption that poor nations are poor because their governments adopt flawed policies, despite expertise recommending otherwise. Although this assumption may be problematic, in that it boils economic stagnation down to sheer misjudgment, the question of how to render governments accountable to public opinion regarding the future is a valuable one. Futarchy intends to address this by having democratically-elected representatives formally define and manage after-the-fact measurements of national welfare, while allowing market speculators to determine which policies are expected to raise national welfare (Hanson). According to Hanson, “the basic rule of government would be: when a betting market clearly estimates that a proposed policy would increase expected national welfare, that proposal becomes law.”

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts122

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13%
Unlikely

As discussed by the Long Now Foundation, futarchy

is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 122

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