Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

The European Union and the associated Schengen Area have allowed for the movement of people and goods across Europe. Europeans are consumers of biotechnology technology in other countries. For instance, 40% of all fertility tourism in Europe is in Spain and 5% of the preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) in Europe is handled through the Zohar Unit of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Israel, a country that has substantial scientific cooperation with the EU. Within Europe itself, Denmark has the highest proportion of births from in vitro fertilization (IVF), though Israel has more IVF cycles per capita. Opinion polling of European countries shows that few Europeans believe "it would be appropriate to change a baby’s genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent", but many countries are not surveyed, for instance Denmark and Estonia.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts161

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30%
Unlikely

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

The European Union and the associated Schengen Area have allowed for the movement of people and goods across Europe. ...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 161

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