How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?

Metaculus
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The satellite launch market spans a range of satellite sizes, from tens of tons down to a few kg or less. "Small" satellites are generally considered to be 1200 kg and below. Most launches are larger capacity, with many small satellites flying as secondary payloads on larger vehicles, or with multiple satellites of a constellation flying on a single launch. However, there are several operational launch vehicles dedicated to small satellite launch, including Minotaur, Pegasus, and Electron. Several others are under active development, including Astra's Rocket 3 and Virgin Orbit's LauncherOne.

As of 2022-02-19, there has been one such launch in 2022: the January 13th launch of LauncherOne.

How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?

This question will resolve as the number of successful orbital launches in the calendar year 2022 with 1200kg or less of total payload mess. Launch data will come from the following sources which have less than or equal to 1.200t of payload mass. For launches with no listed payload mass, the nominal launch capacity of the rocket will be used.

[fine-print] While "Small" satellites sometimes mean specifically the range of 600kg-1200kg, for this question all "small" launches will be considered, even if they have less than 600kg of payload.

Test payloads and dummy payloads will be included, provided that the payload successfully reaches orbit. [/fine-print]

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The satellite launch market spans a range of satellite sizes, from tens of tons down to a few kg or less. "Small" satellites are generally considered to be 1200 kg and below. Most launches are larger capacity, with many small satellites flying as...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 24

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