Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
45%
About Even
Yes

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Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a period of transition in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. Australia has never built a nuclear power station in the electric grid.

Fossil fuels account for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource. Of fossil fuel consumption, oil makes up 40%, coal 30%, and natural gas 30%. The share of coal in the electricity mix has declined, from 80% in 2000 to 54% in 2020.

While Australia's nuclear industry is quite small and consiststs of a single reactor facility opened in 1958 at Lucas Heights in NSW, producing industrial and medical isotopes, a recent military agreement has increased the likelihood of Australia operating additional nuclear reactors - albeit in the form of nuclear powered submarines.

The Howard government commissioned the Switowski Report in 2006 which concluded that nuclear power could compete with coal if a carbon credit system was imposed on or by Australia. In response, the Labor party adopted an anti-nuclear platform, and won the 2007 election.

A September 2021 poll from Essential found 50% of Australian respondents in favor of nuclear energy, with 32% opposed, although a similar share (20%) were strongly in favor as those strongly opposed (17%).

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45%
About Even

Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a period of transition in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. ...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 89

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