Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
24%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, formally known as the Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, is the decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Currently, the Politburo is a group of 25 top officials who oversee the CCP.

Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China (since 2013) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (since 2012), is General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (since 2012) - General Secretary being the highest Politburo position.

More than one million CCP officials have been arrested or jailed in the corruption crackdown that began shortly after Mr Xi took power in 2012. Moreover, several Politburo members were expelled and/or arrested around 2017, which was seen by many observers as part of an overall strategy by Xi for consolidating power. (For neutrality, it is worth noting that many other observers claimed these Politburo arrests were legitimate and not politically motivated.)

A trend of Politburo member expulsions or arrests may be some indicator of China’s stability and its political system trajectory, which in turn may affect global cooperation. Thus we ask:

In 2022 and 2023, will one or more members of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested?

The question will resolve positively if there will be 3 credible news sources reporting a Politburo member expulsion or arrest. Note that during 2022 a new Politburo is expected to be elected - thus we ask whether any member of either the old or the new Politburo will be expelled or arrested.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts120

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Resizable preview:
24%
Unlikely

The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, formally known as the Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, is the decision-making body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Currently, the Politburo is a group of 25 top officials...

Last updated: 2022-11-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120

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