Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
7%Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

Related Questions on Metaculus:

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? As Wikipedia states: “Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is an unrecognized breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.” [...] Transnistria has been recognized by only three other unrecognized or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia. Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022, there are at least five credible articles that: a) report listing areas in Transnitria controlled by Russia that cover at least two thirds (2/3) of the population, according to the latest reliable population demographic data AND b) report that Russia formally acknowledges Russian political control over the region such that Russia formally considers the region of Transnistria as part of Russia. We will define annexation as: the absorption of territory into a state. It is distinct from conquest, which refers to the acquisition of control over a territory involving a change of sovereignty, and differs from cession, in which territory is given or sold through treaty, since annexation is a unilateral act where territory is seized and held by one state. It usually follows military occupation of a territory.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts1220

Capture

7%Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?
  • Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? As Wikipedia states: “Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian...
Last updated: 2022-05-22
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1220