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Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Polymarket
★★★☆☆
25%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformPolymarket
Liquidity$1.1k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-12

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If a...

Last updated: 2026-01-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/polymarket-676803" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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