On 13 September 2022, a 22-year-old Iranian woman named Mahsa Amini, was detained by Iran’s Guidance Patrol (also known as “the morality police”) for violating Iran’s dress code. Two hours later she was hospitalized, and after three days in a coma, she was declared dead. Her death sparked a wave of protests in Iran by those who believe she was murdered by the police, while the official investigation claims she died of natural causes. As no definitive evidence emerged thus far, a probabilistic analysis is needed.