Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)
Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability."
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his "business as usual" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | X-risk estimates |
Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)
Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability."
This...