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Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming

X-risk estimates
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90%
Very likely
Yes

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Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.

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Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming
90%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-01-23

Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to...

Last updated: 2026-01-23
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates

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