Actual estimate: 0.5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | X-risk estimates |
Actual estimate: 0.5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.