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A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years

X-risk estimates

★★☆☆☆

25%

Unlikely

Yes

Question description #

Increased from his 5% unconditional probability

Indicators #

Indicator	Value
Stars	★★☆☆☆
Platform	X-risk estimates

Capture #

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A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years

25%

Unlikely

Last updated: 2025-09-15

Increased from his 5% unconditional probability

Last updated: 2025-09-15

★★☆☆☆

X-risk estimates

Embed #

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