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Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence

X-risk estimates
★★☆☆☆
5%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/

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★★☆☆☆
PlatformX-risk estimates

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Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates

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