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At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100

X-risk estimates
★★☆☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

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This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.

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PlatformX-risk estimates

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At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates

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