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Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120

X-risk estimates
★★☆☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)

See this post for some commentary: Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates

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★★☆☆☆
PlatformX-risk estimates

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Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-02

Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)

See this post for some commentary: Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates

Last updated: 2026-01-02
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates

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