20%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 211
12%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 256
33%
Unlikely

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120
70%
Likely

Related question on Metaculus:

  • Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?

There have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191
> 99%
Virtually certain

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is RESP-NET, which it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 212
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
4%
Very unlikely

SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.

SARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 145
10%
Unlikely

Vitamin D has a history of large scale studies pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries already recommend supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 247

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 407

On 2020-01-30, the World Health Organization announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern regarding the COVID-19 in China. They declared that the outbreak had become a pandemic on 2021-03-11 . The declarations are typically renewed...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 334

The United States is one of a handful of countries to still prohibit entry of unvaccinated foreign nationals. The vaccine requirement for foreign nationals was imposed by President Biden on October 25, 2021 by presidential proclamation and has no...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 12
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 173
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 412

Over 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally, but the virus continues to spread even in countries with very high rates of vaccination such as Israel.

Sufficiently widespread vaccination (and natural antibodies from...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 151

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple novel variants have emerged as a result of continued evolution of...

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Metaculus
Forecasts: 366
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188

Since April 2020, Gallup have run several polls asking "What's your impression of the coronavirus situation in the U.S. today? Is it -- getting a lot worse, getting a little worse, staying about the same, getting a little better or getting a lot...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 70

According to the New York Times, the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 232

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020.

The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants:...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 78

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines have been widely administered in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. The two SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines used in the US are the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. As of June 5, 2022, the US has administered almost 570...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 357

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135

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