MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
By 2030, will New Zealand 🇳🇿 have officially announced a name change for international relations to include Aotearoa?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Resolves as YES if before December 31st, 2029 the country of New Zealand announces from official sources that they want to change the international relations name of the country (date of the change itself may be after 2030) and that new name is in...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.7k
Will Aella be on Surrounded?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

Context:

[tweet]This market will resolve YES if the Jubilee YouTube channel uploads a Surrounded episode featuring Aella by May 1 2026, NO otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M174
Will Tesla achieve unsupervised FSD in 2025?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

In the “We, Robot” Tesla event, Elon was reported as saying the following:

He also said he expects Tesla to have “unsupervised FSD” up and running in Texas and California next year in the company’s Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles. FSD, which...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M5.4k
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.03 in December?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for DOGE/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $8.4k
Will Jude Bellingham be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will resolve according to the top goalscorer of the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League.

If multiple players tie for the most goals in the 2025/2026 UEFA Champions League season, the market will resolve based on most assists, then most games...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
Morris College Hornets vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
90%
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
10%
Morris College Hornets
Last updated: 2025-12-18

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for December 18 at 6:30 PM ET:

If the Morris College Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Morris College Hornets".

If the UNC Asheville Bulldogs win, the market will resolve to "UNC Asheville Bulldogs".

If...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.6k
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 18?
51%
Down
50%
Up
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official NASDAQ closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on Thursday, December 18, 2025 is higher than the official NASDAQ closing price for GOOGL on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $599
Will the TSA allow >200ml containers of liquid on flights by 2030
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Current limit is 100ml: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/liquids-rule

Will the TSA more than double this?

Resolves YES if the limit is removed entirely, or the TSA is disbanded, or airport security no longer involves this style of...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 42
Volume: M1.6k
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-29

"unemployment" refers to the monthly unemployment rate published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The highest ever recorded monthly US unemployment rate was in April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, at 14.7%.

See data from...

Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M2.6k
Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Bitcoin $125K in 2025?
69%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolution Criteria:

The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $125,000 USD at any point in 2025, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high/low price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M4.4k
Will Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2025?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-20

Resolves Yes if there are credible evidence or credible news media reporting that the two have met in person in year 2025

Last updated: 2025-04-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M733
Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

“My prediction is next year we’ll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla.”

https://x.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1801400924096839732

[tweet]This was a prediction made during the Tesla 2024 Annual Stockholder Meeting..

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 144
Volume: M55k
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-18

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $388k
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $352k
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Will Drake release a new song in 2025?
71%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between October 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $123
Nvidia shares to hit new high in 2025?
63%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Previous high was $153.13 in January.

This market resolves YES if Nvidia (NVDA) shares reach a price higher than $153.13 at any point between market creation and December 31, 2025. The market resolves NO if the stock price fails to exceed $153.13...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M5.7k
Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?
60%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-05

The Trump administration has recently initiated deportations of non-citizens, particularly alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, to El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law allows for deportation of non-citizens...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 62
Volume: M7.0k
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-18

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the...

Last updated: 2025-12-18
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $57k

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus