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Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-11

The Brain-Like AGI research program by Steven Byrnes is based on taking brain models from neuroscience, containing a genetically hard-coded steering system and a learned-from-scratch thought generator and a learned-from-scratch thought assessor, and...

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M7.2k
Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.2k
Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol: Both Teams to Score
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-30

In the upcoming La Liga game between Celta Vigo and Espanyol, scheduled for November 30 at 12:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Celta Vigo and Espanyol each score at least one goal during the game.

This market will resolve to "No"...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

In the current South African lawsuit against Israel.

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 112
Volume: M15k
Will I go to the gym 200 times in 2024?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-10

Related to https://manifold.markets/jcbmrshll/will-alexshadley-and-i-go-to-the-gy#p75fwmhrrwb, same rules and requirements (I only bet yes and cannot sell).

I'm not sure I feel confident putting money into that market anymore so I made this one..

Last updated: 2025-04-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M8.2k
Will at least 20 users have ragequit or threatened to ragequit Manifold due to placing bad bets by the end of 2023?
53%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-07

List of ones I'm aware of:

"I thought you had to move this market by the percentage. It's all good. I'm done with Manifold. Free money to all."

"Plan is to break through whatever is left of the limit orders tomorrow morning when I wake up, I'll...

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M2.4k
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.3k
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 5 straight weeks?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesdays at 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve according to the number of consecutive weeks that...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $799
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-07

Also includes legislative branch, congress, senate, house of representatives etc as long as it's at the national level.

Last updated: 2025-04-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M465
Will Opendoor reach $8 in December?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during December 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $88
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Odds Nasralla wins Honduras presidential election Sunday over 70%?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?' (https://polymarket.com/event/honduras-presidential-election) is priced over the listed value for a majority...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.9k
Will Rennes win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 French Ligue 1. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Trump approval rating 44.5% or higher on May 20th?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-05-20

Market will resolve to YES if 44.5% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated May 20th, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver..

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 151
Volume: M74k
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $476k
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC....

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $409k
Will one bitcoin be worth more than $200k at the end of 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-18

Resolves to yes if a bitcoin is worth more than $200000 at the end of 2025

Last updated: 2025-05-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M3.5k
US buys Greenland by 2026?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States officially completes the purchase or annexation of Greenland by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PST.

Conditions for Resolution:

• The resolution will be based on an...

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 91
Volume: M32k
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $17k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 1?
90%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-11-30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-11-30
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $24k
Will Trump say that Moon should become a state before the end of his term?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

Mike Solana popularized the idea that Moon should be a state: https://www.piratewires.com/p/moon-should-be-a-state

In his Pirate Wires podcast dated 2/7/25, Solana raised the possibility of Trump adding Moon to his list of things the US should be...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 61
Volume: M8.2k

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