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Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.6k
Will a tech giant build a dedicated nuclear power plant for AI operations before 2040?
76%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-22

Given energy hungry AI and regulations over nuclear power, will a tech giant (market cap >= $100B) succeed in building a private nuclear power plant (100+ MW) for its own consumption or a commercial power plant to provide energy just for AI needs...

Last updated: 2025-04-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.1k
Apple announce new AI feature at WWDC 2025?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-06-12

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces a new artificial intelligence (AI) feature during its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) 2025, scheduled from June 9 to June 13, 2025. The announcement must occur during...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M1.5k
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
40%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $658
Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.
65%
Likely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $116
Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2026-01-08

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $30k
Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
There will be at least one region which limits suffrage only to those with children through mid 2027
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-08

A country, region, province, nation, etc whose political system for voting limits rights such that you need to have (or have had) children to vote.

If country, any size. If other type of division, if at least 100k people, it counts.

If it is a...

Last updated: 2025-03-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.4k
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $17k
Spread: Army Black Knights (-4.5)
> 99%
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
< 1%
Army Black Knights
Last updated: 2026-01-08

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for January 7 at 6:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Army Black Knights" if the Army Black Knights win the game by 5 or more points.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Loyola Maryland Greyhounds".

The...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.1k
Will Safari remain the 2nd most popular browser by the end of 2025?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-03

Resolution according to the "Usage share of all browsers" table in this Wikipedia entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M282
Will any US state attempt to secede from the union within one year of the 2024 election?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

Resolves Yes if any US state attempts to secede from the union by Nov 5th 2025.

Resolves No if not.

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.4k
Will I be diagnosed with autism before 2026?
81%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-14

I've thought of myself as autistic for a long time but never pursued a formal diagnosis. I anticipate making contact with a doctor capable of making such a diagnosis in the relatively near future, so I don't think the end date of the market should be...

Last updated: 2025-05-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M2.7k
Will Amazon have a broadly available drone delivery service in the US by June 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

By "broadly available", I roughly mean that at least 1 in 10 Americans could order something by drone if they wanted to. The cost of the delivery doesn't matter for the purposes of the question.

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M12k
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $481k
Between 17 May 2024 and 16 May 2025, will Tesla, Inc. or any current or former executives at Tesla be charged with a federal crime for actions related to Tesla statements or operations?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

In May 2024, Reuters reported that the US Justice Department was investigating Tesla for securities and wire fraud (US News & World Report). Whether criminal charges are brought by the Justice Department or other federal agency is immaterial. Any...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 107
Forecasters: 35
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

Donald Trump is expected to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address in late January or early February.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-08

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.8k
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-08

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Based's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

Last updated: 2026-01-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.0k

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