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Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

“Released” means the full episode is published and...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $283
Will Pope Leo XIV openly criticize Trump in 2025?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.

Market conditions:

Timeframe

The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 197
Volume: M24k
Taylor Swift releases a song crediting an AI system before 2026 (Ex: Taylor Swift ft. Suno)?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-08

Credited in songs credits or title etc. as long as ai system is credited officially.

Last updated: 2025-05-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M2.2k
Will European soil moisture be below the reference period for at least 3 out of the 4 years between 2022 and 2025?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Soil moisture refers to the water content in the top one centimetre of soil. Soil moisture is an essential land surface variable that has a significant impact on many environmental processes, such as the exchange of water and heat between the land...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView,...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $24k
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-01-25?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 25, 2026 If Stade Brestois 29 wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $94k
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.1k
Will a contestant numbered 126 - 150 win Beast Games: Season 2?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve according to the bracket containing the number of the contestant who is announced as the winner of Beast Games.

The winner is defined as the contestant who is announced as the winner. If multiple players are announced as the...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
Will Mathieu van der Poel win all 5 monuments during his career?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-11

Mathieu van der Poel has already won 3 of the 5 monuments (the biggest one-day classics) of road cycling. Resolves YES if he wins the 2 other monuments (Liège–Bastogne–Liège and Giro di Lombardia) before he retires.

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M603
Will Everton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 2nd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League....

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $8.8k
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.7k
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-16

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 21, 2026 If Club Atlético de Madrid wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $611
Will Brady Tkachuk win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Hart Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
Lightning vs. Blues
64%
Lightning
37%
Blues
Last updated: 2026-01-16

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 16 at 8:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Blues win, the market will resolve to "Blues". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $59k
Will planet k2-18b be confirmed to contain a major sign of Alien Life: DMS (dimethyl sulphide)
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-08

On Earth, DMS is only produced by life, primarily microbial life such as marine phytoplankton, suggesting the possibility of biological activity on K2-18 b

https://twitter.com/whitepill_pw/status/1701661250055262465

Researchers also identified...

Last updated: 2025-06-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M10k
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of January 2026. Otherwise, the...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will Sporting CP vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 16, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $94k
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.0k
Will the Houston Texans be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-01-16

This market will resolve according to the stage of elimination for the Houston Texans in the 2025–26 NFL Playoffs.

The market will immediately resolve once the Houston Texans’ stage of elimination can be confirmed.

If the Houston Texans’ stage of...

Last updated: 2026-01-16
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $19k
Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

I'll define the end of the war as either a negotiated peace agreement, the dissolution of the Ukrainian state or army, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, or general consensus among reputable journalism outlets that the war is over. If...

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M1.5k

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