MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

To date there is no vaccine to protect against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of all diseases for which there vaccine development has been attempted HIV/AIDS is perhaps the most difficult...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 429
Will Belgium break apart before 2034?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Belgium has a strict divide between Flandern and Wallonia: Language, Economy, Politics. In the last poll in Flandern, over 30% supported a separation from Wallonia.

Resolves YES if at least 20% of Belgian territory becomes independent or joins...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M646
Pony ears for humans before 2035?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-16

Resolves yes if by the end of 2034 at least one biological human has pony ears. The ears must appear pony-like and grant similar hearing to ponies. This includes the ability to move to detect where sounds are coming from and to express emotions.

The...

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M638
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-26

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes cast in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary election, scheduled for June 24, 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2025-06-26
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-27

Will I find a violation of universal free fall in my experiment?

If this market resolves NA, this one will resolve NA as well. If it resolves YES, this one will resolve YES as well. If it resolves NO, then I will generate a random integer i between...

Last updated: 2025-04-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.5k
Trump comes out in support of Puerto Rico as a state
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-03

By mid 2028 he publicly makes at least three statements stating they should be a state

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M630
If I post Kanye West's 'Heil Hitler' song in my company's #music channel, will I still work there 6 months later?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-17

Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified details regarding the posting of the song:

The minimum action for 'posting the song' will be to share a link.

This link will direct to the song on platforms like...

Last updated: 2025-05-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M279
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-26

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,500.00 (inclusive) and $2,600.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-06-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-19

Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.

A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is...

Last updated: 2025-04-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 91
Volume: M18k
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-14

This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 938
Volume: M599k
Manifold funeral at* Manifest 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-10

Resolves Yes if Manifold announces (or enacts) a closure, merger, or any other plan that would result in the site/business shutting down or substantially changing course in a "smaller future" direction, before 1 July 2025. Announcing "Maintenance...

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 31
Volume: M12k
By the end of 2025, will H5N1 Bird Flu have evolved to the point where the CDC declares it a global pandemic for humans?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-08

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

Last updated: 2025-06-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M763
Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-03

The United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31st, 2020, after a period of negotiation and uncertainty. Since then, both parties have continued to negotiate and establish new trade agreements. However, some in the UK remain deeply divided...

Last updated: 2025-04-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M392
Will JIP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-26

The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by July 27, 2025, to elect half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years.

This market will...

Last updated: 2025-06-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.5k
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the NL Central Division?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-26

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB NL Central Division.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the NL Central Division based on the rules of the MLB, this market will immediately resolve to “No”...

Last updated: 2025-06-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
Will we replace the calendar by end of 2040?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2041.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve...

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M549
Will Destiny be convicted of a felony related to the leaked audio/video drama?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

The word 'drama' isn't meant to downplay what's happening, just trying to identify the situation clearly.

Resolves YES if Destiny is convicted of a felony related to recording or sharing sexual materials.

Resolves NO when (as far as the public...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M5.0k
Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2026?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-21

Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2026 (all three events: Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes)?

Last updated: 2025-05-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M1.9k
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-26

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of...

Last updated: 2025-06-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $115k
How many housing units will be built in California by 2025 because of 2022-2023 'builder's remedy' permits?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-09

According to my current understanding, the California 'builder's remedy' policy has opened up a much more permissive permitting regime for residential buildings in many cities, as a result of the state finding those cities' ordinary rules to be out...

Last updated: 2025-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 35
Volume: M1.8k
Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?
65%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

SpaceX generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its Starlink satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue..

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus