Basketball is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The NBA is the largest professional league in the world.

Whilst making predictions for 2025 Jeff Davidson predicts that the height of the rim will be raised "beyond the year 2025, but not...

The People's Liberation Army Navy is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:

As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total...

Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that has grown to above 9% through November 2023.

PEVs consist of both...

A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with "Yes" or "No", was "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The "No" side won, with 2,001,926 (55..

Weaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war. The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to...

A previous Metaculus question asked about a great power war and whether the US and others would intervene in a conflict over Taiwan. Some scholars have warned about a Thucydides Trap that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan,...

The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of nuclear winter effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight..

Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the...

WikiLeaks is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "insurance files".

There has been much speculation about the...

Another question in this tournament asks Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?.

Denkenberger & Pearce (2016) write:

"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the...

This question was written in partnership with the Effective Institutions Project.

On October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued Executive Order 14110 “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The...

A key issue in developing quantum computers is the implementation of quantum error correction. If physical noise corrupts one or more qubits, error correction codes make it possible to detect and correct those errors, so long as the amount of...

The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly)....

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for A "Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science.

From the Federation of American Scientists:

**Many antibodies that scientists...

Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in 2000 and 2004, while in 2016 and 2020 the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.

Linear...

Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where...

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of...