The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

In June 2020, TikTok was banned in India on national security grounds. A recent warming in relations between India and China have some speculating that the ban might be lifted in 2025. See more here: https://www.hindustantimes..

See this Sixty Symbols video.

This market closes when scientific consensus has reached near certainty on this issue, either by finding a black hole, or by exploring the solar system enough that it's considered essentially impossible. Close date on...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly...

This market will resolve according to the NFL rookie running back who records the most rushing yards in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season.

If two or more players are tied for the most rushing yards, this market will resolve to the player whose...

I'm generally against gendered pronouns for the reasons given here, and I don't have a strong internal gender identity as I described in @/IsaacKing/if-i-start-identifying-as-a-woman-w. As such, I've been thinking about asking people to use gender...

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Bets cancelled if China invades Taiwan by the end of 2024

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

This market will resolve according to the song ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global →...

This will be resolved based on my judgement of the vibes of top Rationalist voices in 4 years.

If through their Tweets and Substack posts, I get the sense that they are unhappy with Trump's reforms, and that what got done was extremely damaging,...

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for HYPE (HYPEUSDT) between September 4, 2025, 16:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in...

In the upcoming La Liga game between Levante UD and Athletic Club, scheduled for November 29 at 12:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Levante UD and Athletic Club combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is...

This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the second round of the 2025 Chilean Presidential Election.

For...

Tumblr recently indicated they will be implementing ActivityPub support. It is unclear what timeline or subset of features

Therefore this is part of a series of markets

This market resolves instantly to YES if I am able to, without going through a...

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for November 28 at 2:00 PM ET:

If the Texas State Bobcats win, the market will resolve to "Texas State Bobcats".

If the Seattle Redhawks win, the market will resolve to "Seattle Redhawks".

If the game is...