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Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 21?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-14

This question will resolve as YES if China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surpasses that of the United States before December 31, 2050, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

The resolution will not take into account other economic...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 92
Volume: M44k
What will be the value of the FAO Food Price Index for October 2025?
34%
At least 126.0, but less than 132.0
26%
At least 120.0, but less than 126.0
21%
At least 132.0, but less than 138.0
10%
At least 114.0, but less than 120.0
4%
At least 138.0, but less than 144.0
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 99
Forecasters: 24
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $63k
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-30?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 30, 2026 If Deportivo Alavés wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $796
Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-17

At Comic-Con, Marvel announced that Dr. Doom will be played by Robert Downey Jr. Will this character be some derivative of Tony Stark? Or will it be a completely new character who happens to be played by RDJ?

Last updated: 2025-05-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M2.7k
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.6k
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.1k
A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates
Will DK be used to win a Major before 2030? (Melee)
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-18

In order to resolve YES, the winner of a major needs to win a game with DK during Grand Finals, Winner's Finals, Winner's Semifinals, Loser's Finals, Loser's Semifinals, or Loser's Quarterfinals.

I will be deferring to Liquipedia on which...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M163
Will the New Jersey Devils win the Eastern Conference?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Eastern Conference during the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Eastern Conference (e.g., elimination from the playoffs), the...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Before 2032, will at least $30 billion (2021 USD) in new funding be authorized via new legislation toward US pandemic preparedness?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In September 2021, the US White House released a pandemic preparedness plan — American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming our Capabilities. The White House says that the aim is to "lean forward and catalyze the advances in science, technology, and...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 181
Will Emily Watson win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $575
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

As our collective memory of the devastation and fear of nuclear war recedes the risks of a nation using these weapons feels more tangible.

Global tensions are increasing worldwide with nuclear powered and nuclear-backed nations only serving to make...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.6k
Will the 28th amendment of the US Constitution be ratified by 2030?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-30

Resolves YES if the 34th state ratifies an amendment that was passed by the Congress, meeting the 2/3 requirement, by the end of 2029. Resolves NO if not.

Aug 1, 5:54pm: There are currently 27 amendments https://en.wikipedia..

Last updated: 2025-04-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M4.9k
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $705k
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played first by any performer during the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $209
Will Travis Hunter be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.7k
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

Former South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is scheduled to be sentenced on January 21, 2026 in his criminal case including charges of aiding an insurrection and perjury, among other charges, related to his involvement in Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.4k
Will Mateo rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-19

This market will resolve according to the male name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.9k
Rams vs. Bears: 1H O/U 24.5
> 99%
Under
< 1%
Over
Last updated: 2026-01-19

In the first half of the NFL game between Rams and Bears, scheduled for January 18 at 6:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Rams and Bears combine to score 25 or more points in the first half.

If the combined first half total is...

Last updated: 2026-01-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k

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