MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT between August 31, 2025, 18:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $51k
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Bundesliga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $21k
Will a popular forecasting platform accept function definitions as forecasting questions by Jan 1, 2028?
75%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-17

Also see this question, for Jan 1 2025.

In the future, it might be possible for general-purpose forecasting platforms to accept functions as forecasts. Question writers would provide function definitions, and forecasters would provide programmatic...

Last updated: 2025-03-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M221
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2028?
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Resolves as YES if Xi Jinping is the leader of China on December 31st 2028.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-193ddd0899e4

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-f4bb79318ae8...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M1.1k
Will Saudi Arabia obtain nuclear weapon(s) by 2035?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-07

This question will resolve YES if there is a consensus that Saudi Arabia has obtained nuclear weapon(s) by 2035. The weapons must be under the control of the Saudi Arabian government.

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M711
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

The Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongnam Province.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.7k
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $19k
Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2026?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Any job in the administration will count, but an outside contractor role, like Musk and Ramaswamy's "Department of Government Efficiency," will not.

Clarification: RFK must have the position on 1/1/2026 for this to resolve YES. If he gets fired...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M14k
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,600 on December 10?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10k
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-12-09?
40%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 9, 2025 If Birmingham City FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $73k
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
41%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $98
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

RSA-256

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 44
Volume: M5.1k
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse..

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.7k
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift on the 13th of any month?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-17

Resolves either when he proposes or N/A if they break up.

Resolves YES if the proposal is known to be on the 13th day of any month.

Last updated: 2025-05-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M8.3k
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on December 13?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.8k
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
93%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket..

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $25k
Will Cristo Reyes win the PDC World Darts Championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-08

The Paddy Power World Darts Championship is scheduled to take place at London's Alexandra Palace from December 11 until January 3.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.

If a listed player is...

Last updated: 2025-12-08
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.2k
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2032 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 69
Volume: M4.7k
Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-31

All of the following markets are about game-playing AI developments in 2025, mostly concerning various specific games:

[markets]

This market will resolve YES iff at least one of these linked markets resolves YES by January 15th, 2026.

Last updated: 2025-03-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M2.7k

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus