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Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-29

I don't play a lot of chess so if there are ambiguity, assume I was not aware. If it is ambiguous and no clarifications were made beforehand, then I will resolve with my best judgement, following the spirit of the market.

Resolves YES if there is...

Last updated: 2025-05-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M935
Will I still be active on Manifold a year after the Great Pivot?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-05-16

[image]

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 40
Volume: M13k
Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.
75%
Likely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Leavitt say "Trillion" during the next White House Press Briefing?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Karoline Leavitt says the listed term during the next White House press briefing she participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $244
Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-17

See original market for more details:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/DeanValentine/will-aienabled-advancements-in-comp)

Last updated: 2025-04-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.0k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $96k
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $543k
Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

Martial Law following definitions laid out here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States?wprov=sfla1

This question is only about nationwide martial law, not about a local or isolated martial law declaration in one city or...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M1.8k
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 The American Express tournament?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The American Express tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the 2026 The American Express tournament based on the official rules of the tournament,...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $544
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.5k
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15621/macron-no-longer-president-before-2027/ In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial pension reform bill, which he pushed through without a...

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 82
Volume: M26k
Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Record of the Year?
34%
“Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish
26%
“Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter
11%
“Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar
10%
“Fortnight,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone
10%
“Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 61
Forecasters: 23
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest is equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is Artemis Analytics, using the...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.0k
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Phantom officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable....

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.0k
Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025–26 NHL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A team will be considered to have made the Playoffs if it qualifies for the postseason bracket under the official rules...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.0k
Will Amine Gouiri be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.3k
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
79%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-01

Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, in any year from 2023 to 2030, inclusive, the total global...

Last updated: 2025-05-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 39
Volume: M3.5k
Will Omar Marmoush be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.1k
Will Kentucky win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated),...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $51k
Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Kwasi Kwarteng, born 26 May 1975, is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Spelthorne since 2010. Before entering...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 169
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 27?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-24

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-01-24
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k

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