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Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this,...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.5k
Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In his book Extraterrestrial, Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as 'Oumuamua is "interstellar technology built by aliens".

Inspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded The Galileo Project in 2021 to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 70
Will the GDP of the US be greater than 40 trillion dollars in 2030?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-09

Resolves as YES if the nominal GDP of the United States is strictly greater than 40 trillion dollars in the year from January 1st 2030 - December 31st 2030.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-the-gdp-of-the-us-be-greater-t-ce01a3d037ef...

Last updated: 2025-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M234
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.1k
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.

The "exploitation purposes" prerequisite needs to (more or less) be ruled to relate to the sex work that the trafficked persons performed or were intended to perform.

Feb 3, 10:59pm: Will...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 23
Volume: M4.2k
Will Jay Jones leave or decline to take office by Jan. 31?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Jay Jones resigns from, is removed from, otherwise vacates, or unambiguously announces that he will not assume, the office of attorney general of Virginia, by the End Date listed below. A...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 442
Will Starship fly intercontinental by 2030?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

Point to point flights

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M787
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in November?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1 minute candle for HYPEUSDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will Israel deploy Iron Beam defense in 2025?
78%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

According to official statement IDF spokesperson or so.

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M7.6k
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $890
Will Destiny stream on Twitch again before the end of 2025?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

@/strutheo/will-destiny-stream-on-twitch-again

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M8.5k
Will Sophia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.3k
Will Trump pressure the EU to stop supporting Ukraine?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-26

Donald Trump has recently paused U.S. military aid to Ukraine, creating significant uncertainty about future American support. While he has advocated for a peace deal that many analysts consider favorable to Russia, he has not explicitly called for...

Last updated: 2025-04-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M343
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-18

What will NVIDIA's market cap be on Jan 1st, 2026, in $ Trillions? https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/market_cap

I'll use ycharts to resolve.

NVIDIA's market cap recently jumped to over $1B. If AI experiences a much larger takeoff in the next few...

Last updated: 2025-03-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.4k
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Consensys’ market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $757
Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

When GPT4 was released in 2023, Prompt Engineering suddenly became a thing.

I've been thinking of what kind of new jobs could Humanoid Robots create. I'm assuming that AI Humanoid Robots will need supervisors to make sure they don't make a mess,...

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M513
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-28

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15537/new-nuclear-armed-state-by-2030/

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with nine countries currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear...

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M2.1k
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
36%
Gavin Newsom
15%
A. Ocasio-Cortez
7%
Josh Shapiro
7%
Andy Beshear
6%
Pete Buttigieg
Last updated: 2025-12-01
Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 1014k
Cagliari Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
69%
Over
32%
Under
Last updated: 2025-12-01

In the upcoming Serie A game between Cagliari Calcio and AS Roma, scheduled for December 7 at 9:00 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Cagliari Calcio and AS Roma combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is less...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $45k
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-01

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that...

Last updated: 2025-12-01
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $244

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