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Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be released from detention?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/

As of this market's creation, there is ongoing civil unrest in Israel over the arrest and detention of several IDF reservists over the...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.7k
Will Elon Musk be assassinated?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

This will resolve YES if the future passing (all of us will go, eventually) of Elon Musk will be a direct result of an assassination attempt on him.

[image]

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 35
Volume: M7.5k
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-19

Resolves YES if he agrees with this publicly. Otherwise, at market close, I'll ask him somehow, and resolve based on the answer. Resolves N/A if he doesn't answer me.

https://www.lesswrong..

Last updated: 2025-05-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 99
Volume: M49k
Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
66%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind.

AlphaFold (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. It...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $657k
Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Amazon recently denied plans to display tariff costs on product pages. This market predicts whether Amazon will reverse this decision and begin displaying tariff costs before December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on official announcements from...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M493
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-05

In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between Paris Saint-Germain FC and Olympique de Marseille, scheduled for February 8 at 2:45 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Paris Saint-Germain FC and Olympique de Marseille each score at least one goal...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.4k
Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) was enacted in 1970 and established a process for the review of the environmental impact of projects within the federal purview. It also established the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), an office of...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that GitHub has imposed a stringent ban on openly available voice cloning projects submitted to its platform before January 1st 2026.

If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M2.1k
Will Blues win?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-02-05

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 14 2026 If Blues wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $208
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeonggi Province.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.6k
Will Hamburger SV be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by the Bundesliga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $415
Will MIRI receive more than 1 billion USD in funding in a single year before 2030?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-03

Clarifications:

  • MIRI: Refers to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

  • Single Year: The funding amount must be received within one calendar year (January 1 to December 31).

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M5.6k
Has Kim Jong Un made a strategic decision to go to war?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

Recently, North Korea made headlines by officially abandoning its goal of reuniting with the South and subsequently amending its constitution to determine South Korea its "primary foe and principal enemy" and then demolishing the reunification...

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.7k
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during the State of the Union address?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $465
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Art Ross Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Art Ross Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-06-15

According to Wikipedia, there have been 58 assassinated American politicians, with the most recent being Linda Collins in 2019.

Will there be another American political assassination by the end of 2025 (as determined by Wikipedia)?

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M1.7k
Will Toyota still be a top 3 car manufacturer by revenue in 2030?
53%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Currently they are at top 2 after Volkswagen and very far ahead of number 3.

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 47
Volume: M7.3k
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.7k
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $429k
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
69%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-05

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any...

Last updated: 2026-02-05
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k

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