Will resolve YES if the US Government formally withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while Donald J. Trump is acting US President.

Resolution will NOT be dependent on A 2/3 Senate super majority or act of Congress if Trump...

Donald Trump's plan for Gaza includes the forced deportation of its inhabitants, which he intends to find new refuge in Egypt and Jordan. Abdullah II was received on Tuesday in the Oval Office by Donald Trump. In this reunion, Jordan’s king promised...

60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is from Russia and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by Russia/USSR. The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as...

This question resolves positively if a a person identifying as a woman participates as a driver in a Formula 1 Grand Prix event in the 2024 or 2025 championships

This market refers to the CBB game between Florida and Auburn scheduled for April 5, 6:09 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Florida wins against Auburn by 2.5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this game is...

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2025 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2025 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may...

Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)

Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability."

This...

Will x.com change its logo before 2027 ?

Logo change don't include special event logo change or any one time logo.

Logo change can be variation in shape, proportions or texture, as long as it is permanent.

[tweet]Republican House member Matt Gaetz has strongly hinted at a potential campaign for the 2026 Florida governorship. Will he be successful? If so, market will resolve as YES.

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 4 at 10:00PM ET: If the Denver Nuggets win, the market will resolve to “Nuggets”. If the Golden State Warriors win, the market will resolve to “Warriors”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup based off...

A Metaculus question asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are being developed for dogs, with the benefit of...

To qualify, the material must act as a superconductor above 0C.

For comparison, the recent Super Mario Bros movie made 146 million. Resolves N/A if no large theatrical release.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election

20.5% of the votes in 2022.

If 20.5% this resolves NO.

If Sweden Democrats have changed name, but are the same party, the result still counts.

If Sweden Democrats are not part of the...

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Tesla's market capitalization is greater than or equal to $1 trillion USD at market close on December 31, 2025. It resolves to NO if Tesla's market capitalization is less than $1 trillion USD at...

Related: In the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary Election, who will be endorsed for prime minister by a party on the ballot?

This question is taken from this bet on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and Michael P Dierickx challenged the prediction.