In 2020 China's GDP increased by 2.3% while the US' decreased by 2.3%. Furthermore in 2021 China's GDP grew 8.1% to 114.367 trillion yuan, while the US' grew 5.7% to $22.99 trillion. China's faster economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic...

Germany has been seriously considering both decriminalizing Marijuana and allowing its legal distribution "by 2024". However, they face significant challenges and both the legal system in general and Germany in particular often faces delays.

This...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...

Someone in the EleutherAI discord is reporting that finetuning Pythia models of different sizes on the same data in the same order is giving spookily similar loss curves, just vertically shifted.

[image]Will training Pythia models from scratch in...

A second-round presidential election is scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the first candidate Franco Parisi announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election, within this...

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None...

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-scales-back-neom-plans-focus-world-cup-asian-games

The project is likely scaled down quite a bit, but they have the hard goal of building a football stadium for the 2034 FIFA World Cup and are...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 30, 2025 If Strømsgodset IF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Will there be a manifold user who is either a billionaire in USD or billionaire in mana by 2030. This will be measured in 2024 USD so adjust for inflation in 2030. Official manifold accounts will not count. Any profit or balance manipulation will...

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price...

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed song that...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming that the US government orchestrated or was directly involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks. Otherwise, this market will resolve...

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative...

In a blog post "Reflections" (https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections) Sam Altman says "We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."

This market will resolve yes if, by...

A direct payment sent to every (some minor exceptions are fine) taxpayer funded exclusively with a portion of the savings delivered by DOGE.

Resolves yes if it's either paid or funding is clearly allocated and payments scheduled by the close date....

This market is for predicting whether Magnus Carlsen will become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by the year 2031 in classical chess.

The market will resolve to YES if Magnus Carlsen wins any FIDE World Chess Championship in classical chess...

Will major electronics retailers (Best Buy, Amazon, etc in US; other countries also count) sell consumer storage devices (most likely SSD) with LLM (or other neural network) files pre-loaded? That will provide a large buff for fast inference on...

BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves

In the upcoming La Liga game between Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano, scheduled for December 7 at 12:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is...

[POTENTIAL SPOILER FOR DOCTOR WHO CHRISTMAS SPECIAL 2023]

Mrs Flood is the neighbour of new companion Ruby Sunday, who appears in the special Christmas episode of 'Doctor Who' entitled 'The Church on Ruby Road'. While initially seemed unimportant,...

Will Donald J Trump be inaugurated as US President again before 2025?