MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
Will an Apple Watch have the ability to measure CO2 in the air by 2028?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

If an Apple Watch is released that can measure ambient CO2 levels before or on Jan 1 2028, this resolves YES, otherwise NO

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M418
[@mattyb’s 500th market spectacular] Will Bitcoin reach $500k before this market reaches 5k traders?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Inspired by @AmmonLam

Will the price of Bitcoin reach 500k before this market has 5,000 traders? This is traders who have ever traded in the market, not currently holding positions in the market.

Live BTC price. Market will extend as needed.

Note:...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M683
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

If listed person/thing is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed person is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $72k
By 2028, will Aella announce she's in love with an AI boyfriend?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

Also works for another genres of AI (women, non-binary...)

Related market

[markets]

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M1.2k
Will Ren Lin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $117k
Will neither OP_CTV nor OP_CAT be activated in 2025?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-11-23

Two major proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network are currently under consideration, OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347).

This market will resolve according to whichever of the following options happens by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If one...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.5k
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Stable's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.0k
Will Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2026?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

Mike Johnson is removed from the position of Speaker of the House through a successful "motion to vacate" vote before January 1, 2026

Mike Johnson resigns from the position of Speaker before...

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.1k
Will there be a cat on Mars any time through 2036?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-06

Cat+mars+low gravity=fun?

Last updated: 2025-05-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.4k
What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 16 May 2025?
41%
At least 1,000.00, but less than 1,500.00
36%
At least 500.00, but less than 1,000.00
11%
At least 1,500.00, but less than 2,000.00
10%
Less than 500.00
2%
At least 2,000.00, but less than 2,500.00
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 110
Forecasters: 19
Will Jair Bolsonaro be the #2 searched person on Google this year?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #2 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ (navigate: Global →...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.5k
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2065?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2065. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Venus must occur within a distance of no more than...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M2.4k
In Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections and Public Safety, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-23

44.44% (8 out of 18) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 0.00% of the time.

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★☆☆☆
FantasySCOTUS
Forecasts: 18
Will I regret buying two unopened Magic the Gathering "The Dark" booster packs for $150 a year from now?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-27

Bought 2x packs for $150 due to @ZacParker 's suggestions

No regrets:

If the packs are worth more and/or i sell them

If the packs are worth the same, but I am happy with the purchase and think they will be worth more in the future

I choose to...

Last updated: 2025-04-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 31
Volume: M2.0k
Will AY win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.6k
Will any of the 19 defendants in Fulton County Trump case be removed to federal court?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-04

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4162801-can-trumps-co-defendants-make-a-federal-case-out-of-the-georgia-indictment/

Several of Trump's co-defendents are already petitioning a federal court to remove the case. It is widely speculated that Trump...

Last updated: 2025-06-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M4.4k
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-04

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if a court with appropriate jurisdiction rules that President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" announced in early April 2025 are unlawful, AND enforcement of these tariffs subsequently ceases as a direct...

Last updated: 2025-06-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 31
Volume: M5.7k
[Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27148/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as...

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M12k
Will Infinex launch a token by March 31, 2026?
87%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a...

Last updated: 2025-11-23
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k
If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-08

@/strutheo/if-kamala-wins-will-the-usa-pass-mo

Last updated: 2025-05-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M1.2k

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus