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Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". ...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.3k
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $239k
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $64k
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.8k
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.

If the party...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.9k
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

The release of GPT-4 in recent months have generated lots of enthusiasm for AI research, as well as fears of impending AI doom. But how sustainable is it really, and is it just simply another hype cycle that will soon fizzle out?

Will settle "Yes"...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M6.5k
Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-18

Resolves NO if at any point before Jan 21st, 2029 independence of the Federal Reserve has been reduced. I'm open to refining resolution criteria until Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st 2025.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792

Elon...

Last updated: 2025-05-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M597
Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve according to the actor ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ (navigate: Global →...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.4k
Will Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut win the HLTV Player of the Year award?
88%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

The HLTV awards are scheduled to be held on January 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Player of the Year award.

If for any reason no winner is declared by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) become extinct in the current century?
40%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-03

This market is about the extinction risk of the Polar Bear species in the current century. This market will resolve YES if the Polar Bear is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia..

Last updated: 2025-05-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M399
Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-10

An undeclared war is festering all along the hill country that separates Israel and Lebanon. It involves nearly as many troops as the war in the Gaza Strip. So far it's a largely static battle of missiles, artillery, bombing raids and stealthy...

Last updated: 2025-05-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M9.7k
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $346k
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BTS (방탄소년단) releases any new music track credited to the group between June 3 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The track must be publicly released through major music...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $808
Will the New England Patriots make the playoffs?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No".

If the listed team qualifies for the playoffs early, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the listed team is...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.6k
Will The Project be an issue in the 2028 election?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-02

Will any serious candidate in the 2028 election (with over 4% support) publicly state their position, for or against, a government program to build an AGI supercluster, similar to The Project described by Leopold Aschenbrenner in June 2024...

Last updated: 2025-05-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M1.7k
OpenAI discovers the first proof of the collatz conjecture before 2026
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that OpenAI discovered the first valid proof of the Collatz Conjecture before January 1st 2026. Only proofs made public before 2026 are considered, and the public release date determines which proof is...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M2.4k
@realDonaldTrump banned from X during presidency?
31%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

banned/suspended for at least 24 hours

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M221
Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Since partition, India and Pakistan have had a tense relationship and many conflicts. In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the Kargil war.

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 177
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ventual's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable...

Last updated: 2025-11-28
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k

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