If apple announces it but it is not available for purchase to the general public by close, that won't count.

This market resolves YES if the AfD still recognizably exists in 2030. If it rebrands but otherwise retains similar enough structures, this resolves YES. If the party splits, but there remains a recognizable core AfD, this resolves YES.

If the party...

This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.

Will you be able to buy a fully autonomous, Level 5 self-driving car in the US by 2040? While the development of self-driving cars is moving quickly, there are still many challenges to overcome before they become widely available.

[image]This...

Resolves YES if Destiny and Melina earnestly announce they're getting back together or if Destiny and Melina start living together again at any point.

Resolves NO if neither an earnest announcement nor a resumption of shared living happens.

This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as "GPT-5" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Andrej Karpathy returns at OpenAI, post his February 2024 departure.

A "major successor" is defined as a...

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in the Czech Republic on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to according to the popular vote share won by the listed Party/Coalition.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets,...

Resolves YES if Eliezer Yudkowsky is the recipient of a Turing Award before the year 2038.

Resolves NO if 2038 begins and Eliezer Yudkowsky has not yet been the recipient of a Turing Award.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB World Series.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the World Series based on the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this...

The second round of the Bolivian presidential election is scheduled to take place on 19 October 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the...

Datasource for homelessness will be https://sfgov.org/scorecards/safety-net/homeless-population

Datasource for population will be https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23130/san-francisco/population or equivalant

2022: 7754/3,318,000 = .2%

I will...

Resolution Criteria:

The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:

The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 25% or higher

The labor force participation rate drops by 25% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%. In...

WikiLeaks is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted "insurance files".

There has been much speculation about the...

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2025 Bucharest...

Husband is interviewing for jobs in San Francisco, we currently live in Seattle. Baseline plan is that he moves to SF and we fly back and forth on the weekends.

Pros of the plan:

-basically dream job for him

-will make his resume significantly...

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A formal signing...

This market resolves Yes if these two markets resolve in the same direction:

@/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p@/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

It resolves "No" if they resolve in opposite directions. In the...

The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.

If Jeff Bezos spends at least 7 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market...

Taylor Swift's new album 'The Life of a Showgirl' is scheduled to be released on October 3, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's new album 'The Life of a Showgirl' has less than 2,500,000 in sales for the chart date of 'The...

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football SEC Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025...