To date there is no vaccine to protect against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of all diseases for which there vaccine development has been attempted HIV/AIDS is perhaps the most difficult...
Belgium has a strict divide between Flandern and Wallonia: Language, Economy, Politics. In the last poll in Flandern, over 30% supported a separation from Wallonia.
Resolves YES if at least 20% of Belgian territory becomes independent or joins...
Resolves yes if by the end of 2034 at least one biological human has pony ears. The ears must appear pony-like and grant similar hearing to ponies. This includes the ability to move to detect where sounds are coming from and to express emotions.
The...
This market will resolve based on the total number of votes cast in the 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary election, scheduled for June 24, 2025.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the...
Will I find a violation of universal free fall in my experiment?
If this market resolves NA, this one will resolve NA as well. If it resolves YES, this one will resolve YES as well. If it resolves NO, then I will generate a random integer i between...
By mid 2028 he publicly makes at least three statements stating they should be a state
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified details regarding the posting of the song:
The minimum action for 'posting the song' will be to share a link.
This link will direct to the song on platforms like...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,500.00 (inclusive) and $2,600.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...
Biological immortality is an absence of aging. Specifically it is the absence of a sustained increase in rate of mortality as a function of chronological age.
A cell or organism that does not experience aging, or ceases to age at some point, is...
This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet between Ray Kurzweil (YES) and Mitch Kapor (NO). It's a much more stringent Turing test than just "person on the street chats informally with a bot and can't tell it from a human". In fact, it's...
Resolves Yes if Manifold announces (or enacts) a closure, merger, or any other plan that would result in the site/business shutting down or substantially changing course in a "smaller future" direction, before 1 July 2025. Announcing "Maintenance...
The United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31st, 2020, after a period of negotiation and uncertainty. Since then, both parties have continued to negotiate and establish new trade agreements. However, some in the UK remain deeply divided...
The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by July 27, 2025, to elect half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years.
This market will...
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB NL Central Division.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the NL Central Division based on the rules of the MLB, this market will immediately resolve to “No”...
Resolves YES if Gregorian calendar (mostly concerning years counting) is no more in use before the day that is currently said to be 01.01.2041.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve...
The word 'drama' isn't meant to downplay what's happening, just trying to identify the situation clearly.
Resolves YES if Destiny is convicted of a felony related to recording or sharing sexual materials.
Resolves NO when (as far as the public...
Will any horse win the Triple Crown in 2026 (all three events: Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes)?
The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are expected to be scheduled soon.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Netherlands House of...
According to my current understanding, the California 'builder's remedy' policy has opened up a much more permissive permitting regime for residential buildings in many cities, as a result of the state finding those cities' ordinary rules to be out...
SpaceX generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its Starlink satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue..
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