Resolves YES if Keir Starmer is PM on 31 December 2029.

(Note that this is at least 2 general elections away from when this question was created (4 June 2024) as there must be an election by July 2029. However, Starmer doesn't have to be PM for all...

Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Full Citizenship Definition:

Both naturalized and natural-born citizens are included as full citizens.

Resolves YES if Perplexity is acquired by December 31st 2025. Resolves NO otherwise.

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or...

Includes test firings.

Current record is 542 seconds, using lithium, fluorine, and hydrogen.

The Critics Choice Awards are presented annually by the American Critics Choice Association to honor achievements in film. For the Critics Choice Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced by December 5, 2025, followed by the ceremony...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions...

Takeoff counts as a launch.

@/NcyRocks/will-artemis-ii-launch-by-the-end-o

@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-july

@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026

@/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2027

See...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aztec's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Solana (SOL/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower...

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or...

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round..

A cyberattack disrupted services at around 70 percent of Iran’s fuel stations in mid-December 2023 (Al Jazeera). A group linked to Israel called Predatory Sparrow has publicly taken credit for the disruption. Israel and Iran have a long history of...

Scope

This is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both...

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2026) compared to the last report (which can be found here).

If the United States'...

Resolves YES if Slay the Spire 2 has >=95% positive reviews 2 weeks after its initial early access release.

Closing time will be extended if the game is delayed.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...

OPTIC ran a prediction/forecasting competition last April in DC.

One of the competitors asked me to make this market for them.