After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments...
On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a music festival, and over 200 hostages were...
More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the...
The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by...
Some effective altruists, including Toby Ord and William MacAskill, have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating existential risk or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially...
Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this...
The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast is set to expire on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has...
On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, tweeted that "LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025." He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar...
The Thylacine, or ‘Tasmanian Tiger’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion,...
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The...
Question is largely taken from these two questions about the cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD (alternatively ) and labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD. As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and...
New START is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026.
We ask a pair of questions about the...
Semaglutide (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug approved in June 2021 which has demonstrated 15-18% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection..
The Academic Freedom Index (AFI) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach,...
Recent headlines from Elon Musk and various companies suspending or quitting advertising on the social media platform has observers speculating about the financial future of the firm (BBC, CNN, CNBC). A bankruptcy filing for the corporate successor...
Related Questions on Metaculus:
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Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many...
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