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Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.1k
Will the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

This market resolves yes if the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election remains alive and in office until Inauguration Day in 2028.

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M3.5k
Will global peak oil production occur before 2026?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2026 and 2027 from a peak in or before the year 2025, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2025.

Resolves NO if...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.8k
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.5k
Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $69k
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?
52%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of March 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $56k
Exact Score: FC Nantes 3 - 2 Angers SCO?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

In the upcoming Ligue 1 game between FC Nantes and Angers SCO, scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the FC Nantes vs. Angers SCO match originally scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET,...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★☆☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $63
Will Neuralink successfully enable telepathy using its technology by 2030?
69%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-27

Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of two Neuralink patients sending any kind of signal/information to each other by 2030.

Last updated: 2025-04-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 63
Volume: M3.8k
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on March 3?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.4k
Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The two noteworthy dips in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now growing anxiety that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on a far greater scale, in everything...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26
AHL: Lehigh Valley Phantoms vs. Utica Comets
> 99%
Utica Comets
< 1%
Lehigh Valley Phantoms
Last updated: 2026-03-04

In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for 2026-03-03: If Lehigh Valley Phantoms win, the market will resolve to "Lehigh Valley Phantoms". If Utica Comets win, the market will resolve to "Utica Comets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★☆☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $840
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-22

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31620)I will resolve this according to the Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, Israel establishes a formal...

Last updated: 2025-05-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M955
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-03-04

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly...

Last updated: 2026-03-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Conditional on such a study being run, will an independent RCT evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size equal to or greater than 0.3?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-28

See this ACX post for general context: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety?s=r

"Independent" will be defined as in this related question: https://manifold..

Last updated: 2025-04-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M199
Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in theaters before EOY 2026?
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-30

Must be a directing and or writing credit

Last updated: 2025-03-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M14k
Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page.

A classic critique of cryonics is that the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 130
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?
63%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-14

This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2025 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee. This requires an AI to generate...

Last updated: 2025-05-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M5.4k
Will Ye (Kanye West) come out as transgender or nonbinary by the end of Transgender Day of Remembrance?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-21

[tweet]resolves YES if, before this market closes, Ye publicly, earnestly does any of the following:

calls himself trans/transgender

calls himself nonbinary

clearly identifies with any gender but solely and wholly male

overt jokes won't count,...

Last updated: 2025-05-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M1.2k
Will there be a serious European cloud offering in 2028?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

[image]Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if by market close, April 30 2028, there exists at least one European cloud service provider that:

Has at least 15% market share in the European cloud market

Is headquartered in Europe with...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 35
Volume: M2.8k

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