You definitely won’t be here. Manifold probably won’t be around. But let’s argue about moving goalposts and what even is intelligence.

I will resolve this in the most controversial way...

This market will resolve according to the listed player who is drafted third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled or the third overall pick is not definitively known by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve...

Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?

Source: Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040

This market will resolve based on public reports a machine of similar quality to the one in this story:

https://www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/epistemologicalNightmare.html

Resolves YES if Twitter goes down and does not come back online, and/or catastrophic data loss (e.g. all the tweets and accounts are gone) occurs and recovery from backup fails.

Resolves NO otherwise.

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring.

From the Federation of American Scientists:

Wearable...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2028, at least one U.S. citizen is confirmed to have been detained in El Salvador's Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). The person must have been a citizen at the time...

Resolves YES if there is a reliable and widely used medical intervention that reverses hair graying associated with aging. The intervention must cause existing hair follicles growing gray hair to instead grow repigmented hair closely matching the...

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between June 1, 2025, and June 30, 2025, inclusive, the United States conducts one or more airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes targeting locations within Iran. The market will...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". This market includes any...

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Some people in SF are trying to recall him. If he is voted out of office before his next official election (Nov 2026), this resolves yes.

Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead...

In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial pension reform bill, which he pushed through without a final vote by the National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. ...

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during December 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during...

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC....

This market will resolve to "Cloud9 New York" if Cloud9 New York win against Boston Breach in the named Call of Duty match in the Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers, scheduled for January 18 at 3:00PM ET.

This market will...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during December 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved...