Metaforecast

Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?

55%

About Even

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $453

Will Sam win Season Thirteen of Jet Lag: The Game?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolves YES if Sam is a solo winner or a member of the winning team

I will adjust the closing date to before the final episode airs

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 12

Volume: M1.8k

Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?

12%

Unlikely

Background: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-gender-passports-canada-1.7440414?cmp=rss

Examples that would resolve NO:

Repeated/widespread incidents of gender-neutral passport holders being detained or denied entry -- even if this only occurs...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 14

Volume: M690

Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 28?

52%

About Even

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $13k

Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?

38%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $2.9k

Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $2.7k

Will Putin be embalmed within 1 year of death like other leaders in Russia?

5%

Very unlikely

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_mummies

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M657

After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity

20%

Unlikely

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)

★★☆☆☆

GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

4%

Very unlikely

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $11k

Will Sepp Kuss win another Grand Tour in his career?

10%

Very unlikely

This question will be resolved if Sepp Kuss wins a General Classement in a Grand Tour or retires. The Giro d'Italia, the Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana are classified, under normal circumstances, as Grand Tours with 21 or 20 stages. For...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 19

Volume: M2.8k

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?

> 99%

Virtually certain

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $29k

Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $6.6k

Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $3.8k

Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 26?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $14k

Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

17%

Unlikely

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $17k

YES stock (Permanent)

90%

Likely

I will reinvest 1/2 of all funds I make from this market into the market; I will always buy YES.

My assumption is that all funds will come from Unique Trader Bonuses, but if market tips, referral bonuses, etc. come into play, I will likewise...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 18

Volume: M797

Will Roger Goodell be replaced as commissioner of the NFL before the Buffalo Bills make it to the Super Bowl?

82%

Likely

Resolves when Goodell is no longer the commissioner (retires, dies, is replaced, etc.). An early announcement of a future retirement will not be sufficient to resolve if still in-season.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 16

Volume: M2.4k

Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025

10%

Very unlikely

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will step down or be replaced as CEO of Tesla by the end of 2025. Resolution will be based on official Tesla announcements, SEC filings, or reputable news sources confirming Musk is no longer CEO..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 55

Volume: M15k

EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?

14%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of EdgeX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

★★★★☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $11k

Will the Pope win the 2025 Canadian Federal Election?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Pope is elected as the Prime Minister of Canada following the 2025 Canadian federal election. The market will resolve to "No" if the Pope is not elected as Prime Minister..

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M1.3k

Louisiana Presidential Winner

99%

Republican

1%

Democratic

Which party will win the popular vote in Louisiana at the 2024 US presidential election?

★★☆☆☆

Smarkets