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Will Animal Communication be Translated by 2030?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-30

Several animal groups, including cetaceans, corvids, cephalopods, and primates, have complex communication systems that some have argued meet linguistic criteria for language.

This market will resolve to YES if a non human animal communication...

Last updated: 2025-03-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M515
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 24?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Feb '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.4k
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,220,000 by March 1?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on March 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $198
Will there be more than 10 000 holders on the market “AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” by the end of 2025?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-01

This market resolves YES if the number of the position holders on the market “AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y) is more than 10 000 at...

Last updated: 2025-04-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 6
Volume: M2.4k
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 23 – Feb 27?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.2k
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in February?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $51k
Will any country implement a tax on meat products due to environmental concerns by the end of 2025? (M$300 subsidy)
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-28

Broad tax, after market creation. At least 5 million citizens.

Last updated: 2025-03-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 54
Volume: M2.3k
Will Elon Musk buy Hasbro within 6 months?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

This question resolves Yes if Elon Musk acquires Hasbro before May 28th.

This market also resolves Yes if it's acquired by xAI, Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, or another company Elon has strong control over.

[image]

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 29
Volume: M23k
Will an EPR2 nuclear reactor be running in France by 2036?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-28

The question is resolved yes as soon as an EPR2 reactor goes critical, not necessarily at full power or connected to the grid.

It is resolved no if on January 1st 2037, no such EPR2 got started.

If the name of the reactor changes (no longer called...

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.3k
Did Stephen Wolfram solve the second law of thermodynamics?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-29

Criteria for Resolution:

  1. Strong Scientific Consensus: There must be a strong scientific consensus that Stephen Wolfram has provided an explanation of the second law of thermodynamics from first principles (i.e., from a fundamental theory)..
Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M4.8k
Will the closing value of the S&amp;P 500 Index fall below 4,860.09 before 1 July 2025?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 103
Forecasters: 46
Will China close any high-speed rail line before 2030?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-18

https://x.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1706380228786872763?s=20

Last updated: 2025-05-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M499
Will "A Minecraft Movie" gross >$80 million during its domestic opening weekend?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "A Minecraft Movie" (2025).

I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).

For example, the...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M17k
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.3k
Will Drake have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise,...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Anze Kopitar win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Art Ross Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Art Ross Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
67%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.6k
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner
51%
BASEMENT BOYS
50%
MASONIC
Last updated: 2026-02-25

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between BASEMENT BOYS and MASONIC in the European Pro League Series 5 Play-In Group B, scheduled for February 10 at 4:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to "BASEMENT BOYS" if BASEMENT BOYS win Map 1...

Last updated: 2026-02-25
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-17

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

Method: The outcome will be determined...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 112
Volume: M28k
Will Manifold *BAN* duplicate questions in 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-08

[image]

Last updated: 2025-05-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.4k

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