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Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?
9%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-02

Resolves NO if humanity is still around in 2030. Otherwise, we just have to hope that who/whatever is left resolves it correctly.

Last updated: 2025-05-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 65
Volume: M19k
Will Trump outlive DeSantis?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-27

Resolves YES if Ron ReSantis dies before Donald Trump, NO if Trump dies before DeSantis.

Last updated: 2025-03-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M2.9k
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
89%
FC Barcelona
11%
Newcastle United FC
Last updated: 2026-03-15

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for March 18 at 1:45 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Newcastle United FC" if Newcastle United FC win the game by 2 or more goals.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FC Barcelona".

If...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.4k
Will Ausar Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
51%
Down
50%
Up
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.1k
Will Trump pardon more people during his second term than any president during a single term in history?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-14

During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump granted 237 acts of clemency, which was among the lowest in recent history. For comparison, Barack Obama granted 1,927 acts of clemency over eight years, with a substantial portion occurring in a...

Last updated: 2025-04-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M950
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in April 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Portsmouth FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
78%
Under
22%
Over
Last updated: 2026-03-15

In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Portsmouth FC and Derby County FC, scheduled for March 16 at 4:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Portsmouth FC and Derby County FC combine to score 4 or more goals in this game.

If the...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $64k
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 16?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

A city counts...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.6k
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $1B?
74%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Ledger's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $30k
Will Sonay Kartal be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Women’s...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-30

Could president Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Copilot Says:

The idea of a sitting president being charged with treason for their policies is highly unlikely and unprecedented. Treason is a very specific crime...

Last updated: 2025-04-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 46
Volume: M9.6k
Will Twitch still exist or be owned by Amazon by the end of 2024?
98%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-04-06

This resolves to YES if Twitch still exists or is still owned by Amazon by 2024-12-31.

This resolves to NO if Twitch doesn't exist or is no longer owned by Amazon by 2024-12-31.

Last updated: 2025-04-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M1.2k
Garp Stock
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 297
Volume: M134k
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $729k
Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-24

Must be in relation to Paul's role in AI Safety, and must be a standing US president

Resolves YES on any conclusive evidence that this has happened

Last updated: 2025-03-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M3.5k
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-03-15

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest assists per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-03-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.5k

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