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Is the Cybertruck bomber Matthew Livelsberger email on Shawn Ryan show authentic?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-04-20

Shawn Ryan had a podcast with a man who received an email on Proton Mail allegedly from Las Vegas Cybertruck bomber Matthew Livelsberger.

https://deepnewz..

Last updated: 2025-04-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M100k
Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $284
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
69%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by the English Premier League following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.0k
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-17

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 19, 2025 If Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18
Set 1 Winner: Cazaux vs Faria
51%
Cazaux
50%
Faria
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Cazaux and Jaime Faria in the Australian Open ATP, scheduled for January 18 2026. This market will resolve to “Cazaux” if Arthur Cazaux wins the first set. It will resolve to “Faria” if Jaime...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k
Will Ville Ottavainen win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $953
Will Facebook reinstate news sharing in Canada before the end of 2024?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-18

Without any weird restrictions & caveats

Last updated: 2025-04-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M7.0k
Will Rui Moreira win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will Netflix dip to $70 in January?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during January 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
31%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $17k
Will the St. Louis Blues make the NHL Playoffs?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025–26 NHL Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A team will be considered to have made the Playoffs if it qualifies for the postseason bracket under the official rules...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will FC Heidenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $8.1k
Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost $11bn annually. The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 38
Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-30

A debate on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, NBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX that features an all AI system (no human hybrid) that in a timely manner paraphrases and assigns truth judgments (it can be of any type/scale) to (a number of) claims (made by candidates in a...

Last updated: 2025-04-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.3k
Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-06

Resolves YES iff the volume-weighted-average-price of bitcoin on April 5 2025 (UTC) is above $100k.

Apr 18, 5:03pm: Will bitcoin be over 100k on April 5, 2025? → Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?

Last updated: 2025-04-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 198
Volume: M202k
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.9k
We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-17

Actual estimate: ~50%

Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This is a market to predict which player will win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is officially named the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
Will there be a war between the US and Iran before January 2026?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Background:

This question explores whether the recent tensions in the Middle East will escalate into a war.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M507
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-16

This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining...

Last updated: 2025-03-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M975
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-17

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of the named CEO's...

Last updated: 2026-01-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $618

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