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Will AOC run for President by 2040?
67%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Yes if she does, NO if she doesn't.

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M2.6k
Will "Trade" be said 5+ times during the Robinhood stream?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $146
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.1k
Will Jerome Powell be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person/thing is on TIME’s Person of the Year 2025 Shortlist. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A listed option which wins TIME’s Person of the Year 2025 will count as having made the...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Both China and the US have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 258
Will Ethereum price exceed 2700 before June 13?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-06-10

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Ethereum (ETH) exceeds $2,700 at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on June 14, 2025. The highest price reached during this period will be determined based on data from reputable...

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 6
Volume: M1.0k
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2030 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 55
Volume: M3.9k
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Syracuse Orange (W)
51%
Binghamton Bearcats
49%
Syracuse Orange
Last updated: 2025-12-12

In the upcoming WBB game, scheduled for December 16 at 7:00 PM ET:

If the Binghamton Bearcats win, the market will resolve to "Binghamton Bearcats".

If the Syracuse Orange win, the market will resolve to "Syracuse Orange".

If the game is...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7
Will a flagship (>60T training bytes) open-weights LLM from Meta which doesn't use a tokenizer be released in 2025?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-19

Resolves YES if Meta releases weights of an LLM trained on at least 60T bytes of data (roughly equivalent to the 15T tokens used to train the Llama 3.1 models) in 2025 which does not use standard fixed-vocabulary tokenization.

A qualifying model...

Last updated: 2025-05-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M1.2k
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3)
64%
Team Spirit
36%
Team Liquid
Last updated: 2025-12-12

This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win against Team Liquid in the named Dota 2 match in the DreamLeague Group Stage, scheduled for December 12 at 9:30AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win against...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?
71%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-23

According to Forbes, or a suitible replacement if they stop being reliable.

Last updated: 2025-04-23
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 42
Volume: M2.9k
Will TSLA reach $500 during Trump's term?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-10

Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a stock split or other share adjustment (e.g., share consolidation), the target price ($500) will be adjusted accordingly.

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M7.9k
Will street protests against Trump's agenda result in at least one death in 2025?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, has recently made headlines for comments suggesting opposition to President Trump's agenda, leading to discussions on social media about incitement and political strategy. Jeffries' statement about fighting...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M15k
Will I eventually make USACO Camp
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

9th grader (CO 2028), USACO Gold. WWPIT winner, XCamp TA, usaco.guide teacher. have learned all skill topics

also a very big skill issue

I am going to bet against myself. it is the best scenario according to ryan fu

If I make camp, who cares about...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M1.8k
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView,...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $153k
Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-01

Resolves Yes if any U.S. president or other national-level political actor invokes authority granted under the TikTok bill or any broadly similar legislation to force a sale or shutdown of Twitter. “Broadly similar” means any legislation understood...

Last updated: 2025-04-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 43
Volume: M6.8k
Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $129
Will the Baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) become Extinct by 2100?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-05-07

The Baiji, also known as the Chinese River Dolphin, is a species of freshwater dolphin native to the Yangtze River system in China. It is currently listed as Critically Endangered (possibly extinct) on the IUCN Red List. For more information about...

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M6.7k
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be alive by 31 December 2026?
91%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-06

This market explores the probability of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a noted environmental lawyer, author, and activist who has declared his candidacy for the presidential race in 2024, being alive at the end of 31 December 2026. Given Kennedy's public...

Last updated: 2025-05-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M580
Will Fogo launch a token by December 31 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-12

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fogo (https://x.com/fogo/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly...

Last updated: 2025-12-12
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.7k
Will Chuck Schumer stop being Senate Democratic Leader before the end of 2026?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-07

Chuck Schumer is in his 70s. Schumer was elected Leader of the Senate Democrats in 2016, succeeding Harry Reid. He has served as Senate Democratic Leader both in the minority and the majority.

Will Schumer stop being Senate Democratic Leader before...

Last updated: 2025-04-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.8k

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