This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Partial...

This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best. For an overview and discussion, see here.

Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Inspired by:

https://twitter.com/hamandcheese/status/1707097197714489550

Will we build an audio system before 2040 that facilitates a nontrivial two-way exchange of information between humans and a dolphin or sperm whale (or any Cetacean). This...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_nuclear-free_zone

Refers to whether such an object actually enters their territory with permission, not just whether it's allowed in theory. Includes fusion reactors.

Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.

It was <a...

This market resolves “Yes” if 50-year GSE-eligible mortgages are approved by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying approval requires that either:

A) The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)...

If the manga gets to chapter 1501, this market will resolve to YES.

If the manga finishes before it reaches chapter 1501, this market will resolve to NO.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the...

In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as The New York Times and Al Jazeera published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme..

This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.

[tweet]If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.

See the full list of markets at...

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 3rd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 3rd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League....

The Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Chungcheongnam Province.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary...

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). For the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 8, 2025, and the ceremony for January 11, 2026.

This market will...

This market is about whether I will give up caffeinated drinks until the end of 2025. It serves as a commitment device to help me avoid falling back into old habits. I developed a sensitivity to caffeine in recent years, which causes anxiety and...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Infrared (https://x.com/InfraredFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and...

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically...