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Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Wikipedia

In a January 2024 interview, Sam Altman talked about...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 51
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-28

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M994
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 2nd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League....

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.5k
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2025?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-02

This question resolves as YES if Sam Altman ceases to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2025.

See also:

[markets]

Last updated: 2025-06-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 23
Volume: M5.3k
Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 1965, the Gros Michel Banana was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of Fusarium Wilt (or Panama Disease). Fusarium, a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 157
Will Joe Burrow win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is named the 2025–26 NFL regular season MVP. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 NFL MVP is not announced by May 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will UK rejoin the European Union before 2050?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-11

In a historic referendum on June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, with 52% of the public supporting the departure in a move known as Brexit.

Following the referendum, the UK formally triggered Article 50 in March...

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M2.3k
SpaceX / Starlink surpass $50 billion revenue by 2030
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-12

Spacex/Starlink combined do $50 billion in revenue in a calendar year before 2030 (2029 last possible year). Must be confirmed by a credible source.

Looks like estimates are $15b for 2024:

https://www.bloomberg..

Last updated: 2025-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M2.0k
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for Krakens’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.2k
Will GTA 6 cost 79$ or more on launch?
89%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

Will the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto 6 cost 79 Dollar or more in the US when the game officially releases?

This is about the cheapest edition of the game which lets you play through the full single player campaign (if there is any)..

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M3.0k
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2027?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-17

This market will resolve to yes if shares of Starlink are available for purchase on Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, or any other major stock exchange, at any time on or before December 31st, 2027.

Jan 13, 10:22pm: #stocks #IPO

Last updated: 2025-04-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M3.3k
Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2025?
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.

The resolution sources are: 

The Yahoo Finance history page for NVIDIA...

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 23
Volume: M1.0k
Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/.

The authoritative...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $583
Will Ohio Revoke Any OSB License Over Event-Contract Activity by March 31?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any online sports betting provider licensed in Ohio has its license officially revoked for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying circumstances...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $116
Will the US stock market increase ≥3x by the end of 2028?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-06

This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 is worth >13,767, and NO otherwise.

Last updated: 2025-04-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.0k
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest blocks per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest blocks per-game average, this market will resolve...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will New Mexico State win the 2025 Conference USA Championship Game?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This is a polymarket to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Conference USA Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.1k
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?
73%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of HumidiFi's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable...

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

Zohran Mamdani has proposed creating city owned grocery stores to combat rising prices (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/nyregion/grocery-stores-city-owned.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:

  1. Zohran...
Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10k
China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-04

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"..

Last updated: 2025-12-04
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $12k

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