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U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.5k
Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Will the neutrino fields find a military use by 2050? In order to count the technology must directly use neutrinos (what I mean is described more carefully below). The technology must clearly be consequential from a military/security standpoint. It...

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M45k
Will 5K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
91%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-03-20

Resolves as YES if at least 5 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.

Different number of robots:

@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86

@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215...

Last updated: 2025-03-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M1.7k
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-26

Will be decided subjectively unless I see a poll on this

Last updated: 2025-05-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 246
Volume: M17k
Will Nvidia be blocked from selling H20 GPUs to China at the end of May?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

Update 2025-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria update:

If Nvidia receives any export licenses to China (even on a case-by-case basis), the market will resolve as No.

If Nvidia does not receive any export licenses to...

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M10k
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between October 2, 2025, 11:00 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of $80,000 or lower. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $86k
Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-02

Background:

Global carbon emissions, primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion, industrial activities, and deforestation, are a major contributor to climate change. International efforts, including those under the Paris Agreement, aim to reduce...

Last updated: 2025-06-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M747
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $864
Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-18

Resolves if a significant portion of english-language social media users in 2030 use a separate pronoun for second person singular and plural.

Last updated: 2025-05-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M613
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-08

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

This question will resolve...

Last updated: 2025-04-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M2.9k
Will Hugo Ekitike be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.4k
Will Levy Rozman have a publicized coaching session with Hans Neimann before 2026?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-14

[tweet]This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2026:

Levy Rozman conducts a publicly announced or advertised chess coaching session with Hans Niemann

The session must be explicitly framed as coaching/training (not just playing casual...

Last updated: 2025-05-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.5k
Will OpenAI's o1 model suggest 5 Manifold trades that will make a net profit overall?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-23

I will give it a big list of markets and explain how the site works. If the trades it suggests end up being profitable, this resolves YES. This resolves NO as soon as enough markets resolve to make it unprofitable. I will ask the model to make trades...

Last updated: 2025-03-23
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 68
Volume: M6.3k
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

According to Wikipedia:

The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.

The Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 790
Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw?
31%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 6, 2025 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $66k
Will Trump Repeal Biden's Last-Minute AI GPU Export Restrictions in His First 100 Days?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-02

AI Summary of the new regulation: In January 2025, the Biden Administration implemented sweeping new AI export controls through an "Interim Final Rule" days before leaving office. The regulation requires global licensing for AI/GPU exports and...

Last updated: 2025-05-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 46
Volume: M64k
Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Artificial intelligence safety is an area of research focused on ensuring that AI systems are developed and deployed responsibly, avoiding unintended consequences and minimizing risks associated with their use. Some individuals, driven by the urgency...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M978
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of December?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of December 2025 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is...

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $38
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-13

This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket..

Last updated: 2025-12-13
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $31k

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