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At close of business on 7 May 2025, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 19 March 2025?
70%
Same
29%
Lower
< 1%
Higher
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 36
Forecasters: 17
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of November?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of November 2025 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.9k
Mineral mining with plants through 2033
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-03-13

There will be a company which uses genetically modified or other types of plants to mine rare things from the earth or ocean with a pattern like 1) plant the plant 2) it grows 3) it collects something desired 4) the company collects it in a way...

Last updated: 2025-03-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M2.3k
Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-29?
57%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-27

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 29, 2025 If 1899 Hoffenheim wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $78k
PEPE STOCK (Permanent)
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-09

Yes = Buy No = Short This is a permanent market and its duration will be lengthened as long as it's allowed. The aim is to sell your stock (see top right after you've made a bet) when you believe your side has over-corrected and buy in/short it again...

Last updated: 2025-06-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 231
Volume: M466k
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year?
73%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve according to the coach who wins the 2025-2026 NFL Coach of the Year award.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $393
O/U 48.5
56%
Under
44%
Over
Last updated: 2025-11-27

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 29 at 7:30 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Alabama and Auburn combine to score 49 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 49, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will the Milwaukee Bucks finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes with the best regular-season record in the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference standings.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the 2025–26 NBA...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $79
Will The MongolZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve according to the winner of the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 tournament.

If this tournament is postponed after December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared, this market will resolve to “Other”..

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.7k
What will be the capacity utilization rate in the US for January 2026?
36%
At least 78.0%, but less than 80.0%
24%
At least 76.0%, but less than 78.0%
23%
At least 74.0%, but less than 76.0%
6%
At least 80.0%, but less than 82.0%
5%
At least 72.0%, but less than 74.0%
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 19
Forecasters: 15
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Quantum computing has the possibility to break encryption as we know it. The widely used encryption methods, including RSA, AES, ECC, SHA-256, and HMAC, face unprecedented challenges.

This question resolves YES if, by 2030, quantum computing...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M1.7k
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

[image]Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Official Resolution Source: The market will resolve based on NOAA's official numbers.

Fallback Option: If NOAA is...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 90
Volume: M23k
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new song in 2025?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between October 9 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23
Will someone mine bitcoin on mars before 2080
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-26

The bitcoin mining doesn’t need to produce a bitcoin.

Last updated: 2025-04-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M940
At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?
94%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Nov 11, 3:28pm: Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory at the end of the war? → At the end of the war, will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territory they didn’t control at the start?

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 56
Volume: M6.6k
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 30?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-11-27
★☆☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.8k
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-27

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 25, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

  • Base Airdrop occurs
  • Metamask Airdrop occurs
  • OpenSea Airdrop occurs
  • Pump.fun Airdrop...
Last updated: 2025-11-27
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.3k
Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-02

Resolves YES if any city in the UK has a self-driving taxi service generally available to the public. This includes via a waitlist, if the waitlist is open to the public.

This service only needs to cover part of the city; Waymo's service area in...

Last updated: 2025-04-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M291
During the 2024 cycle, will a GOP candidate for federal or statewide office smoke weed in a campaign commercial?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-10

Two Democratic primary candidates for US Senate in Indiana in the last cycle did so in the debut campaign commercial. Will this become a hot new trend that crosses party lines?

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/7YPqZSdiElI)

Last updated: 2025-03-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M1.4k

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