This market resolves YES if the QQQ ETF trades below $350 at any point during calendar year 2025, and NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on intraday price data from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/)..

I will attempt to check https://poweroutage.us/ at least once per day (or much more often) and this will resolve to Yes if any state has 1,000,000+ customers without power. I will be the sole person checking for resolution so it is possible that an...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Indonesia

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

[link preview]If above market resolves between January 1st and March 31th of 2028, this market resolves YES, otherwise in resolves NO.

@/strutheo/will-the-51st-state-be-washington-d

Context: https://www.interstatebridge.org/

Resolves YES if light rail is running between Portland and Vancouver on a daily basis before end of 2030. Else resolves NO.

May resolve early if it is clear that service is stable.

Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris and/or Douglas Emhoff announce their intention to divorce between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of...

If I ever get a professional IQ test, this market will resolve to that result.

(There's quite a bit of variance in IQ tests, can be as much as 20 points or more sometimes. But I'm not gonna take a bunch of tests and use the average, that's way too...

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper announces that he is running for United States senator from North Carolina in the 2025 midterm election, by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...

Any expression of intent counts, even if it is "obviously a joke", e.g. a Tweet saying "Who knows? Maybe I will run in 2028." counts.

Note: on Jan 29 he joked about it which resulted in the prior market resolving YES.

Must be from today or later.

In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in this 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the...

AI agents like OpenAI's operator and PerplexityAI's Perplexity Assistant can use computers and assist users in computer chores. Will one such AI agent fall victim to a phishing attack or a scam, against the will of the user, in 2025?

Update...

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only...

Resolves yes if Man City are found guilty of any of the 115 charges of breaking financial fair play rules AND receive one or more of the following sporting punishments in the original verdict or worse:

A 20-point deduction in the same season...

Resolution will be based on Nintendo Investor Relations data.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

As of the March 31st, 2023 update to their numbers, the DS sold 154.02 million units, and the Switch has sold 125.62...

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Neptune, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2045. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Neptune must occur within a distance of no more...

I tried with GPT-3 to draw some donuts. I really did. It kept giving me a shirtless man. Or a scary looking spider.

I tried again with GPT-3.5 aka the "ChatGPT". It was very bad at it.

Often it fails to make a hole in the donut, and I like telling...

Jan 5, 2:30pm: Will Elon Musk run for elected office this decade? → Will Elon Musk run for elected government office this decade?

Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 500 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2026

Different number of views:

@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-9d632ac5c2f1

@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-4bbb7ca2194b...