"Entry level" is deliberately fuzzy: in 2022 terms this would look like an AI (or AIs) that is assigned an issue, checks out code, makes edits, and submits a PR (that is accepted).

Rough criteria: the AI acts with little oversight, performs similar...

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for...

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If...

Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)

See this post for some commentary: Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes the 2025-2026 NBA Regular Season with the best record in the league.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to finish the regular Season with the best...

72.22% (39 out of 54) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 0.00% of the time.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026...

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest assists per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve...

See the NYT reporting for more detail on the new proposal:

[image]This question resolves yes if this bill, or any legislation broadly similar to it, is signed into law by January 1st, 2026.

resolve YES if a starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2044 with the parts and/or people necessary to establish a permanent city or...

VISTA X-62A, a one-of-a-kind training aircraft, was flown by an artificial intelligence agent for more than 17 hours recently, representing the first time AI engaged on a tactical aircraft.

For the purposes of this market, "fleet" refers to the...

This market will resolve according to the coach who wins the 2025-2026 NFL Coach of the Year award.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2026,...

According to GiveWell's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a single study, which showed large economic effects which were present a...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 2, 2026 If AC Milan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2025, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine formally applied to join the European Union on Monday, February 28, 2022.

"We ask the European Union for Ukraine’s immediate...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take...