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Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-12

Background: The 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution has historically been interpreted to grant citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of their parents' citizenship status (with exceptions for children of foreign diplomats)....

Last updated: 2025-03-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M5.8k
Will the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
76%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

US national debt hits record $34 trillion | CNN Business

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M1.5k
Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

A leaked audio has surfaced where AWS's CEO Matt Garman claims that "most developers might not be coding" in the next 24 months: https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-ceo-developers-stop-coding-ai-takes-over-2024-8

This market seeks to track his...

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 37
Volume: M4.6k
Will Bitcoin reach €110k by June 30th?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Resolves YES if and only if the high price on any one-minute candle in Binance’s BTC-EUR market equals or exceeds €110,000.00 EUR after market creation and on or before June 30th, 11:59pm ET.

https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_EUR?ref=37754157

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M8.2k
Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 235
Yudkowsky meets the Pope by 2030?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-22

The new pope, Pope Leo XIV, is very interested in artificial intelligence and advancement of AI played a factor in his papal name selection.

This resolves yes if the Pope and Yudkowsky interact, exchanging words in person, over a video call, or in...

Last updated: 2025-05-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M871
Will Khalil Mack lead the NFL in sacks this season?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-10-17

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most sacks in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season.

If two or more players are tied for the most sacks, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first...

Last updated: 2025-10-17
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-17

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social...

Last updated: 2025-10-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.3k
Will Mathieu van der Poel win 10 or more Monuments during his career?
72%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

The Monuments are five classic cycling races considered the oldest, hardest, longest and most prestigious one-day events: Milan–San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Paris–Roubaix, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, and Giro di Lombardia.

MvdP has already won 5. Resolves...

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.1k
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-17

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-10-17
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.8k
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2030?
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-16

Resolves as YES if Kim Jong Un is the leader of North Korea on December 31st 2030.

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-2c7e5cf84f34...

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M246
Will there be a 'DOGE Dividend' by the end of 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

A direct payment sent to every (some minor exceptions are fine) taxpayer funded exclusively with a portion of the savings delivered by DOGE.

Resolves yes if it's either paid or funding is clearly allocated and payments scheduled by the close date....

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M2.1k
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 World Cup?
53%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-14

This market will resolve positively if Lionel Messi plays in at least one match of the 2026 World Cup. This market will not resolve positively if Lionel Messi is merely selected as part of Argentina's squad or stays as a substitute for the entirety...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 45
Volume: M2.9k
Will Gavin Newsom ever become the President of the USA?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-11

This will resolve to YES when Gavin Newsom becomes President of the USA. This will resolve to NO when it is no longer technically possible

Last updated: 2025-04-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M3.5k
Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2029?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

Three of the most anticipated and ambitious technological developments of the 21st century are artificial general intelligence (AGI), net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computing. This question asks whether these three technologies...

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.6k
Puerto Rico Statehood by 2028?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

Resolves YES if Puerto Rico is added to the union by 2028.

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M670
In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?
70%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-28

Movie = Any interactive experience that can be considered a continuation or successor to 20th and early 21st century movies High-quality AI = at least as capable as ChatGPT 4 or DALL·E 3

Prompt = Any command, verbal, written or neural

Suppose there...

Last updated: 2025-03-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M284
Will Fiorentina win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-17

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

Last updated: 2025-10-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $25k
Daily Coinflip
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-10

! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !

Yes = heads

No = tails

(Day 338)

Current totals: 173 heads vs 164 tails

Longest streak: 10 (heads) (days 12-22)

Yesterday’s flip: NO

@FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome

1 = heads

2...

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 30
Volume: M7.1k
Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-10-17

The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the mayor of New York City.

This market will resolve according to the vote share won by the listed candidate.

If the reported value falls exactly between two...

Last updated: 2025-10-17
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.8k
Will the Duolingo owl 'die' again before the end of 2028?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

He has canonically died once, being killed by a cyber truck for marketing purposes. Will they do it again?

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M210

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