81%
Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.
13%
Stonehenge was built as a burial site.
6%
Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.
< 1%
Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
80%
Likely

On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 87
70%
Between $6.9 trillion and $7.3 trillion, inclusive
30%
More than $6.5 trillion but less than $6.9 trillion
< 1%
Less than $6.1 trillion
< 1%
Between $6.1 trillion and $6.5 trillion, inclusive
< 1%
More than $7.3 trillion but less than $7.7 trillion
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 263
Forecasters: 32
5%
Very unlikely

Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the method of carbon removal in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the subsequent war has had significant impacts on the Ukrainian economy. According to a recent estimate by the Ukrainian Economy Ministry, GDP dropped by 30.4% in 2022, with an inflation rate...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 184
34%
None of these will occur before 28 April 2025
24%
Adams will publicly either resign as mayor or publicly announce that he will resign as mayor
22%
Adams will publicly announce that he will not seek reelection as mayor in 2025
20%
Adams will be either suspended or removed as mayor by the governor of New York
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 78
Forecasters: 24
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 168
90%
Coalition
10%
Labor
< 1%
Any Other Party
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £30k
70%
The Democratic Party candidate
30%
The Republican Party candidate
< 1%
Someone else
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 62
Forecasters: 23
4%
Very unlikely

On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.

A statement from the White House writes:

Today, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 238
40%
About Even

Various political and economic factors have observers speculating over the future of US dollar dominance in global finance (MSN [The Telegraph}, Yahoo [Business Insider]). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 94
Forecasters: 25
8%
Very unlikely

World War I was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.

World War...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots, dating back to when the British...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60
25%
Unlikely

On July 30, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight retweeted Ben Wakana of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a tweet by the New York Times that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 481
21%
Unlikely

<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>

According to Value.today, software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 166
73%
Likely

Total Fertility Rate is a statistical calculation that in concept corresponds roughly to the average number of children had per woman per lifetime. In the absence of migration, a population in steady equilibrium would have a TFR of just over 2,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 186
22%
Unlikely

In May 2024, Reuters reported that the US Justice Department was investigating Tesla for securities and wire fraud (US News & World Report). Whether criminal charges are brought by the Justice Department or other federal agency is immaterial. Any...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 67
Forecasters: 31
66%
Likely

In October 2022, the US instituted new, wide-ranging export controls aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £73k
5%
Very unlikely

The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.

The website for the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 103

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