Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican...

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Measure Complete Neuronal Input-Output Functions.

From the Federation of American Scientists:

Measuring how neurons integrate...

This market resolves to “yes” if Scotland either votes to leave in a referendum or actually does leave the UK through some other means before January 1st 2040.

It resolves “No” if Scotland does not leave or vote to leave.

It resolves “n/a” if...

Any use of the power of the president under Article II, Section 2 of the US Constitution to grant any form of clemency, whether pardons, partial pardons, commutations, remissions, respites, reprieves, amnesties etc., to Edward Snowden before the end...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market...

Fort Knox, located in Kentucky, is a highly secure U.S. Army post that houses a large portion of U.S. gold reserves. The last comprehensive audit of Fort Knox's gold reserves occurred between 1974 and 1986. Recently, Senator Rand Paul has suggested...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight ends in a draw. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no winner is announced or the fight is cancelled or delayed beyond January 31, 2026, this market will resolve...

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for BNB (BNB/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 16:10 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in...

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM UTC on April 30, 2025, there is a widely accepted and verifiable report confirming that Pope Francis has been resurrected from the dead. If no such report exists by that time,...

If there is a GPT-5 developed which is a similar amount better than GPT-4, as GPT-4 was to GPT-3, then will GPT-5 be capable of recursive self-improvement with a minimal amount of prompt engineering / scaffolding?

Note: recursive self-improvement,...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for...

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this...

In the upcoming Eredivisie game between NAC Breda and Telstar 1963, scheduled for December 20 at 3:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if NAC Breda and Telstar 1963 combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is...

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see:...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Alabama, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or...

The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making $1.6 billion from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is alleged to have come from customers who were eligible...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Nebraska, scheduled to take place on May 12, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or...

Legislation must have passed before Jan 1 2026, but the law does not need to have gone into effect.

Decriminalization does not count -- legislation must allow for commercial sales of psilocybin for non-medical purposes.

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Netanyahu...

Something like this: It's a vending machine with a speaker and a microphone and maybe a camera. It spots passers-by and tries to strike up conversations with them to convince them to purchases a cold drink, or a bag of chips, or whatever.

there have...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that...