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Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will Eric Weinstein be appointed to any cabinet or federal position by Trump's administration by the end of 2025?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-09

[image]

Last updated: 2025-05-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 8
Volume: M1.4k
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

This market will resolve if any of the following are true:

  • If this market reaches its close date

  • If 8G8D07CxdVzqkPLBcY3L closes (Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026?).

It will resolve based on the following decision...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.7k
Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-22

In May 2025, the Chicago Sun-Times newspaper published an AI-generated "summer reading list for 2025" that recommended several books which don’t actually exist, including "The Last Algorithm" by sci-fi author Andy Weir (author of the books The...

Last updated: 2025-05-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M1.5k
Will Mike Lindell announce run for Minnesota Governor by December 31?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Lindell, founder of My Pillow, announces he will run for Governor of Minnesota by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $77
P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-14

Will this statement be proven to the satisfaction of most mathematicians and computer scientists in 5 years? Apr 7, 12:55pm: Companion market here (For P != NP) https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/p-np-537cbc88aa90

Mar 14, 4:41pm: P = NP → P = NP...

Last updated: 2025-04-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 39
Volume: M11k
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of November 10 above $204?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No..

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $24k
Will the killer of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson be revealed to have been hired by another party?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-24

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

Official law enforcement investigations, court proceedings, or credible confessions reveal that the killer was hired, contracted, or otherwise compensated by another individual or organization to...

Last updated: 2025-04-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M12k
Will Udinese win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $22k
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
65%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this,...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $946
Will Amazon dip to $196 in November?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during November 2025 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $24k
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $601
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-23?
70%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 23, 2025 If Feyenoord Rotterdam wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $26k
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $21k
Will Donald Trump send out a stimulus check to all american citizens during his second term?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolvrs yes if Trump sends out a stimulus check to all Americans by the end of his current term end date

[image]

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 97
Volume: M7.4k
Predators vs. Hurricanes
50%
Predators
50%
Hurricanes
Last updated: 2025-11-14

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for December 6 at 7:00PM ET: If the Predators win, the market will resolve to "Predators". If the Hurricanes win, the market will resolve to "Hurricanes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $17
Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?
64%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-03

"Things will basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years and those worries are overstated ", from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hc9nMipTXy2sm3tJb/vote-on-interesting-disagreements

No strict criteria....

Last updated: 2025-05-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 40
Volume: M1.9k
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Georgia Southern: O/U 59.5
51%
Over
49%
Under
Last updated: 2025-11-14

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for November 15 at 6:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and Georgia Southern combine to score 60 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Resolves yes if there's a company formed after Jan 1 2020 that is worth more than 1 trillion US dollars before 2030. Can be anytime, doesn't have to be worth 1 trillion on jan 1 2030.

Has to be either publicly traded or a company that has raised >10...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M2.6k
Will Josh Allen lead the NFL in passing yards this season?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-14

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most passing yards in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season.

If two or more players are tied for the most passing yards, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $43
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-14

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 16, 2025 If Ukraine wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2025-11-14
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $889

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