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Han Duck-soo in jail by December 31?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between August 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 22-28 be between 17,500,000 and 17,750,000?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between December 22 and December 28, 2025 (inclusive).

The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $488
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14?
39%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

In the upcoming game, scheduled for Wednesday, January 14, 2026 If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $527
Will a proofnik make IMO before the end of 2028?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-04-19

Former students count, can be any IMO team, not just US. Must participate in the IMO before the end of 2028, not just qualify for a team.

Last updated: 2025-04-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M11k
Do fish live in Lake Vostok?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.

Lake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47
North Dakota Presidential Winner
98%
Republican
2%
Democratic
Last updated: 2024-11-01

Which party will win the popular vote in North Dakota at the 2024 US presidential election?

Last updated: 2024-11-01
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-04?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 4, 2026 If SS Lazio wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $85k
SHL: Luleaa vs. Skellefteaa
51%
Luleaa
50%
Skellefteaa
Last updated: 2025-12-26

In the upcoming SHL game, scheduled for 2025-12-26: If Luleaa win, the market will resolve to "Luleaa". If Skellefteaa win, the market will resolve to "Skellefteaa". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.3k
Will a person who is not Joe Biden or Donald Trump become the de facto president of the United States before 2028?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-19

In the event of serious incapacitation of the elected president (illness, or severe mental degradation) the VP, or next in line, becomes indefinite acting head of the state. let’s say for 100+ days

Last updated: 2025-05-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 42
Volume: M2.4k
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.072788, 36.523524 in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.5k
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers..

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.1k
Will Jens Spahn get a ministerial post in the new German government?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-29

This market resolves to "YES" if Jens Spahn will be part of the new German government as head of a ministry. So far it seems almost certains that Spahn wants to become a minister of sorts, the question is if he will be given a position. Spahn is a...

Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.0k
Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of the agreement, including the European Union, the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.

Under the agreement, each country...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 509
Will a U.S. citizen be deported to a foreign country for at least a month?
66%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

Before January 1st, 2027, will any person currently recognized as a US citizen be deported to a foreign country, and not brought back within 30 days?

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M7.4k
Trump and Loomer relationship by Dec 31, 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-22

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if credible evidence is publicly presented confirming that Donald Trump Sr and Laura Loomer are in or had a sexual relationship by December 31, 2025. If no such evidence is provided by this...

Last updated: 2025-03-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M23k
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-01

This question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian state sources (such as the Central Election Commission of Ukraine or the Office of the President of Ukraine) declare that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has won a presidential election held before January 1,...

Last updated: 2025-06-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.6k
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.9k
By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?
40%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-15

For example, someone goes in for a brain scan and isn't told that their brain waves are also going to be used for something else.

Must be a relatively big scandal, noticed by a few thousand people at least. A viral tweet, a major news article, etc.

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 244
Volume: M19k
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $22k
Will Jonathan Greenard win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This is a polymarket on which player will be named the 2025–26 NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

If the listed player is named the 2025-26 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.0k
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-12-26

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the...

Last updated: 2025-12-26
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.4k

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