6%
Very unlikely

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 167
36%
At least 44,000, but fewer than 50,000
28%
At least 50,000, but fewer than 56,000
24%
At least 56,000, but fewer than 62,000
8%
At least 62,000, but fewer than 68,000
2%
At least 68,000, but fewer than 74,000
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 162
Forecasters: 48
88%
Likely

On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a music festival, and over 200 hostages were...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 636
51%
Republican
47%
Democratic
< 1%
Libertarian
< 1%
Green
★★★☆☆
PredictIt
Shares vol.: 7991k
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 542
71%
Likely

The prevalence of remakes (such as Aladdin (2019) and Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 112
8%
Very unlikely

Some effective altruists, including Toby Ord and William MacAskill, have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating existential risk or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
99%
Virtually certain

Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 158
99%
Virtually certain

The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast is set to expire on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 57
8%
Very unlikely

For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see here.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 54
> 99%
Not before 21 December 2024
< 1%
Between 5 October 2024 and 20 December 2024
< 1%
Before 19 July 2024
< 1%
Between 19 July 2024 and 4 October 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 77
Forecasters: 19
80%
Likely

On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, tweeted that "LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025." He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
20%
Unlikely

The Thylacine, or ‘Tasmanian Tiger’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135
65%
Likely

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26
71%
Likely

Question is largely taken from these two questions about the cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD (alternatively ) and labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD. As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 25
4%
Very unlikely

New START is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026.

We ask a pair of questions about the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 66
81%
Likely

Semaglutide (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug approved in June 2021 which has demonstrated 15-18% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125
42%
About Even

The Academic Freedom Index (AFI) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 69
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Recent headlines from Elon Musk and various companies suspending or quitting advertising on the social media platform has observers speculating about the financial future of the firm (BBC, CNN, CNBC). A bankruptcy filing for the corporate successor...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 500
Forecasters: 119
30%
Florida Panthers
24%
Toronto Maple Leafs
20%
Boston Bruins
17%
Tampa Bay Lightning
9%
Another team
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 29
Forecasters: 17
5%
Very unlikely

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Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1341

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