The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) includes Diego Garcia, which hosts a crucial U.S. military base. The UK recently announced (October 2024) an agreement to transfer sovereignty of most of the BIOT to Mauritius, while retaining control of...

As defined by Freedom House rating the US as "not free" at any point between now and 2033. 39% of Americans believe this will happen.

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BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies. I will try to...

This market will resolve Yes if a major publication uses the phrase "Warring Twenties" as a key label of the time period between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2029. I will judge the popularity of this label using Google Trends.

This does not resolve Yes...

Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)

Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability."

This...

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Art Ross Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Art Ross Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source...

The Standard Model of particle physics is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions in a compact way.

One of its features...

Will resolve YES if someone if someone dies while wearing Apple's Vision Pro by the end of 2025.

Questions are very welcome, so please comment if any clarification is needed.

I will not bet on this market.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

GTA 1 released in 1997

GTA 2 released in 1999 (2 years)

GTA 3 released in 2001 (2 years)

GTA 4 released in 2008 (7 years)

GTA 5 released in 2013 (5 years)

GTA 6 is likely to release in 2025 (12 years)

If GTA 7 releases in 2040 then there would...

From this article regarding an interview with Dario Amodei: https://futurism.com/the-byte/anthropic-ceo-ai-replicate-survive

When Klein asked how long it would take to get to these various threat levels, Amodei — who said he's wont to thinking "in...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before May 8, 2026, JD Vance makes a public statement that is negative about Pope Leo XIV. A "negative statement" is defined as any public remark—verbal, written, or posted on social...

The Wikipedia page on Russo-Sino foreign relations notes that:

"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit...

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source...

Currently, there is a big taboo on making drugs that should be used by someone that is considered healthy and usually, regulators like the FDA don't authorize studies on this matter. Nonetheless, it's possible that certain substances could be...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If...