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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 7?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.7k
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Manager in 2025?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arne Slot ceases to be manager of Liverpool F.C. for any length of time between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Arne Slot's...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.0k
Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Diego Pavia is awarded the Heisman Trophy for the 2025-26 NCAA Football season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Heisman...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.8k
Will Bronny James retire alongside his father LeBron James when that time comes?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-30

[tweet]

Last updated: 2025-04-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M5.0k
Will Matthew McConaughey (The Lost Bus) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). For the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 8, 2025, and the ceremony for January 11, 2026.

This market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $172
Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
72%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-03-20

Resolves as YES if at least 200 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.

Different number of robots:

@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86

@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215...

Last updated: 2025-03-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M733
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?
93%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10k
Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Rennes finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes."...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) become vice president of the United States before she turns 70?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

@/strutheo/will-alexandria-ocasiocortez-aoc-be

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M809
Will Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2024, 2028, or 2032 presidential elections?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-27

Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez is listed as the Democratic Party candidate on 2024, 2028 or 2032 presidential election ballots in the majority of states.

Last updated: 2025-05-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M2.5k
Will Keir Starmer say "Russia" or Russian" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-07

Keir Starmer is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament..

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $247
Will Beau Greaves win the PDC World Darts Championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

The Paddy Power World Darts Championship is scheduled to take place at London's Alexandra Palace from December 11 until January 3.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.

If a listed player is...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
O/U 1.5 Rounds
77%
Over
24%
Under
Last updated: 2025-12-07

Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2, scheduled for December 6, 2025, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.5k
Anduril IPO in 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $11k
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 12?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.9k
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4AM ET
51%
Up
50%
Down
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".

The resolution...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.4k
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
68%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 550
Will Mr. Beast self-identify as an effective altruist by end of 2030?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-26

Resolves positively if, at any point between market creation and close, Mr. Beast (the YouTube personality) self-identifies with the effective altruism movement.

Last updated: 2025-05-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 62
Volume: M2.4k
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, current leader of the Yemeni Houthis, is removed from power for any length of time between Sepember 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"..

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.3k
Will Lando Norris finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-07

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 3rd in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this...

Last updated: 2025-12-07
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.7k

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