This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html

Arguing for YES is Bryan's uncanny track record -- he's never lost a public bet ever!

Arguing for NO is that global temperatures have gone up a lot in the 8 years since the bet was...

The Trump administration has recently initiated deportations of non-citizens, particularly alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, to El Salvador under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. This law allows for deportation of non-citizens...

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge...

This is a polymarket to predict whether the listed NFL team will win more than their projected number of games in the 2025–26 regular season.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their projected number of regular...

Background: The ISS is currently scheduled to operate through 2024. The US has extended its participation through 2030: https://www.space.com/congress-approves-iss-extension-2030-chips-act. However, Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilbert%27s_problems

It must be a problem that was previous unsolved.

Human mathematicians can be involved, but at least one important insight must have come from the AI.

There must be a broad consensus that it's...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to...

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will...

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified...

Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of the agreement, including China, the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.

Under the agreement, each country sets its own...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market...

Both YOUTUBE and PATREON released videos will count for this one

See deleted tweet below

[image]

Black box or other equivalent conclusive evidence.

Recent update on the investigation and conclusions: https://admiralcloudberg.medium.com/call-of-the-void-seven-years-on-what-do-we-know-about-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-77fa5244bf99

This market will resolve to "Miami Heretics" if Miami Heretics win Game 1 against Cloud9 New York in this match in the Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Qualifiers Qualifiers, scheduled for December 14 at 4:30PM ET.

This market will resolve to...

This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are...

https://arcprize.org/competition

=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set. (If Chollet et al. change the requirements for the grand prize in 2025, this question will not change. The bar will remain >=85%...

This market will resolve according to how much "Avatar: Fire and Ash" box office will gross domestically by January 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www..

Resolves to YES if the May 2028 edition of the US BLS statistics indicates the sum of employement in the following categories has declined by at least 5% from the May 2023 numbers:

Web and Digital Interface Designers

Graphic Designers

Interior...