Metaforecast

Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?

11%

Unlikely

Not counting the ones who were Presidents before the current Republican-or-Democratic streak.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M285

Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?

24%

Unlikely

The first crewed test seemed to have a lot of problems. Will they do another uncrewed flight after this or will they continue with sending crew?

If the program is officially canceled without reflight then this resolves No.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 23

Volume: M6.9k

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

68%

Likely

Manifest 2025 will be hosting a Startup Pitch Competition with live trading, organized by Sovereign. You can submit an application for a slot here with yoir pitch deck.

[image]Pitches will take place on Saturday 7th at 3:30 pm in front of the...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 48

Volume: M30k

Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

19%

Unlikely

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Sean "Diddy" Combs as part of his ongoing federal trial (United States of America v. Sean Combs, Case No. 1:24-cr-00542) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $2.0k

Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029

86%

Likely

i.e. the "narrator" of the book is listed as a famous human who didn't actual produce the reading, such as James Kirk, Patrick Stewart, Vin Scully, Morgan Freeman, Orson Welles,

OR it's marketed as being read by someone "in character" for example...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 34

Volume: M1.3k

Rem Stock

54%

About Even

RemTheBathBoi

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 200

Volume: M27k

[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?

92%

Very likely

Keltham is currently a God.

Resolves Yes if Keltham exists in Pharasma's Creation at the end of the story, including any epilogues.

Resolves No if Keltham moves on from Creation, or otherwise commits true-suicide.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M2.5k

Will Oracle lose the JavaScript trademark by the end of 2026?

60%

Likely

Oracle currently owns the JavaScript trademark. Over the years various parties have requested that they give up the trademark, most recently in the form of an open letter (https://javascript.tm) signed by prominent members of the JavaScript community...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 14

Volume: M3.7k

Can I pronounce the prime Minister of Canada's name after the election?

84%

Likely

Peter Poilliverolioloo

I don't speak French.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 17

Volume: M1.4k

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

26%

Unlikely

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale....

★★★☆☆

Metaculus

Forecasts: 493

How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2025?

45%

At least 150,000, but fewer than 250,000

25%

At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000

15%

At least 400,000, but fewer than 600,000

12%

At least 100,000, but fewer than 150,000

2%

At least 50,000, but fewer than 100,000

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 29

Forecasters: 26

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

32%

Unlikely

Biden has claimed that, in his view, the Equal Rights Amendment has already been ratified as the 28th Amendment:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/17/politics/joe-biden-equal-right-amendment

But the Archivist previously rejected this argument:...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M2.5k

Padres vs. Giants

54%

Giants

47%

Padres

In the upcoming MLB game, scheduled for June 5 at 3:45PM ET: If the San Diego Padres win, the market will resolve to “Padres”. If the San Francisco Giants win, the market will resolve to “Giants”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $8.2k

Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve according to the club that wins the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA Club World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $18k

Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?

3%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolves NO if the CFTC does not take action before the end of 2025.

Update: Changed the market description from spice to sweepstakes.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 10

Volume: M2.2k

What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar on 30 May 2025?

29%

At least 1.4200, but less than 1.4600

24%

At least 1.3800, but less than 1.4200

21%

At least 1.4600, but less than 1.5000

9%

At least 1.3000, but less than 1.3400

7%

At least 1.5000, but less than 1.5400

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 32

Forecasters: 15

Will the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East?

70%

Likely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Buffalo Bills team to win the AFC East based on the rules...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $88k

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2 PM ET

50%

Up

50%

Down

This market will resolve to “Up” if the change for BTC/USDT, measured in percentage, is greater than or equal to 0 for the June 5 2025 1 hour candle that begins at 2PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Down”.

The resolution source for this...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $20k

Will the 3x3 Rubik’s cube single world record be <3 seconds in 2025?

43%

About Even

Resolves YES if the World Cube Association lists the fastest single in the 3x3x3 Rubik’s cube as 2.99 seconds or below before December 31st, 11:59pm ET.

The current world record is 3.08 by Yiheng Wang, set earlier in 2025. Must be listed on the WCA...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 18

Volume: M728

Next major Zelda game revealed before Nintendo Switch 2 release

3%

Exceptionally unlikely

Market resolves to YES if Nintendo officially announces a new major The Legend of Zelda game before they release the Nintendo Switch 2 console. If no new major Zelda game is announced before Switch 2's release, resolves NO.

Spinoffs, brand remixes,...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 15

Volume: M793

Will Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?

13%

Unlikely

Resolves YES if at any point before October 31, 2032 11:59 PM EST Elon Musk is physically incarcerated in any prison or jail in or out of the United States for a period greater than 24 hours

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M3.5k