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Will the US drone strike a suspected cartel operation in Mexico before 2029?
47%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-29

The Trump administration has indicated that it could attack Mexican cartels, including the use of drone strikes. Will this happen?

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029:

The United States military or intelligence agencies (CIA, etc..

Last updated: 2025-04-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.4k
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $29k
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".

The...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $981
Does Aubrey 'Drake' Graham have a daughter born in or before 2013?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-16

Kendrick Lamar has asserted that Drake is hiding the existence of an abandoned daughter.

This market resolves 'YES' if Kendrick's claim of Drake having a daughter is substantiated and/or if Drake verifies it as true.

See also:

(https://www.youtube..

Last updated: 2025-04-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M3.3k
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
45%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $149
Will the United States elect a woman president by 2030?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

This question will resolve positively if, at any point before January 1, 2030, a woman is elected and subsequently inaugurated as the President of the United States of America, or a vice president becomes president.

For the purposes of this...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 52
Volume: M2.9k
Did OpenAI make a breakthrough in Q* learning dramatically shortening AGI timelines?
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-24

Will resolve true if evidence shows that before Sam Altman was fired, OpenAI made a breakthrough in combining Q* learning with LLMs that led to discontinuous capabilities advance.

Last updated: 2025-03-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M274
Will Kristen Foxen win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $32k
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 18 12:00 PM ET to November 25, 2025 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count..

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $25k
Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.4k
Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-28

Donald Trump has started talking about artificial intelligence, recently saying in an interview with Jake Paul: “You know there are those people that say it takes over the human race. It’s really powerful stuff.”

This question resolves YES if Donald...

Last updated: 2025-03-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M3.6k
Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Canada Fertility Rate 1950-2023 | MacroTrends

Literally even 0.01 increase counts for me.

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M448
Will Trump pardon Diddy?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Sean "Diddy" Combs is currently facing federal investigations into allegations of sex trafficking, prostitution, and racketeering conspiracy. While Donald Trump has previously pardoned hip-hop artists like Lil Wayne and Kodak Black during his...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M4.3k
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed song that...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.8k
Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by the English Premier League following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $928
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington..

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5
> 99%
Under
< 1%
Over
Last updated: 2025-11-22

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 21 at 7:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Pacers and Cavaliers combine to score 242 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 242, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.9k
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-11-27?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 27, 2025 If GNK Dinamo Zagreb wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $758
Bournemouth vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5
55%
Over
46%
Under
Last updated: 2025-11-22

In the upcoming Premier League game between Bournemouth and West Ham, scheduled for November 22 at 10:00 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Bournemouth and West Ham combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $96k
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on November 22?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $58k
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-22

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules...

Last updated: 2025-11-22
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $213k

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