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Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-15

Not counting the ones who were Presidents before the current Republican-or-Democratic streak.

Last updated: 2025-04-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M285
Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?
24%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-02

The first crewed test seemed to have a lot of problems. Will they do another uncrewed flight after this or will they continue with sending crew?

If the program is officially canceled without reflight then this resolves No.

Last updated: 2025-04-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 23
Volume: M6.9k
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
68%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Manifest 2025 will be hosting a Startup Pitch Competition with live trading, organized by Sovereign.  You can submit an application for a slot here with yoir pitch deck.

[image]Pitches will take place on Saturday 7th at 3:30 pm in front of the...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M30k
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
19%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Sean "Diddy" Combs as part of his ongoing federal trial (United States of America v. Sean Combs, Case No. 1:24-cr-00542) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.0k
Audible sells books narrated by AI voice replacements of celebrities or characters before 2029
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-06

i.e. the "narrator" of the book is listed as a famous human who didn't actual produce the reading, such as James Kirk, Patrick Stewart, Vin Scully, Morgan Freeman, Orson Welles,

OR it's marketed as being read by someone "in character" for example...

Last updated: 2025-04-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 34
Volume: M1.3k
Rem Stock
54%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-24

RemTheBathBoi

Last updated: 2025-04-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 200
Volume: M27k
[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?
92%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-03-16

Keltham is currently a God.

Resolves Yes if Keltham exists in Pharasma's Creation at the end of the story, including any epilogues.

Resolves No if Keltham moves on from Creation, or otherwise commits true-suicide.

Last updated: 2025-03-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M2.5k
Will Oracle lose the JavaScript trademark by the end of 2026?
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

Oracle currently owns the JavaScript trademark. Over the years various parties have requested that they give up the trademark, most recently in the form of an open letter (https://javascript.tm) signed by prominent members of the JavaScript community...

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M3.7k
Can I pronounce the prime Minister of Canada's name after the election?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-28

Peter Poilliverolioloo

I don't speak French.

Last updated: 2025-04-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.4k
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale....

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 493
How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2025?
45%
At least 150,000, but fewer than 250,000
25%
At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000
15%
At least 400,000, but fewer than 600,000
12%
At least 100,000, but fewer than 150,000
2%
At least 50,000, but fewer than 100,000
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 29
Forecasters: 26
Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-03

Biden has claimed that, in his view, the Equal Rights Amendment has already been ratified as the 28th Amendment:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/01/17/politics/joe-biden-equal-right-amendment

But the Archivist previously rejected this argument:...

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M2.5k
Padres vs. Giants
54%
Giants
47%
Padres
Last updated: 2025-06-05

In the upcoming MLB game, scheduled for June 5 at 3:45PM ET: If the San Diego Padres win, the market will resolve to “Padres”. If the San Francisco Giants win, the market will resolve to “Giants”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $8.2k
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

This market will resolve according to the club that wins the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA Club World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $18k
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-19

Resolves NO if the CFTC does not take action before the end of 2025.

Update: Changed the market description from spice to sweepstakes.

Last updated: 2025-05-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M2.2k
What will be the spot exchange rate value of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar on 30 May 2025?
29%
At least 1.4200, but less than 1.4600
24%
At least 1.3800, but less than 1.4200
21%
At least 1.4600, but less than 1.5000
9%
At least 1.3000, but less than 1.3400
7%
At least 1.5000, but less than 1.5400
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 32
Forecasters: 15
Will the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East?
70%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Buffalo Bills team to win the AFC East based on the rules...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $88k
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2 PM ET
50%
Up
50%
Down
Last updated: 2025-06-05

This market will resolve to “Up” if the change for BTC/USDT, measured in percentage, is greater than or equal to 0 for the June 5 2025 1 hour candle that begins at 2PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Down”.

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $20k
Will the 3x3 Rubik’s cube single world record be <3 seconds in 2025?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-26

Resolves YES if the World Cube Association lists the fastest single in the 3x3x3 Rubik’s cube as 2.99 seconds or below before December 31st, 11:59pm ET.

The current world record is 3.08 by Yiheng Wang, set earlier in 2025. Must be listed on the WCA...

Last updated: 2025-05-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M728
Next major Zelda game revealed before Nintendo Switch 2 release
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-12

Market resolves to YES if Nintendo officially announces a new major The Legend of Zelda game before they release the Nintendo Switch 2 console. If no new major Zelda game is announced before Switch 2's release, resolves NO.

Spinoffs, brand remixes,...

Last updated: 2025-05-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M793
Will Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

Resolves YES if at any point before October 31, 2032 11:59 PM EST Elon Musk is physically incarcerated in any prison or jail in or out of the United States for a period greater than 24 hours

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M3.5k

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