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What will be the closing value of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on 26 September 2025?
30%
At least 3,000, but less than 3,200
17%
At least 3,400, but less than 3,600
14%
At least 3,200, but less than 3,400
12%
At least 3,600, but less than 3,800
7%
At least 3,800, but less than 4,000
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 17
Forecasters: 12
Suns vs. Trail Blazers
59%
Trail Blazers
42%
Suns
Last updated: 2025-11-15

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 18 at 11:00PM ET: If the Suns win, the market will resolve to "Suns". If the Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-08

Another attempted operationalization of scandal markets. Resolves YES if Substack kicks Scott off the platform, or Scott choses to leave the platform under circumstances that make it seem likely that Substack would have kicked them off if they didn't...

Last updated: 2025-05-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M526
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
40%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Hart Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $215
Will Coinbase US perps offer more than 10x leverage?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any perpetual futures product on Coinbase US offers more than 10x leverage by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.7k
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $9.1k
Will life expectancy in any country pass 90 before 2040?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-20

Currently the highest life expectancy country is Japan, at 84.6 years https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

Last updated: 2025-04-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M620
Eagles Team Total: O/U 22.5
69%
Over
32%
Under
Last updated: 2025-11-15

In the upcoming NFL game between Lions and Eagles, scheduled for November 16 at 8:20 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Eagles score 23 or more points in this game.

If the Eagles score less than 23 points, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $44
Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-31

This market resolves to YES if Air Baltic Corporation A.S. experiences a default event on its 14.5% EUR bonds (ISIN: XS2800678224, also known as "AIR BALTIC C 24/29 REGS") at any point from market creation until the bond's maturity date of August 14,...

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M3.5k
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
74%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Currently, ASML is “the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines that are required to manufacture the most advanced chips” (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding).

Resolution...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 42
Volume: M6.4k
Will additional undersea cable incidents be reported near Taiwan by March 15th, 2025?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-03-21

Resolves YES if any new incidents of damaged or cut undersea communications cables are reported in waters near Taiwan before March 15th, 2024. Incidents must be verified by Taiwan's authorities or telecommunications companies.

Please comment links...

Last updated: 2025-03-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M1.0k
Will Cyprus vs. Austria end in a draw?
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 15, 2025 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $131k
Will July 2025 be the hottest July ever? [NCEI]
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Will July 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?

The market will resolve once the data is released.

The closing and...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 8
Volume: M1.7k
Will XRP dip to $1.80 November 10-16?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.9k
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins more than their listed projected number of regular-season games. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the team becomes mathematically unable to exceed their projected win total before the...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $335
Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook.

The United States is a world leader in science and technology and is leading the world in Nobel Prizes. American...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 162
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West?
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Denver Broncos win the AFC West in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Denver Broncos team to win the AFC West based on the...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will Paris FC win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 French Ligue 1. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl be from New York/New Jersey?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

This is a polymarket to predict which state the team that wins the 2025-26 NFL Super Bowl will be from.

If a team who plays in the listed state wins the Super Bowl, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the Super...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.0k
Will Trump get "Liz Trussed" by the markets in 2025? (if he wins)
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-07

This market resolves Yes if:

Trump releases or begins to implement some sort of economic plan (e.g. tariffs)

The stock or bond markets crash in response

Trump does not implement the announced plans due to the market crash

This market resolves N/A...

Last updated: 2025-04-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 22
Volume: M5.2k
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-11-15

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Last updated: 2025-11-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k

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