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Will a Chinese university be in the Top 10 of the QS World University Rankings for 2026?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

The Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Rankings compare over 1,500 universities around the world (QS Top Universities). In the rankings for 2025, the highest-ranked Chinese institution was Peking University at 14th, up from 17th for 2024...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 101
Forecasters: 55
Will Russell Crowe (Nuremberg) be nominated for Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). For the 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 8, 2025, and the ceremony for January 11, 2026.

This market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $206
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
44%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-02

If listed person/thing is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed person is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $65k
In The GEO Group, Inc. v. Menocal, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision
89%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

89.47% (17 out of 19) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 0.00% of the time.

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★☆☆☆
FantasySCOTUS
Forecasts: 19
Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.5k
India's Chandrayaan-3 moon mission will discover a new source of water on the moon by 2025
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

The successful launch of India's Chandrayaan-3 moon mission has paved the way for the lunar lander and rover to explore the moon's surface. With the mission's focus on searching for water, the rover will discover a new source of water on the moon,...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M1.6k
On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-03-16

On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Feb 24th, 2025), will the Russo-Ukrainian War still be ongoing (determined by Wikipedia status)?

See other war anniversary markets:

[markets]

Last updated: 2025-03-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 47
Volume: M14k
Will Diogo Jota be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will resolve according to the deceased person ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ (navigate: Global →...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k
Will any country forbid the ownership of AI Agents recognized as legal persons by 2030?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

The market is about any country will enact laws that forbid the ownership of AI agents recognized as legal persons, akin to how natural persons cannot be owned.

Resolution Criteria

The prediction will resolve as YES if any UN-recognized country...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M516
Will we get AGI before 2043?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-02

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Last updated: 2025-06-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M4.4k
US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-18

Resolves yes if the executive branch instructs (or endorses) the use of actual bullets to deal with protests or unrest that are politically motivated, and it occurs.

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/02/mark-esper-book-trump-protesters

This is an...

Last updated: 2025-06-18
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 80
Volume: M12k
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.8k
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Will one or both Tate brothers visit Mar-a-Lago within 1 week [March 6]? - photo/video
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-07

It has been reported that the Tate brothers are en route to Florida from Romania after their travel restrictions were lifted.

About a week ago, reports said that someone within the Trump administration was pushing Romania for their release.

This...

Last updated: 2025-03-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M11k
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $2,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $126k
Will GPT-5 be released before Mar 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-21

Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before March 1st 2025

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35

@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57...

Last updated: 2025-03-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 44
Volume: M6.9k
Will Joe Thuney win the NFL Protector of the Year?
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will resolve according to the offensive lineman who wins the NFL Protector of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 season.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $99
Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-09

A responsible scaling policy (RSP) or risk-informed development policy (RDP) is a framework adopted by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI that aims to ensure that they do not release catastrophically unsafe AIs. Such a framework defines levels of...

Last updated: 2025-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M205
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
93%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.7k
Neuralink: The blind see and the lame walk (2030)
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-28

Resolves Yes if Neuralink has allowed a blind person to see again AND a paralyzed person to walk again before 2030.

Doesn’t have to be the same person. Walking can be achieved via mechanical legs. Sight can be simulated.

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 32
Volume: M2.9k
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-02

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday.

This market will resolve according to the...

Last updated: 2025-12-02
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.6k

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