This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's. I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will...
There are rumors afoot (circulating on 𝕏) that it's possible that Elon Musk will pursue a purchase of the television news network 'MSNBC' -- I arbitrarily set the conclude date to 6/5 which is my birthday.
I don't like to have too many questions...
If she files a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission for the office of President of the United States, this market will resolve YES.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the...
Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the NASA Commercial Crew program (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named Starliner to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS.
Unfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program...
Update blog: https://yanderedev.wordpress.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/YandereDev
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Weather Service records a snowfall observed value of at least .5 inches for the listed city on December 25, 2025.
The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park...
Recently there has been a debate about how many GPUs DeepSeek uses in the training of its language models. The DeepSeek-v3 paper claims that only 2048 NVIDIA H800s were used1], but others claim that they might have had as many as 50,000 H100s[2..
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Drew Allar is awarded the Heisman Trophy for the 2025-26 NCAA Football season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Heisman...
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela.
A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as...
The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up...
This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
If...
No novelty items/souvenirs, genuine useful raw material.
Space defined as outside the earth's atmosphere.
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for December 9 at 7:00PM ET: If the Sharks win, the market will resolve to "Sharks". If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has...
This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.
If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the...
Will there be an organized religion that has something to do with Donald Trump in the year 2123?
The news source must be reasonably mainstream. New York Post is reasonably mainstream.
The Guardian and NYT wrote one for 2024 and 2023.
based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/
The market will resolve based on the July 1st 2026 FIDE rating list (published June 30th 2026) as this list reflects Magnus's rating through the end of June 2026.
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to Artificial Intelligence systems. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
I.e....
Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus