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Jets vs. Wild
65%
Wild
36%
Jets
Last updated: 2026-01-11

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for January 15 at 8:00PM ET: If the Jets win, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the Wild win, the market will resolve to "Wild". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $198
Will we get ASI before 2036?
63%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M2.4k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 16?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $21k
Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 173
Forecasters: 53
Will the median home value in New York City be between $560,000 and $570,000 by February 1?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket..

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $609
During President Trumps present term.Do you think he may have a medical episode, making him incapable to finish his term
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear,

Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Early Resolution:

The market will now resolve earlier if Trump is determined to be incapacitated as a result of any...

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M1.7k
Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-11

Actual estimate: 33-50%

This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.1k
US unemployment above 5% in 2025?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 5.0% at any point during the calendar year 2025. The official unemployment rate is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M264
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 12?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $318
Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?
10%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-24

Self-replicating space probes, also known as von Neumann probes, are hypothetical spacecraft designed to autonomously explore and utilize resources from celestial bodies to replicate themselves. The creation of a self-replicating probe could...

Last updated: 2025-05-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M609
Will Manchester City finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in last place in the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes in last place in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League..

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.6k
Stripe IPO before 2027?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5.7k
Sunderland AFC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5
57%
Under
43%
Over
Last updated: 2026-01-11

In the upcoming Premier League game between Sunderland AFC and Crystal Palace FC, scheduled for January 17 at 10:00 AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if Sunderland AFC and Crystal Palace FC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game.

If...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $27k
Will Extropic AI be worth at least $100 million before 2028?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-31

At any time, any valuation

Last updated: 2025-05-31
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M7.5k
Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39
Will any #1 seed lose on the first weekend of March Madness 2025?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-24

Men’s tournament. Either Round 1 of 64 or round 2 of 32.

Last updated: 2025-03-24
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 36
Volume: M4.6k
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-01-19?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2026-01-11

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 19, 2026 If Konyaspor wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok before 4th April, 2025? [Read description]
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-02

According to Trump Microsoft is in talks to acquire TikTok

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/27/tiktok-microsoft-trump-ban-china/2b647124-dd2a-11ef-8889-d5c3924edafd_story.html?isMobile=1

Microsoft is currently in talks to acquire...

Last updated: 2025-04-02
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 17
Volume: M6.2k
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-11

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2026-01-11
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $20k

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