I am 16 years old right now, never felt romantically attracted to anyone. I will not bet.

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage),...

Resolves yes if, at the time Hollow Knight: Silksong releases, we've known about the upcoming release from official channels for less than 2 weeks.

Resolves N/A if silksong is cancelled.

Resolves YES if the city of Shanghai suffers attack by nuclear weaponry in the year 2025, including by a non-national actor.

I'm putting this up as a market because it's something I had a dream about in roughly 2010.

From the ACX/Metaculus prediction contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31255)I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, X, or their subsidiaries accepts...

The SEC seems to be charging every crypto project ever launched with this recently, independent of whether or not they actually defrauded anybody, and leaning toward either crypto projects big enough to make headlines (Ripple) or projects SEC AUSAs...

Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?

Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum...

Will Elon Musk post on Bluesky by the end of 2025, it should be from an account who is widely accepted as being his.

This market resolves to YES if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes President of the United States at any time before January 1, 2100. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Only official, publicly recognized terms as President count (e.g., being sworn in after...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures the listed intersections in Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by August 22, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersections will be considered captured if any part of the intersections is...

This market resolves YES if any major tech company (including but not limited to Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, or other publicly traded tech companies with market caps over $10 billion) officially reports that at least 98% of new code is...

20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count,...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Utah Jazz win the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Western...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where...

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of the Moon before January 1st 2034 (and after 2023)

Questions with the same criteria:

@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d...

The currency we are tracking is USD. We are looking for 100$ MSRP.

The game must be the standard edition of the game, not a fancy version. So if Breath of the Wild 3 releases in December and it is 100 dollars, it is YES, but if it's 80 dollars...

The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the mayor of New York City.

This market will resolve according to the candidate candidate that wins the second most votes in this election.

The primary resolution...

This paper shows that current LLMs that are fine-tuned on f(x) = y will often fail to generalize to f-inverse(y) = x. Gary Marcus seems to think this is a fundamental problem in the current approach to AI.

I tested this myself and can confirm that...

Resolves as YES if the United Kingdom has a larger GDP than France in the year from January 1st 2025 -> December 31st 2025

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by September 30, 2026, Elon Musk publicly endorses any candidate participating in a Democratic primary election during that year. An endorsement is defined as a public statement of support...