Ziddleswix's "Elon Nickname" market, but on a much smaller timeframe. (For this market, the week "ends" at 12:01 AM EDT on the 8th). I'll resolve YES immediately if that market resolves YES.
(https://manifold..
Elon used to vote democrat, post stuff about his support for LGBT people, and was a hero of the climate movement. That is... no longer the case. But maybe it will be once again?
Resolves based on my judgement of the vibes. Simply becoming more...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
A public announcement reported...
Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025.
If the...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/14/middleeast/iran-israel-nuclear-facilities-damage-impact-intl
Israel claims to have caused significant damage to some of Iran's key nuclear sites, but Fordow still appears to be mostly unscathed.
To resolve YES, it must be a public apology, and he must be contrite and use the words "I'm sorry", "I apologize" or one of the phrases listed below in reference to his performance in the Oval Office on February 28th. Some variation in wording is...
I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks at 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99%, resolution will be YES.
For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around...
Non-compute bounded models allowed.
As of making this, ARC-AGI-2 has not been released yet, but https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025 says “late Q1 2025” so we’ll set an end date for July, which is after Q2 ends.
[link preview]
Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of...
Which party will win the popular vote in Wyoming at the 2024 US presidential election?
BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.
AI agents are software programs designed to perform tasks autonomously, ranging from simple automation to complex decision-making. While AI agents can malfunction, be deactivated, or exhibit unexpected behaviors, the concept of "AI suicide" will be...
Related Questions on Metaculus:
In the upcoming UCL game, scheduled for September 16 at 3:00PM ET, If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If not, this market will resolve to “No”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on September 17, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve...
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