Market forecasts are on page 3 of https://www.cahsrprg.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018/08/Model_sensitivities_AppendixB.pdf
Market resolves NO if that rail linkage doesn't exist by 2030.
Screenshot in case the above doc gets...
Related Question on Metaculus:
From a recent Guardian piece,
The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Feb '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...
The Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which "aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much...
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XPL (XPL/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in...
In October 2025, Microsoft is set to drop support for Windows 10, aside from an optional paid subscription to keep getting security updates for the next few years. Windows 11, the replacement they'd like to move people onto, is broadly poorly-reputed..
The ARC AGI Prize is a $1,000,000+ public competition aimed at advancing research in artificial general intelligence (AGI) by developing open-source solutions for the ARC-AGI benchmark, which measures the ability to acquire new skills and solve novel...
In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 28, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the...
This market seeks to predict whether the H5N1 avian influenza virus will be officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) by December 31st 2025.
For this question, the resolution will depend solely on an official WHO...
In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 22, 2026 If Samsunspor wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...
This market refers to the LoL match between Bushido Wildcats and SU Esports in the TCL Playoffs, scheduled for February 20 at 10:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Bushido Wildcats" if Bushido Wildcats win the match against SU Esports.
This...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.802224° N, 35.379423° E in Pokrovka, Sumy Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part...
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if a new, previously undisclosed assassination attempt against Donald Trump is publicly revealed between market creation and resolution date. It resolves NO if no new assassination attempt is disclosed...
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A...
This market will resolve according to the participant (country team or individual participant as applicable to the event) that is awarded the gold medal at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km...
This market will resolve to "Miller" if Juliana Miller is officially declared the winner of the fight against Carli Judice at UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez, scheduled for February 21, 2026.
It will resolve to "Judice" if Carli Judice is...
If there are multiple people in the first mission, any of them getting back to Earth will resolve YES. Must still be alive.
Market open until it happens
See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Nexus's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly...
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