In October 2022, the US instituted new, wide-ranging export controls aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically...

Whistleblower protection in the Defend Trade Secrets Act:

(1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a...

Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally...

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31098) I will resolve based on Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 20, 2025 is...

Resolves YES if and only if the high price on any one-minute candle in Binance’s BTC-USDT market equals or exceeds $120,000.00 USDT after market creation and on or before June 30th, 11:59pm ET.

Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

I’m getting married on September 13, 2025, and I’m considering doing it outdoors — likely in a public park near the Washington & Old Dominion Trail in Northen Virginia. It’s much cheaper, but there are risks:...

Resolves to: Blockchain

Mods may resolve

Timezone is EDT.

Resolves upon the completion of Super Bowl LX (60) or when the team is eliminated from Super Bowl contention, whichever comes first.

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul

@/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul-7e23b7755b1d

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25,...

Resolution Source:

Global temperature data from Copernicus Climate Bulletins

Dataset: ERA5 Single Levels Data

Tie Resolution: A tie (when the temperature matches previous records up to two significant digits) will resolve as NO. Only two...

Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of intelligence and mental illness. Many physical traits, such as height, attractiveness, strength, and...

Payout matrix

Kamala/Dems in 24 & status quo in NK => YES

Trump/Repubs in 24 & Kim out => YES

Kamala in, Kim out => NO

Trump in, Kim in => NO

The election part will be settled early 2035. The NK part can resolve "OUT" early, and resolved "status...

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31620)I will resolve this according to the Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, Israel establishes a formal...

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Democrats gain a net total of 38 or more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections as measured by the Associated Press. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question)....

Since the early 1980s, most central banks have communicated their operation of monetary policy by setting a policy nominal interest rate. For example, the Fed in the US communicates the stance of monetary policy through its target for the federal...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sepp Kuss finishes in the top five at the Tour de France 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Tour de France 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by December 31, 2025,...

Also see the companion question: Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?

In 1980, the government of China implemented the one-child policy in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the...

Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)