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Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?
66%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In October 2022, the US instituted new, wide-ranging export controls aimed at controlling a set of “chokepoint” technologies in the global semiconductor supply chain. China is one of the leading countries in AI, but AI advancements have historically...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 60
Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Whistleblower protection in the Defend Trade Secrets Act:

(1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19
When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?
52%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-03-09

Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively. Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally...

Last updated: 2025-03-09
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 53
Volume: M2.9k
Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31098) I will resolve based on Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 20, 2025 is...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 48
Volume: M165k
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in June?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

Resolves YES if and only if the high price on any one-minute candle in Binance’s BTC-USDT market equals or exceeds $120,000.00 USDT after market creation and on or before June 30th, 11:59pm ET.

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 36
Volume: M26k
(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?
68%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

I’m getting married on September 13, 2025, and I’m considering doing it outdoors — likely in a public park near the Washington & Old Dominion Trail in Northen Virginia. It’s much cheaper, but there are risks:...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.5k
Bitcoin hits 200k by start of 2026?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-05

Resolves to: Blockchain

Mods may resolve

Timezone is EDT.

Last updated: 2025-06-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M43k
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LX?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-29

Resolves upon the completion of Super Bowl LX (60) or when the team is eliminated from Super Bowl contention, whichever comes first.

Last updated: 2025-05-29
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M10k
Will White Castle offer a lab-grown / cultivated cell meat product by the end of 2030?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-10

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul

@/strutheo/will-white-castle-offer-a-labgrown

@/strutheo/will-mcdonalds-offer-a-labgrown-cul-7e23b7755b1d

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M635
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-25

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25,...

Last updated: 2025-07-25
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will April 2025 will be the warmest month of April ever recorded (global) ?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-07

Resolution Source:

Global temperature data from Copernicus Climate Bulletins

Dataset: ERA5 Single Levels Data

Tie Resolution: A tie (when the temperature matches previous records up to two significant digits) will resolve as NO. Only two...

Last updated: 2025-06-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.0k
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of intelligence and mental illness. Many physical traits, such as height, attractiveness, strength, and...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 151
Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029
42%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-03

Payout matrix

Kamala/Dems in 24 & status quo in NK => YES

Trump/Repubs in 24 & Kim out => YES

Kamala in, Kim out => NO

Trump in, Kim in => NO

The election part will be settled early 2035. The NK part can resolve "OUT" early, and resolved "status...

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 6
Volume: M2.0k
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-22

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31620)I will resolve this according to the Metaculus resolution: This question will resolve as Yes if, during calendar year 2025, Israel establishes a formal...

Last updated: 2025-05-22
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M955
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-08

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Democrats gain a net total of 38 or more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections as measured by the Associated Press. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Last updated: 2025-06-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M1.5k
Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
6%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question)....

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 963
Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Since the early 1980s, most central banks have communicated their operation of monetary policy by setting a policy nominal interest rate. For example, the Fed in the US communicates the stance of monetary policy through its target for the federal...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 141
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?
86%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-07-25

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly...

Last updated: 2025-07-25
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will Sepp Kuss finish in the top five at the Tour de France 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-07-25

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sepp Kuss finishes in the top five at the Tour de France 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Tour de France 2025 is permanently canceled or has not been completed by December 31, 2025,...

Last updated: 2025-07-25
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k
Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?
13%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Also see the companion question: Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?


In 1980, the government of China implemented the one-child policy in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

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