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2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
22%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' 5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030.

Also, don't miss Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024" (all gathered under one tag.

I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M2.8k
Will Tesla be the top-selling car manufacturer in 2028?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-03-26

Will Tesla be the car company that sell the most cars by the end of 2028? (We need to wait until financial results from the biggest automakers)

Last updated: 2025-03-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M601
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy..

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M3.9k
Will the next pope be gay?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the individual elected as the next pope is publicly known to be gay or have had publicly disclosed same sex relations. The determination will be based on credible public sources confirming...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M2.9k
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?
40%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-05

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 19, 2025 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $29
Will "A Minecraft Movie" gross >$80 million during its domestic opening weekend?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-04-04

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "A Minecraft Movie" (2025).

I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).

For example, the...

Last updated: 2025-04-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M17k
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?
32%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $468
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.

This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET....

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $23k
Will at least one Major League Baseball pitcher log 300 or more strikeouts in the 2025 regular season?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-19

The last 300 K pitchers that the league has seen were Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, both of whom played for the Houston Astros during the 2019 season.

Spencer Strider came close during the 2023 season, with 281 Ks in only 186.2 innings pitched,...

Last updated: 2025-05-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 8
Volume: M2.2k
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $91k
Will GPT-5 release before GTA 6?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-05-11

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5 before Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6).

"Public release" of GPT-5 refers to an official announcement and availability for general use, including only to a specific...

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.3k
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
49%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-07

[image]Would an AI be able to construct an ultra-weak proof for the given chess board state, that does not rely on brute-force analysis by 2030. The proof can contain multiple conditions but should not outline every move to conclude the solution..

Last updated: 2025-05-07
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.1k
If Trump wins, will there be an attempt on his life by midterms?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

A public and active attempt. Plans which are interrupted before the actual assassination attempt do not count.

The attempt may not be made by a state actor

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M7.0k
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of December?
85%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of December 2025 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $27
Department of Education abolished by July 4, 2026
17%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-01

Market resolves YES if the US Department of Education has been officially abolished by July 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on official government announcements and legislative actions.

References:

https://www.hindustantimes..

Last updated: 2025-05-01
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 31
Volume: M4.6k
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
31%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note:...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $10k
Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 16
Will "Hedge" or "Hedging" be said during the Robinhood stream?
50%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-05

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $171
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50–51 °F on December 5?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Dec 2025.

The resolution source for this market will be information...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $359
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 6?
> 99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-12-05

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-05
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Nicola Sturgeon to be First Minister at next Holyrood election
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-11-01

Will Nicola Sturgeon still be First Minister on the day of the next Scottish Parliamentary election?

Last updated: 2024-11-01
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets

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