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Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Currently, the political status of The Republic of China (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 567
Xavier Musketeers vs. Clemson Tigers
51%
Xavier Musketeers
50%
Clemson Tigers
Last updated: 2025-12-15

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for November 23 at 12:00 AM ET:

If the Xavier Musketeers win, the market will resolve to "Xavier Musketeers".

If the Clemson Tigers win, the market will resolve to "Clemson Tigers".

If the game is postponed,...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $5
Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?
56%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Art Ross Trophy.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Art Ross Trophy, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $213
Will Hunter Henry be the Top Fantasy Tight End for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?
29%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player is the top scoring tight end during the 2025-26 NFL regular season. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will be based on ESPN's FFL Points Per Reception (PPR) scoring, and...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $77
Will Ryan Meikle win the PDC World Darts Championship?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

The Paddy Power World Darts Championship is scheduled to take place at London's Alexandra Palace from December 11 until January 3.

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the PDC World Darts Championship.

If a listed player is...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2065?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-30

Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2065, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator. This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people...

Last updated: 2025-05-30
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 20
Volume: M1.7k
Will Manifold miss me when I'm gone?
90%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-28

Mods: If I die or no longer am active on the website, please make a poll to resolve this.

Last updated: 2025-05-28
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 59
Volume: M3.3k
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-03

Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/

Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not...

Last updated: 2025-06-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 12
Volume: M1.2k
How old will I be when I die?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-11

I'm currently 28 years old. I have no major health issues or family history of health issues, other than one relative's case of diabetes. I drive a few times a week and generally don't participate in dangerous activities.

I love my life and want to...

Last updated: 2025-06-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 27
Volume: M746
Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?
83%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-10

If it's rated at least a six on the democracy index by the Economist Intelligence Unit, resolves YES.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-index-eiu?time=latest

If the Economist Intelligence Unit ceases to function I will choose another...

Last updated: 2025-06-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M3.2k
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve according to the next individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.7k
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo stay with Milwaukee Bucks for the 2025-26 season?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

After the Bucks’ disappointing playoff exit, there has been widespread speculation that the Bucks’ star will attempt to leave this offseason.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays in a game for the Milwaukee Bucks in the...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M2.3k
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on December 16?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $14k
Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 154
Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?
47%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-04-26

This question will resolves as Yes if the Disturbance Storm Time index reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.

Last updated: 2025-04-26
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M802
Will U win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate.

If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.8k
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

The US AI Safety Institute (AISI) was announced in Nov 2023 to pursue President Biden’s executive order on AI.

AISI is subordinate to National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), which itself is under the Department of Commerce..

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M2.0k
Will Brian Branch lead the NFL in interceptions this season?
23%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most interceptions in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season.

If two or more players are tied for the most interceptions, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $420
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2025-12-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $522k

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