This market seeks to predict the ability to use AI to generate meaningful parts of an impressive game.

We are not concerned with precision down to the level of generating a good Settings menu, but trying to take a qualitative look at how relevant...

This market merely requires that both Russian and American official channels (gov announcements count, including on eg twitter, a press conference, etc.) announce a joint plan to build a bridge or tunnel or similar kind of permanent crossing between...

At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide. Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count. But in general it should involve either Israel...

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

based on https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and...

This market resolves to YES if any amendments to the US Constitution are ratified and adopted by 12/31/2027 and NO otherwise.

Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible...

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

“Released” means the full episode is published and...

From wikipedia "the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include...

One of Paul Erdős' favorite problems was the sunflower) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof.

The sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size (n) are necessary before there are some (3) whose...

Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital. Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have...

The question is whether the ICC will officially issue arrest warrants for Russian officials (including Vladimir Putin) specifically on the grounds of genocide for their intent to destroy in whole or in part Ukrainians as a national group.

Iny...

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

If two models are tied for...

This market will resolve YES if the Giant Panda, also known as Panda Bear, is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_panda

IUCN red list of threatened species

https://www..

This market shall resolve to the first year in which it becomes legal for same-sex couples to marry in all prefectures of Japan.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of December 2025.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards...

If the mainstream media or the mainstream tech media report that the people responsible for Red Team and care about Gemini Ultra fairness were actually trying to sabotage it because of their connections with anti-AI movements of Less Wrong,...

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this...