I don't really know anything about Centers or Boards or Renaming Things, but a friend made this prediction as an offhand comment, and I thought it would be fun as a market.
Criteria
My understanding is renaming the Center would be done by an act of...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is...
In the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for March 11 at 7:00 PM ET:
This market will resolve to "EC Bahia" if EC Bahia win the game by 2 or more goals.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "EC Vitória".
If the game is postponed, this...
[image]@/Bayesian/will-ai-double-the-human-lifespan-w-ZL6AEh82d8
WARNING: If this is ambiguously achieved (new antiaging tech of uncertain capability), the market may remain open for a while, so we can learn whether or not this happened.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the...
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 10 at 10:00 PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if De'Anthony Melton records more than 3.5 total rebounds during the game.
This market will resolve to "No" if De'Anthony Melton records 3.5 rebounds...
IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge". It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be...
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Yangon Galacticos and Ivory in the EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage, initially scheduled for March 4 at 11:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yangon Galacticos" if Yangon Galacticos win...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 6 12:00 PM ET to March 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins is traded to any other team before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The 2026-2027 NFL regular season will have...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between March 10, 12:00 PM ET and March 17, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and...
Will an AI score well enough on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) to earn a gold medal score (top ~50 human performance)? Resolves YES if this result is reported no later than 1 month after IMO 2025 (currently scheduled for July...
Will all or all but one of the numbers here go down from their 2022 numbers?
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Resolves yes if at any time before EOY 2030, there is an official and publicly accessible system on the Manifold website and/or app that:
Allows players to lend mana to each other.
Forces the players that were loaned some mana to pay the amount...
Donald Trump and the United States recently sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters..
Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of this other question.
As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are concerned that LLMs could potentially be used in the...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market...
Any expansion of the court beyond 9 members, whatever the stated justification, counts as court-packing.
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