Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $109,000 at any point between 00:00 AM and 23:59 PM PT on June 4, 2025.

The market will resolve to “No” if Bitcoin does not reach or exceed this price...

Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election to count the votes of the electoral college.

If there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to...

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

This market will resolve according to the athlete ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global → Sports →...

The market will resolve as “Yes” if there is a general consensus among experts that sentience has been created in a non-biological substrate by the end of 2030.

I will interpret "consensus" as roughly 90%+ agreement among experts. "Experts" for...

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/scotland-votes-leave-in-next-union-referendum/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is...

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025.

If the...

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2025, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.

If the...

Jan 1, 2:43am: Will AI produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025? → Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing gay pornography video of Elon Musk having sex with Peter Thiel by 2025?

In the upcoming game, scheduled for November 30, 2025 If Strømsgodset IF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

AI discourse has a lot of repetitive, terrible arguments, from both sides, often from pretty intelligent people. I was thinking of writing up a list of them along with in-depth rebuttals. Not sure if people would use it though, since presumably most...

In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for December 13 at 7:00PM ET: If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the Jets win, the market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to...

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Defensive Player of the Year, this market will resolve to "No".

The...

Actual estimate: ~10%

This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong..

Resolves Yes if Musk unfollows Trump on X/Twitter before July (EST), and No otherwise.

If either of Elon or Trump's account are deleted or disabled, the market will resolve to No immediately.

Inspired by this Polymarket: https://polymarket..

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Inspired by

(https://manifold.markets/embed/DanMan314/if-the-netherlands-has-a-referendum)

This resolves YES if Vivek Ramaswamy is sworn in to any position of the US Cabinet (including as Vice President) before 2026, No otherwise.