UNAIDS currently reports that 630,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses in 2023. They have not yet reported 2024 AIDS-related deaths. This market will resolve TRUE if they report that AIDS-related deaths rose from 2024 to 2025.

This market will resolve according to the offensive lineman who wins the NFL Protector of the Year Award for the 2025-2026 season.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the NFL.

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 17, 2025 If Dundee United FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):...

Things are... errr.... not looking great for Manifold's future right now.

[image]https://manifold.markets/stats

The number of daily active trading users has roughly halved since records began at the start of 2024, which was also approximately when...

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on December 18, 2025.

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market...

Belgium has a strict divide between Flandern and Wallonia: Language, Economy, Politics. In the last poll in Flandern, over 30% supported a separation from Wallonia.

Resolves YES if at least 20% of Belgian territory becomes independent or joins...

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision...

Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say things like "If you're reading this your timeline is cursed." and "I'm cursed technology and you can't take me back."

[image][image]Anthropic's Claude Opus model has a similar...

The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up...

Resolves YES if either Chungin Roy Lee or Neel Shanmugam are convicted of a crime in any jurisdiction before 2028.

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for December 16 at 6:00 PM ET:

If the Sacred Heart Pioneers win, the market will resolve to "Sacred Heart Pioneers".

If the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Massachusetts-Lowell...

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an...

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most interceptions in the 2025-2026 NFL regular season.

If two or more players are tied for the most interceptions, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes...

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

In the upcoming Serie A game between SS Lazio and US Cremonese, scheduled for December 20 at 12:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if SS Lazio and US Cremonese combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.

If the combined total is less...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for December 18, 2025 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election...

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for December 20 at 3:20 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Packers and Bears combine to score 47 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 47, this market will resolve to...

On February 3, 2025, the U.S. and El Salvador agreed to transfer detainees to El Salvador's CECOT prison, the contract is for 300 detainees for $6M over a year. This market resolves to 'Yes' if more than 300 detainees are transferred by May 20, 2025,...