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Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes?
49%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.
29%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.
15%
Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.
5%
Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.
2%
Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.
Last updated: 2025-09-15
Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
Trump gives Elon a nickname by EOD Saturday?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-08

Ziddleswix's "Elon Nickname" market, but on a much smaller timeframe. (For this market, the week "ends" at 12:01 AM EDT on the 8th). I'll resolve YES immediately if that market resolves YES.

(https://manifold..

Last updated: 2025-06-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 26
Volume: M1.2k
Will Elon flip parties again before 2033?
31%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-06

Elon used to vote democrat, post stuff about his support for LGBT people, and was a hero of the climate movement. That is... no longer the case. But maybe it will be once again?

Resolves based on my judgement of the vibes. Simply becoming more...

Last updated: 2025-06-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M2.4k
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $408k
A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

Increased from his 5% unconditional probability

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★☆☆☆
X-risk estimates
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $296k
Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-17

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).

The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.

A public announcement reported...

Last updated: 2025-06-17
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M2.8k
Will Ed Sheeran be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025.

If the...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $57k
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $151k
Will Israel claim significant damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant by the end of 2025?
79%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/06/14/middleeast/iran-israel-nuclear-facilities-damage-impact-intl

Israel claims to have caused significant damage to some of Iran's key nuclear sites, but Fordow still appears to be mostly unscathed.

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 19
Volume: M1.9k
Will President Zelenskyy publicly apologize to President Trump by the end of May 2025? (forked market)
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-04

To resolve YES, it must be a public apology, and he must be contrite and use the words "I'm sorry", "I apologize" or one of the phrases listed below in reference to his performance in the Oval Office on February 28th. Some variation in wording is...

Last updated: 2025-06-04
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 18
Volume: M1.4k
Will Donald Trump become the first dictator of the United States before 2030?
18%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-16

I will let the market decide about resolution. If it trades for more than for 4 weeks at 1%, resolution will be NO. If it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99%, resolution will be YES.

Last updated: 2025-06-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 73
Volume: M32k
Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop
76%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-16

For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around...

Last updated: 2025-05-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M2.5k
Will any model score 70+% on ARC AGI 2 within 3 months of its release?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Non-compute bounded models allowed.

As of making this, ARC-AGI-2 has not been released yet, but https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025 says “late Q1 2025” so we’ll set an end date for July, which is after Q2 ends.

[link preview]

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M16k
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
96%
Very likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1112
Wyoming Presidential Winner
> 99%
Republican
< 1%
Democratic
Last updated: 2024-11-01

Which party will win the popular vote in Wyoming at the 2024 US presidential election?

Last updated: 2024-11-01
★★☆☆☆
Smarkets
Luffy Stock
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-19

BUY: good SHORT: bad Market trades based on sentiment & never resolves.

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 640
Volume: M449k
Will we see the first AI Agent suicide in Q1 of 2025?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-10

AI agents are software programs designed to perform tasks autonomously, ranging from simple automation to complex decision-making. While AI agents can malfunction, be deactivated, or exhibit unexpected behaviors, the concept of "AI suicide" will be...

Last updated: 2025-04-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M902
Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?
61%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
  • Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050...
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 130
Will Juventus vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

In the upcoming UCL game, scheduled for September 16 at 3:00PM ET, If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If not, this market will resolve to “No”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $174k
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during September press conference?
21%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-09-15

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on September 17, 2025, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve...

Last updated: 2025-09-15
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $889

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