Metaforecast

Will Sergio Moro have his mandate revoked in his first term as senator in Brazil?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolves as YES as well if he renounces against his will

Resolves as NO if he renounces for e.g. running for another bigger position, for health reasons or if he dies

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 11

Volume: M1.8k

Will Solana dip to $30 in March?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $46k

What will be the European Central Bank's (ECB's) most recently announced "Deposit facility" interest rate as of 7 March 2025?

85%

At least 2.50%, but less than 3.00%

11%

At least 2.00%, but less than 2.50%

4%

At least 3.00%, but less than 3.50%

< 1%

Less than 2.00%

< 1%

At least 3.50%, but less than 4.00%

★★★☆☆

GJOpen

Forecasts: 131

Forecasters: 23

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

49%

About Even

This is comparing accuracy of the AI model vs Manifold users on a 'benchmark' selection of objective markets'.

Inspired by the Autocast competition: https://forecasting.mlsafety.org/

Close date updated to 2026-01-01 12:59 am

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 68

Volume: M4.7k

Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?

96%

Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.

3%

The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.

< 1%

The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.

★★★★☆

Rootclaim

Forecasts: 1

MOPDash runs for 10+ meal times?

99%

Virtually certain

Resolves YES if MOPDash delivers for at least 10 different meal times (breakfast, brunch, lunch, or dinner for each day) during MOP 2025, and NO otherwise.

In particular, if MOPDash is stopped by MOP staff or shuts down for any reason (even...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 24

Volume: M6.4k

Will NRG win Masters Santiago 2026?

22%

Unlikely

This market will resolve according to the winner of the VALORANT Masters Santiago 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for February 28th - March 15th, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $1.2k

Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)

20%

Unlikely

Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support

★★☆☆☆

GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy

Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)

93%

Very likely

Context:

[image]Resolves Yes if any counterexample to Yann's claim here occurs before 2030, in my judgement. Resolves No otherwise.

I will not trade in this market.

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 23

Volume: M1.3k

Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE?

35%

Unlikely

Resolves no later than the end of this year on news reports from at least one of:

• ABC

• CBS

• NBC

• PBS

• NPR

• CNN

• Fox

• MSNBC

• Associated Press

• New York Times

• Washington Examiner

• Wall Street Journal

• New York Post

• USA...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 47

Volume: M3.4k

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on March 8?

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $1.5k

Will Trump say "Ice Cream" this week? (March 8)

2%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count...

★★☆☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $1.5k

Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day?

< 1%

Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $5.2k

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2025?

1%

Exceptionally unlikely

Resolves YES if an Amendment to the Constitution is recognized by the Archivist of the United States, which removes all criminal immunity for former Presidents before the end of 2025.

Joe Biden released an OpEd today in WaPo in favor of such an...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 20

Volume: M8.9k

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

57%

About Even

Is your IQ low enough to take out a predatory loan that could financially ruin you? Visit my bank now!

(https://manifold.markets/embed/levifinkelstein/test-6ebeaf8f8fcd)

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 134

Volume: M101k

Foul play in the death of Gene Hackman

3%

Very unlikely

Gene Hackman (93) and his wife Betsy Arakawa (70) were found dead in their Santa Fe home on February 26, 2025. The circumstances surrounding their deaths have prompted an investigation by local authorities. Initial reports indicate that the bodies...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 24

Volume: M1.6k

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 8?

33%

Unlikely

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from...

★★★☆☆

Polymarket

Liquidity: $709

Champions League: Will Barcelona advance against Dortmund?

99%

Virtually certain

Resolves based on the which team advances.

Barcelona: Yes

Dortmund: No

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 21

Volume: M4.8k

Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2040?

10%

Very unlikely

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Neptune, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2040. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Neptune must occur within a distance of no more...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 10

Volume: M1.5k

Was the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, diagnosed with any mental illnesses prior to the shooting?

16%

Unlikely

resolved by poll if unclear

open until the investigation is sufficiently far along to make a judgement call

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Mental Health Criteria

ADHD is not considered a qualifying mental...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 13

Volume: M273

Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?

19%

Unlikely

Even though the definition of AGI is controversial, the definition of ASI is even more so. For the purposes of this market, the definition of ASI will be one of the following three, with preference for the first listed:

An indisputable "ASI reached"...

★★☆☆☆

Manifold Markets

Forecasters: 40

Volume: M5.9k