Actual estimate: 0.5%

This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 17, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from...

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it...

The RoboCup (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a "grand challenge" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In a paper published in 1995...

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes."...

Resolution Criteria:

The market resolves “Yes” if Amazon officially announces that it has added Bitcoin (BTC) to its balance sheet (B/S) at any time in 2025, as confirmed by credible sources such as press releases, official financial statements, or...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for January 14, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed..

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down".

The resolution...

Based on this tweet:

[image][image]“Talk to animals” here is that scientists are widely understood by the public to be in communication with a non human animal/s.

Or, people can use an app to e.g. talk to their dog.

Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed Resolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Feb 2025

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Mobile Legends: Bang Bang M7 World Championship, scheduled to be determined on January 25, 2026.

If the M7 World Championship is postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner...

Defined as 100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

Resolves according to the Forbes Real Time Billionaires list. If at any point before the end of 2025, any person has a displayed net worth greater than or equal to $500 billion USD, this market resolves YES.

Otherwise, it resolves NO.

If Forbes...

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday.

This market will resolve according to the...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team advances to the Round of 16 of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the Round of...

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on...

The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English. For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition...

A wealth tax is a tax levied on an individual's or household's net wealth, which includes assets such as real estate, financial investments, and personal property, minus any liabilities. There is ongoing debate in the United States regarding the...