The United States and Iran have had poor relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Since the October 7 attack on Israel, tensions between the two countries have grown even higher due to attacks against US and Israeli targets by Iran-backed groups....

https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1899778477093507184

To resolve YES, the website at rationalwiki.org must still be up, or be at a new domain name but still named "RationalWiki", and have roughly the same general ethos and subject matter.

If...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on March 21, 2025.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground,...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59...

The Millennium Prize Problems are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:

• Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

• Hodge conjecture

• Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness

• P...

Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)

Resolves YES if confirmed that Robin Hanson created a market on Manifold by end of the 2025.

@RobinHanson

Resolves as YES if at least 2 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2029.

Different number of robots:

@/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact (this question)

@/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact...

This market will resolve based on national polling data from either Gallup or Pew Research showing whether more than 70% of respondents believe Donald Trump is too old to serve as president.

Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if any national...

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 MLB World Series.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the World Series based on the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this...

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Florida Panthers win the 2025 NHL President’s Trophy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025 President’s Trophy...

Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action...

As part of DOGE activities, they must find something on the governments computers or data networks that leads to at least one person getting indicted.

Resolves July 4, 2026 with possible leeway for anything brewing at that time

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated his readiness to negotiate for peace following the suspension of US military aid by President Donald Trump. This comes after a public clash in the Oval Office. Zelensky expressed his regret over...

Resolves to my judgement. If Tumbles pays off his creditors, or re-negotiates all his loans such that he no longer owes mana, that will count. Only counts peer to peer loans (not manifold).

Resolves NO if Tumbles still owes (uncancelled or...

64.29% (18 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 78.57% of the time.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nikola Vucevic records the greatest number of rebounds of any player in the 2024-2025 NBA Regular Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

In the case of a tie between this player and another...