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Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to the amount federal government...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?
89%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.8k
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $971
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 2?
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market refers to the outcome of the fight between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua scheduled for December 19, 2025, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.

If the fight reaches the listed round, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the fight ends...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $931
Will JD Vance say "Radical Left" at AmericaFest events on December 21?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

AmericaFest is scheduled to take place from December 18 - December 21, 2025, and JD Vance is scheduled to speak on December 21 at 11:07AM ET (https://tpusa.com/agenda/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $828
Will 'Hades II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

The winners of the Steam Award for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $15k
Will the Philadelphia Eagles finish with the best record in the NFL?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes with the best regular season record in the NFL for the 2025-26 Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two or more teams finish with the same best record, the market will...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $749
Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?
15%
Wes Streeting
7%
Andy Burnham
6%
Angela Rayner
6%
Rachel Reeves
6%
Yvette Cooper
Last updated: 2025-03-19
Last updated: 2025-03-19
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £114k
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-27

Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2055, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator. This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people...

Last updated: 2025-05-27
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 21
Volume: M2.2k
Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?
59%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

From Shapson-Coe et al., published May 30th, 2021,

We acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 98
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.5k
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $831
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
27%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.1k
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
52%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of the named CEO's...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.3k
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mahmoud Abbas will be considered...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $7.8k
Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-03

Acquired/bankrupted

If private property no longer exists (e.g. everyone goes commi), resolves to YES

Related Question

Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar anytime before 2034?

Last updated: 2025-05-03
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 49
Volume: M2.0k
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?
11%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-23

English Wikipedia, mainspace.

Last updated: 2025-05-23
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 96
Volume: M12k
On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-05-21

Resolves to my credence. 10% chance to resolve each new year.

Last updated: 2025-05-21
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 16
Volume: M546
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.

Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 93
Will Santiago Castro be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
40%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-12-19

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.4k
Magic vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
52%
Over
48%
Under
Last updated: 2025-12-19

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 18 at 9:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Magic and Nuggets combine to score 237 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 237, this market will resolve to...

Last updated: 2025-12-19
★★★★☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.5k

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