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Will someone at the 2025 Tour de France get 2 yellow cards and be removed from the race?
47%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-19

If you get two yellow cards in a single race, you're supposed to be kicked out of the race and suspended for 7 days. I think that is mainly for riders but if some kind of team staff got 2 yellow cards and was removed, that would also count for this...

Last updated: 2025-06-19
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 10
Volume: M1.9k
Will "Zombie - YUNGBLUD" win Best Rock Song at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?
62%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $728
Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
90%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?

Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M7.3k
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in January?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending January 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.9k
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2025–26 NBA regular season with the highest assists per-game average of any qualified player.

In the event of a tie for the highest assists per-game average, this market will resolve...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $1.1k
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-11

Resolves YES if at least one of Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, or Ketanji Brown Jackson leaves the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term, and resolves NO otherwise.

"Trump's presidential term" means the current term, lasting until January...

Last updated: 2025-05-11
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M999
Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $28k
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
98%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2026-01-30

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $13k
Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?
43%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-05-15

IE not spending the normal time in office for any reason including resignation, illness, change in the law, or any other reason, based on the laws as of 2023

Last updated: 2025-05-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 41
Volume: M1.6k
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-08?
63%
Likely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 8, 2026 If Juventus FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $2.2k
Will Rupert Murdoch reach the age of 94
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2025-03-10

He was born on the 11th of March 1931

He is currently 93

Last updated: 2025-03-10
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M6.1k
Will GamerLegion win IEM Krakow 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Krakow 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for January 28 - February 8, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $4.7k
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note:...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in February?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between Februrary 1 and Februrary 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.0k
Will a FOIA request reveal that Kalshi was primarily responsible for CFTC's decision to shut down PredictIt?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-16

Background: The CFTC ruled that PredictIt must cease operating prediction markets in the US. Many have speculated that Kalshi was primarily responsible for the shutdown. Apparently someone filed a Freedom of Information request about the CFTC's...

Last updated: 2025-04-16
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 29
Volume: M2.0k
GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018
60%
Likely
Last updated: 2022-03-30

Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)

Last updated: 2022-03-30
★★☆☆☆
GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
Will Charalambos Kostoulas be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes"....

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★☆☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $6.4k
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $16k
Will Matt Gaetz become the next Governor of Florida in 2026?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-05

[tweet]Republican House member Matt Gaetz has strongly hinted at a potential campaign for the 2026 Florida governorship. Will he be successful? If so, market will resolve as YES.

Last updated: 2025-05-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 25
Volume: M999
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
28%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $3.0k
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2026-01-30

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If...

Last updated: 2026-01-30
★★★☆☆
Polymarket
Liquidity: $72k

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