15%
Unlikely

This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by June 30th, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $3.3k
20%
Unlikely

On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?

To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:

A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
12%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?
  • How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

***In 2023 will any other war...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 70
32%
Unlikely
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
48%
About Even

In late June, America began sending High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent on the condition that Ukraine would not use them against...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 129

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?
  • Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

In 2014, Russia invaded...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 56
99%
Virtually certain

NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the Bayraktar TB2, anti-tank weapons like the NLAW, artillery and long-range rocket systems like...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 324
7%
Very unlikely

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 981
7%
Very unlikely

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

According to Newsweek, in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 596
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, Стаття 116, 1-1. On February 28, 2022, during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 393
30%
Unlikely

Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in efforts to mediate the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a rapprochement with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has been selling drones to Ukraine since 2019...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 105
12%
Unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total,...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 224
Forecasters: 106
29%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 314

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is among the United States military's most...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
  • Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?

The US and NATO have...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
  • If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

On February 27,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 919
67%
Likely

In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 49
9%
Very unlikely

In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving de facto independence as the unrecognized Checen Republic of Ichkeria....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 212
25%
Unlikely

Israel, a close US ally, has given humanitarian aid to and has established a field hospital in Ukraine. It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 230
99%
Virtually certain

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?

NATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 118
5%
Very unlikely

Currently the possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb is being discussed. Russia has accused Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have emphatically denied this.

A "dirty bomb" is defined by the CDC as the use of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134

MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and soon the price of RUR (the Russian currency) plummeted. On February 28,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 11

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 472

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. In response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 826
54%
Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%
20%
Higher by between 6.00% and 9.00%, inclusive
16%
Higher by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive
11%
Lower by more than 0.00%
< 1%
Higher by more than 9.00%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 30
Forecasters: 17

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

The number of active-duty troops in Ukraine's standing army before the Russian invasion of 2022 will serve as the base...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 243

As of April 13, 2022, NATO had 30 member states. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, NATO recognized Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as potential new members. The war has inspired speculation on further NATO enlargement, such as by the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 150
19%
Unlikely

On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, on high alert. On February 28, an anonymous US official told Reuters, "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48
10%
Unlikely

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 616
Forecasters: 424
88%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
8%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
2%
Less than 200
1%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
< 1%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
★★☆☆☆
Infer
Forecasts: 623
Forecasters: 99
71%
Not before 19 August 2023
19%
Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023
8%
Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023
2%
Before 26 February 2023
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 525
Forecasters: 336
20%
Unlikely
★★★☆☆
Peter Wildeford
11%
Unlikely

While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast, Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 767
Forecasters: 352
14%
Unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 168
Forecasters: 122
15%
Unlikely

About the Potential Recipient: Volodymr Zelenskyy became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically (English Wikipedia pageviews, Google Trends). Sentiment in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 201
7%
Very unlikely

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. In recent months, there have been...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 146
11%
Unlikely

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 114
3%
Very unlikely

When Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 724
16%
Unlikely

Russia invaded Ukraine, a non-NATO member. Ukraine borders Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, all NATO members.

It is possible that on the border between these countries, or elsewhere, Russian forces fight with NATO forces.

***Will there be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 286
4%
Very unlikely

On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association predicted that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):

Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In January 2021, the German Council on Foreign Relations released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:

Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 940
30%
Unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?

From the Wikipedia article 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine:

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 287
5%
Very unlikely

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 156
6%
Very unlikely

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1071
3%
Very unlikely

Dnipro experienced its first missile attack in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. Former NATO commander in Europe, Wesley Clark said on CNN on April 3, 2022, "[...] the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 471

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

As part of the 2022 invasion, Russia has launched offensives in various parts of Ukraine, including in the north) and northeast....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 69

Martial law was declared in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion.

Martial law was originally declared for 30 days. It has since been prolonged three times: by 30, 30, and 90 days respectively. Therefore, it would end on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 56
43%
More than 126.0 but less than 134.0
24%
Between 134.0 and 142.0, inclusive
13%
Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive
13%
More than 142.0 but less than 150.0
4%
150.0 or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 57
Forecasters: 31

On February 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, US President Joe Biden gave a prepared speech on how the US would respond:

Although we provided over $650 million in defensive assistance to Ukraine just this year - this last year, let me say...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1259

Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been trending downward, especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 232

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

  • How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?

  • How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?


On February 21,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1435

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