This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by December 31st, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

[From ACX Mini-Grants: Impact Markets]

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official announcement of a ceasefire agreement, regardless of the ceasefire's length, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,...

According to the New York Times:

Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023],...

There have been several accusations of Israel using white phosphorus following the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas. According to CBS News:

Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under...

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• Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?
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In 2014, Russia invaded...

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. Before the invasion, Russian troops massed near Ukraine's borders, as Russian officials denied plans to attack. Russia's president, Vladimir...

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it...

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

According to Newsweek, in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia...

In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, Стаття 116, 1-1. On February 28, 2022, during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an...

Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in efforts to mediate the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a rapprochement with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has been selling drones to Ukraine since 2019...

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (Politico, Newsweek). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or...

Related questions on Metaculus:

• Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
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The US and NATO have...

After the Russian's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; sanctions, boycotts, protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment,...

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
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On February 27,...

In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure....

Israel, a close US ally, has given humanitarian aid to and has established a field hospital in Ukraine. It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel...

Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Newsweek, AP, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's...

Currently the possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb is being discussed. Russia has accused Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have emphatically denied this.

A "dirty bomb" is defined by the CDC as the use of...

On February 24th, 2022, shortly after the start of Russia-Ukraine war, Boris Johnson banned Russian airlines from flying to the UK. EU soon followed and implemented restrictions on flights between EU and Russia lasting until 2029. Russia soon...

MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and soon the price of RUR (the Russian currency) plummeted. On February 28,...

Related Question on Metaculus:

• What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

The number of active-duty troops in Ukraine's standing army before the Russian invasion of 2022 will serve as the base...

As of April 13, 2022, NATO had 30 member states. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, NATO recognized Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as potential new members. The war has inspired speculation on further NATO enlargement, such as by the...

On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, on high alert. On February 28, an anonymous US official told Reuters, "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of...

Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article...

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not...

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

When Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include...

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World...

On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association predicted that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):

Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the...

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In January 2021, the German Council on Foreign Relations released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:

Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and...

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

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Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be...

As the consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, The Guardian reports:

“Thousands of Ukrainians have left the country and as many as 100,000 are internally displaced after fleeing their homes following the attack ordered by Vladimir Putin.”...

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a "special military operation" in Ukraine. This decision has been criticized internationally, particularly by Western countries, as an unprovoked invasion. Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on...

Martial law was declared in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion.

Martial law was originally declared for 30 days. It has since been prolonged three times: by 30, 30, and 90 days respectively. Therefore, it would end on...

On February 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, US President Joe Biden gave a prepared speech on how the US would respond:

Although we provided over $650 million in defensive assistance to Ukraine just this year - this last year, let me say...

Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been trending downward, especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out...