This market resolves YES if:

An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April...

Resolves NO one year after the war ends without video release.

The market resolves to YES if a formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire (inspired by Nicola Wilson's market).

Related...

They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump

He didn't have that done in 24 hours, nor 24 days. Will he have that done in 24 weeks?

Resolution...

Resolves NO if:

USA or Iran directly engage each other militarily (does not have to be full out war but an assassination, a few non-military boats sunk or something similar will not be enough either. Looking for something that greatly exceeds the...

Most see this conflict as dragging out for years. It seems that way now.

But with a new US administration after January 2025, there may be less energy for supporting Ukraine's war efforts, and more energy for making a ceasefire deal happen.

JD...

resolves yes if trump steps foot in russia by the end of his term

Update 2024-09-12 (PST): - Visiting a Russian embassy in a country other than Russia does not count as visiting Russia (AI summary of creator comment)

The United States is currently a key military and financial supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in military aid to Ukraine and maintains a strong alliance with the country. There is no historical...

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Lex Fridman has returned from Russia before January 1st 2026. I the context of this question, "returning from Russia" is defined as returning to a Western country.

If there is no evidence that Lex...

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...

EET time zone. If the war ends on midnight between 2026 and 2027 this market exactly resolves YES.

If a peace treaty is signed and guerrilla fighting continues question will still resolve yes.

The Suwałki Gap is a short strip of land that separates the Baltics from the rest of NATO, stretching from Kaliningrad to Belarus.

[image]In the event of a conflict between NATO, Russia might attempt to close the Suwałki Gap to isolate the Baltics..

This market will resolve YES, if Russian army launches rockets against one of the aforementioned countries or Russian troops enter their territory by December 31, 2030

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing since February 2022, with current military activities focused on several fronts:

Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces are pushing to capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and secure Donetsk...

As well as similar markets, this question will be resolved by YES only if a true armistice as been ratified.

Trump has the goal of signing a mineral deal which grants the United States access to rare earth elements in Ukraine. If that deal is signed before April, it qualifies as a "yes".

This market will immediately resolve YES if a ceasefire lasting at least one full day occurs within the next 30 days. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

I will not bet in this market.

Background:

https://edition.cnn..

This poll explores whether President Trump, will bring an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine within the first 90 days of his new term (By 21st-April-2025).

Resolves YES if a verifiable peace agreement or ceasefire is achieved, before or within 90...

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31121)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days,...