13%
Unlikely

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 519
15%
Unlikely

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

According to Newsweek, in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 471
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, Стаття 116, 1-1. On February 28, 2022, during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 318
31%
Unlikely

Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in efforts to mediate the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a rapprochement with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has been selling drones to Ukraine since 2019...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 92
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?

  • Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?

  • Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?

  • Will Russian troops enter...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1062
3%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?

  • Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1859
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and attacked Kyiv; its forces moved toward Kyiv from Belarus. In early March, heavy fighting in the northwestern...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1830
45%
About Even

Israel, a close US ally, has given humanitarian aid to and has established a field hospital in Ukraine. It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 160
66%
Likely

Israel, a close US ally, has given humanitarian aid to and has established a field hospital in Ukraine. It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 239
5%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
  • [ Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?](https://www.metaculus..
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 239
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
  • Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?

On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?
  • [ Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?](https://www.metaculus..
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 103
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 16
5%
Very unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 37
20%
Unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 34
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 25
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 14
40%
About Even

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
50%
About Even

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 37
44%
About Even

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 34
5%
Very unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 21
40%
About Even

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 27
25%
Unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 22
25%
Unlikely

The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in 1949 with 12 founding members, consisting of a series of Articles that set forth obligations of member states to one another and to their collective defense. Since its inception the number of member states to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26

Kherson (Херсо́н) is a city of 280,000 people in the south of Ukraine, and the administrative center of Kherson Oblast. It's a port with access to both the Black Sea and the Dnipro River (including a bridge crossing).

On March 2, 2022, the city fell...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1355
93%
Not before 1 December 2022
6%
Between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2022
1%
Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022
< 1%
Before 1 June 2022
< 1%
Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 1488
Forecasters: 300

MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and soon the price of RUR (the Russian currency) plummeted. On February 28,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 11

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 352

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. In response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 615

The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon in June. However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to previous spikes in 1981, 2008, and 2011-2014. The US Energy Information Agency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 10

The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon in June. However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to previous spikes in 1981, 2008, and 2011-2014. The US Energy Information Agency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19

The US has seen record high prices of gasoline in 2022, reaching $5.00 per gallon in June. However, when adjusting for inflation, June's gas prices are comparable to previous spikes in 1981, 2008, and 2011-2014. The US Energy Information Agency...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 52
33%
Lower by more than 8.0% but less than 12.0%
27%
Lower by between 4.0% and 8.0%, inclusive
17%
Lower by between 12.0% and 16.0%, inclusive
8%
Lower by more than 16.0% but less than 20.0%
8%
Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 487
Forecasters: 106

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

The number of active-duty troops in Ukraine's standing army before the Russian invasion of 2022 will serve as the base...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 191

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

On Feb 28, 2022 Ukrainian and Russian officials started cease-fire talks on the Belarusian border. A lasting...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 855

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?

  • Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 868

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

  • Will Kyiv fall by 2023?


Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and attacked Kyiv ; its forces moved toward Kyiv from Belarus. In early March, heavy...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 549

As of April 13, 2022, NATO had 30 member states. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, NATO recognized Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as potential new members. The war has inspired speculation on further NATO enlargement, such as by the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 128
68%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
21%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
5%
Less than 200
4%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
2%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
★★☆☆☆
Infer
Forecasts: 380
Forecasters: 90
13%
Unlikely

About the Potential Recipient: Volodymr Zelenskyy became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically (English Wikipedia pageviews, Google Trends). Sentiment in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 117
7%
Very unlikely

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80
5%
Very unlikely

When Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 541
10%
Unlikely

Russia invaded Ukraine, a non-NATO member. Ukraine borders Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, all NATO members.

It is possible that on the border between these countries, or elsewhere, Russian forces fight with NATO forces.

***Will there be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187
6%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?

  • If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 2983
5%
Very unlikely

On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association predicted that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):

Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 156
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In January 2021, the German Council on Foreign Relations released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:

Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 833
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 2864
5%
Very unlikely

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 146
13%
Unlikely

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 969
5%
Very unlikely

Dnipro experienced its first missile attack in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. Former NATO commander in Europe, Wesley Clark said on CNN on April 3, 2022, "[...] the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 374
30%
Unlikely

As the consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, The Guardian reports:

“Thousands of Ukrainians have left the country and as many as 100,000 are internally displaced after fleeing their homes following the attack ordered by Vladimir Putin.”...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1000

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