10%
Unlikely

This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis..

★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $46k
95%
The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).
< 1%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
42%
The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.
40%
The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.
13%
The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.
5%
Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.
< 1%
The US Air Force carried out the attack.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
98%
Ola Kravchenko murdered Tair Rada.
1%
Roman Zdorov murdered Tair Rada.
< 1%
Between 1-4 Nofey Golan students murdered Tair Rada.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
92%
Very likely

This market shall resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin holds the office of President of Russia without interruption through December 31st, 2023. Resolution Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/
The "Bet Locks" feature is enabled. This means...

★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $13k
86%
No, Putin does not have cancer, and has not had cancer in the last 10 years.
13%
Yes, Putin either has, or had within the last 10 years, any type of cancer (excluding thyroid).
< 1%
Yes, Putin either has, or had in the last 10 years, thyroid cancer.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
10%
Unlikely

This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by December 31st, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $4.2k
91%
Not before 1 October 2024
7%
Between 16 June 2024 and 30 September 2024
2%
Between 1 March 2024 and 15 June 2024
< 1%
Before 1 March 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 1127
Forecasters: 515
98%
Not before 1 July 2024
2%
Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024
< 1%
Before 1 January 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 846
Forecasters: 221
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 383
42%
About Even

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In 2023 Ukraine commenced a counteroffensive, though as of October 30, 2023, Ukraine's gains have been modest, and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

<iframe...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 574
80%
Likely

The ICJ has issued an injunction calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert has suggested that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.

Ukraine has indicated they are at least considering...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 40
72%
At least 15%, but less than 20%
13%
20% or more
10%
At least 10%, but less than 15%
3%
At least 5%, but less than 10%
2%
Less than 5%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 952
Forecasters: 408
28%
Unlikely

From NATO's site:

  • In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 233
20%
Unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?

President Zelenskyy of Ukraine formally applied to join the European Union on Monday, February 28, 2022.

"We ask the European Union for Ukraine’s immediate...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 913
3%
Very unlikely

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 310
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:

  • In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 307
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 116
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Previous Questions on Metaculus

  • Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?
  • Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
  • Will Ukraine regain control...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 823
20%
Unlikely

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 102
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 412
8%
Very unlikely

US-Russia relations have been strained and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended, due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 648
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The Wikipedia page on Russo-Sino foreign relations notes that:

"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 398
20%
Unlikely

Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 17

Russian laws prohibiting “LGBT propaganda” have been widely criticized by human rights groups and international organizations as discriminatory, homophobic and violating freedom of expression and information.

These laws were first put into effect in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
67%
Likely

In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest has reported that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 114
3%
Very unlikely

The Kuril Islands Dispute is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 172
15%
Unlikely

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213
99%
Virtually certain

Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 121
25%
Unlikely

It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging).

The next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.

There...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 476
38%
Unlikely

In February 2023, Yahoo News (as well as Delfi Estonia, the Dossier Center, Expressen, Kyiv Independent, and others) received a leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office. This document outlines a detailed plan of Russia taking...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 184
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as a further potential point of conflict....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 560
10%
Unlikely

Recent analyses have suggested that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

There is historical precedent in widows of opposition figures rising to become leaders of their countries, such as Corazon Aquino of the Philippines or Violeta Chamorro of Nicaragua. On February 19, 2024, following the assassination of her husband...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 56
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Reporting suggests that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the Donetsk oblast. Ukraine has reportedly said that Russia aims to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 622
4%
Very unlikely

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (Politico). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (Fox News, AP)....

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 166
Forecasters: 71

Martial law was declared in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion.

Martial law was originally declared for 30 days. It has since been prolonged three times: by 30, 30, and 90 days respectively. Therefore, it would end on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 227

Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky is a Ukrainian politician who has been serving as the sixth president of Ukraine since 2019. He was formerly a comedian and actor. Since the start of the Russo-Ukraine conflict, numerous Ukrainian political parties...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47

Another question in this tournament asks Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?. This question asks more specifically when such a war will occur, if it does occur by 2050. Taken together, these questions can inform our views on:

  • How much people...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 252
26%
Unlikely

In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution.

The possible defeat of Russia in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1594
40%
About Even

Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law was signed, all consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended, including issuing and renewing passports.

In light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by Russian...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 11

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia? [closed]

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1787

Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 124
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In June the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) issued a public statement claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the US National Security Agency (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91
4%
Very unlikely

According to Wikipedia:

"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 651

On February 24, 2022, Russia began a "special military operation" in Ukraine. This decision has been criticized internationally, particularly by Western countries, as an unprovoked invasion. Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 310
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 83

Russia has a long history of discrimination and violence against transgender people. According to a 2017 Human Rights Watch report, transgender people in Russia face “abuse, harassment and violence from both state and non-state actors.” Transgender...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 17
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. Before the invasion, Russian troops massed near Ukraine's borders, as Russian officials denied plans to attack. Russia's president, Vladimir...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 198
8%
Very unlikely

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 68
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 183

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