2%
Exceptionally unlikely

This market will resolve positively if there is an announcement of an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by June 30th, 2023. A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian...

★★★☆☆
Insight
Volume: $6.6k
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 234
11%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?
  • How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024?

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 308
35%
Unlikely

While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (AP). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 138
Forecasters: 73

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?
  • Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

In 2014, Russia invaded...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 147
5%
Very unlikely

The city of Sevastopol in Crimea currently holds the Russian Black Sea Fleet in its naval base, which has been crucial to Russia's operations in Syria since 2014.

As the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1237
5%
Very unlikely

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

According to Newsweek, in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said "Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 743
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, Стаття 116, 1-1. On February 28, 2022, during the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 484
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Armiansk is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine, preparing for a likely spring counteroffensive, would like to retake Crimea, which could be a "red...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 79
29%
Unlikely

Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in efforts to mediate the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a rapprochement with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has been selling drones to Ukraine since 2019...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135
4%
Very unlikely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
5%
Very unlikely

Transnistria is a separatist-controlled region of Moldova, controlled by a pro-Russian government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Ukraine War, there have been numerous reports of a potential invasion of the region....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 130
4%
Very unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total,...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 434
Forecasters: 140

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is among the United States military's most...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
  • Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?

The US and NATO have...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67
53%
About Even

After the Russian's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; sanctions, boycotts, protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 25
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
  • If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?

On February 27,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1594
43%
About Even

In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 109
27%
Unlikely

Israel, a close US ally, has given humanitarian aid to and has established a field hospital in Ukraine. It has accepted some Ukrainian refugees and voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same. Israel...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 281
3%
Very unlikely

Currently the possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb is being discussed. Russia has accused Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have emphatically denied this.

A "dirty bomb" is defined by the CDC as the use of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188

MOEX (Moscow Exchange) is one of the two large Russian stock exchanges. Typically, MOEX used to be open Monday through Friday. On February 24 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and soon the price of RUR (the Russian currency) plummeted. On February 28,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 11

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. The new sanctions imposed on it internationally because of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 580

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?

Russia's economy has been devastated by Western sanctions since 2014. In response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1047

Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the most recent round of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29.

The number of active-duty troops in Ukraine's standing army before the Russian invasion of 2022 will serve as the base...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 293

As of April 13, 2022, NATO had 30 member states. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine War, NATO recognized Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as potential new members. The war has inspired speculation on further NATO enlargement, such as by the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 188
4%
Very unlikely

On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, on high alert. On February 28, an anonymous US official told Reuters, "I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 83
5%
Very unlikely

Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Mass.gov). For...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 1064
Forecasters: 514
4%
Very unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, China has shared a peace plan for the countries (AP, BBC, NBC News). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. If either Xi or Zelensky cease to...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 465
Forecasters: 155
11%
Unlikely

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden moved to join the NATO alliance (USIP, CNN). Accession talks were completed in July 2022, and both countries were set to join NATO after the parliaments of all NATO states ratified their...

★★☆☆☆
Infer
Forecasts: 176
Forecasters: 73
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The European Union has been working to facilitate the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia for more than a decade (SWP). In February of 2023, the EU-proposed an Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia and in...

★★☆☆☆
Infer
Forecasts: 84
Forecasters: 41
89%
Not before 19 August 2023
9%
Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023
2%
Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023
< 1%
Before 26 February 2023
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 1050
Forecasters: 434
20%
Unlikely
★★★☆☆
Peter Wildeford
9%
Very unlikely

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 602
Forecasters: 200
8%
Very unlikely

About the Potential Recipient: Volodymr Zelenskyy became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically (English Wikipedia pageviews, Google Trends). Sentiment in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 332
7%
Very unlikely

The Union State is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 171
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

When Ukraine applied for NATO membership in 2008 their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 866
7%
Very unlikely

Russia invaded Ukraine, a non-NATO member. Ukraine borders Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, all NATO members.

It is possible that on the border between these countries, or elsewhere, Russian forces fight with NATO forces.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 430
20%
Unlikely

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 512
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association predicted that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):

Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 217
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On February 23, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. In January 2021, the German Council on Foreign Relations released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:

Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1095
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?

From the Wikipedia article 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine:

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 680
5%
Very unlikely

Moldova and Romania speak the same language and reunification has been a possibility since independence. This Jan 2022 article quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.

That was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213
4%
Very unlikely

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008. Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1187
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Dnipro experienced its first missile attack in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. Former NATO commander in Europe, Wesley Clark said on CNN on April 3, 2022, "[...] the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 643
71%
Likely

Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, 31 countries have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 213

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?

As part of the 2022 invasion, Russia has launched offensives in various parts of Ukraine, including in the north) and northeast....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 365

Martial law was declared in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion.

Martial law was originally declared for 30 days. It has since been prolonged three times: by 30, 30, and 90 days respectively. Therefore, it would end on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 81
64%
More than 126.0 but less than 134.0
33%
Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive
2%
Less than 118.0
< 1%
Between 134.0 and 142.0, inclusive
< 1%
More than 142.0 but less than 150.0
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 179
Forecasters: 36

On February 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, US President Joe Biden gave a prepared speech on how the US would respond:

Although we provided over $650 million in defensive assistance to Ukraine just this year - this last year, let me say...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1259

Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been trending downward, especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 261

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

  • How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?

  • How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?


On February 21,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1435

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