This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is...
A temporary ceasefires is not enough to resolve Yes.
The market resolves to YES if a formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire (inspired by Nicola Wilson's market).
Related...
They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump
He didn't have that done in 24 hours, nor 24 days. Will he have that done in 24 weeks?
Resolution...
This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an...
If a peace treaty is signed and guerrilla fighting continues question will still resolve yes.
https://www.ripbs.org/news-and-culture/harvard-scientist-with-valid-visa-detained-for-bringing-frog-embryos-to-logan-airport
Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Kseniia Petrova is deported to Russia. The...
His pro-Putin propaganda just keeps spillin'. Has Musk been bought by Putin? Open until resolved.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1764081986228883800
https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/201/
https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/203/
https://www..
The possession of a nuclear weapon must be officially confirmed either by Ukrainian government or by a government of a major Western country.
Resolves YES if Putin is no longer a president and does not become a prime minister and does not assume any other high political position (or he simply dies).
Resolution criteria: up to 40% for Elon, up to 40% for Russia's involvement, remaining 20% for the use of Starlink
[image]This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky. They will be resolved to PROB based on the...
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31121)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days,...
This market resolves YES if there are documented instances of long queues (>1 hour wait time) for basic consumer goods in at least 3 major Russian cities during 2025, as reported by major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg)....
The United States has been a significant supporter of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Recently, there have been diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has temporarily...
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/macron-france-nuclear-arsenal-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
France will consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday, while warning...
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon...
From the 2025 ACX Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31357)I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:
Xi...
Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore? Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing...