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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 8
Volume: M2.7k
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
5%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 37
Volume: M3.3k
Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 50
Volume: M5.2k
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
51%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

A temporary ceasefires is not enough to resolve Yes.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M4.2k
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The market resolves to YES if a formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire (inspired by Nicola Wilson's market).

Related...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 513
Volume: M342k
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration?
3%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump

He didn't have that done in 24 hours, nor 24 days. Will he have that done in 24 weeks?

Resolution...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 172
Volume: M72k
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the Russo-Ukrainian War (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 473
Volume: M173k
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2026
14%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

If a peace treaty is signed and guerrilla fighting continues question will still resolve yes.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 135
Volume: M51k
Will Kseniia Petrova be deported to Russia?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

https://www.ripbs.org/news-and-culture/harvard-scientist-with-valid-visa-detained-for-bringing-frog-embryos-to-logan-airport

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Kseniia Petrova is deported to Russia. The...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M275
Has Elon Musk been bought by Russia?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

His pro-Putin propaganda just keeps spillin'. Has Musk been bought by Putin? Open until resolved.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1764081986228883800

https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/201/

https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/203/

https://www..

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 63
Volume: M4.6k
Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The possession of a nuclear weapon must be officially confirmed either by Ukrainian government or by a government of a major Western country.

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M2.0k
Will Vladimir Putin lose political power in Russia before 2026?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves YES if Putin is no longer a president and does not become a prime minister and does not assume any other high political position (or he simply dies).

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 57
Volume: M7.7k
Will the Russia/Ukrainian war end before the end of 2025?
15%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15
Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 15
Volume: M1.6k
Did "Elon Musk and Russia participate in election interference via Starlink"?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolution criteria: up to 40% for Elon, up to 40% for Russia's involvement, remaining 20% for the use of Starlink

[image]This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through BlueSky. They will be resolved to PROB based on the...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 7
Volume: M1.4k
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31121)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days,...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 93
Volume: M56k
Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025?
12%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

This market resolves YES if there are documented instances of long queues (>1 hour wait time) for basic consumer goods in at least 3 major Russian cities during 2025, as reported by major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg)....

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 11
Volume: M1.3k
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?
48%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

The United States has been a significant supporter of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Recently, there have been diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has temporarily...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 55
Volume: M3.3k
Will France extend its nuclear protection to other countries before 2029?
58%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/macron-france-nuclear-arsenal-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

France will consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies, French President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday, while warning...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 14
Volume: M413
Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
35%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.

Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 24
Volume: M3.3k
Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?
36%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-06-15

From the 2025 ACX Prediction Contest:

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31357)I will resolve based on the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:

Xi...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M11k
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
46%
About Even
Last updated: 2025-06-15

Will there be a major change with Trump's election such that the U.S. does not live in a traditional US Democracy anymore? Such conditions would include things like: Trump running for a 3rd term, declaration of Martial Law at any point, removing...

Last updated: 2025-06-15
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 532
Volume: M168k