This market resolves YES if:
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April...
They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump
He didn't have that done in 24 hours, nor 24 days. Will he have that done in 24 weeks?
Resolution...
This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources..
Most see this conflict as dragging out for years. It seems that way now.
But with a new US administration after January 2025, there may be less energy for supporting Ukraine's war efforts, and more energy for making a ceasefire deal happen.
JD...
Resolves NO if:
USA or Iran directly engage each other militarily (does not have to be full out war but an assassination, a few non-military boats sunk or something similar will not be enough either. Looking for something that greatly exceeds the...
This is one of 25 props in the tenth annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2025-narcissist-forecasting-contest
It will be adjudicated by judges as described in the fine print of the entry...
The United States is currently a key military and financial supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in military aid to Ukraine and maintains a strong alliance with the country. There is no historical...
resolves yes if trump steps foot in russia by the end of his term
resolves yes if trump steps foot in russia by the end of his term
Update 2024-09-12 (PST): - Visiting a Russian embassy in a country other than Russia does not count as visiting Russia (AI summary of creator comment)
Background Recent negotiations between Russia and Elon Musk regarding potential space technology collaborations have been reported. However, no official plans for a visit have been announced.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if...
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).
[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily...
This question resolves to 'Yes' if, by April 30th 2025, if:
There is a ceasefire deal proposed by either Ukraine or the United States
Russia doesn't accept it
The US pressures Russia in the ways below:
Relevant ways of pressuring...
This market is about whether Donald Trump, the current President of the United States, will visit Moscow, the capital of Russia, in 2025.
Resolving Rules
This question will be resolved YES shortly after the visit occurs, or it will be resolved NO...
Resolves YES if Congress passes new legislation allocating additional aid to Ukraine by June 30, 2025, NO otherwise.
This poll explores whether President Trump, will bring an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine within the first 90 days of his new term (By 21st-April-2025).
Resolves YES if a verifiable peace agreement or ceasefire is achieved, before or within 90...
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/31121)Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days,...
The unexplained health incidents dubbed the "Havana Syndrome," reported by American and Canadian diplomats in Cuba, China, and other countries since 2016, have raised concerns about potential directed energy attacks. While the cause remains...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_Airlines_Flight_8243
Resolves YES if by close date a relevant official body of the Russian federation or Chechen republic accept most of the responsibility for the crash.
Relevant bodies include: president,...
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