In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving de facto independence as the unrecognized Checen Republic of Ichkeria....

The Millennium Prize Problems are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the...

Related Questions on Metaculus:

• Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?
• Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

There is a large variation in the median age of...

You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here.

The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale....

The Wikipedia page on Russo-Sino foreign relations notes that:

"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit...

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed...

The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small...

While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly...

On 20 March 2024, Georgia Judge Scott McAfee ruled that defendants could appeal his decision to not disqualify Willis and leave the criminal indictments in place after he decided that Willis could proceed with the prosecution so long as now-former...

As large language models (LLMs) gain more impressive capabilities, there are increasing fears within the AI alignment community as well as the general public that these models could be misused to cause severely negative outcomes. While companies like...

Related Queston on Metaculus:

• Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?

Sam Bankman-Fried is currently the richest person in crypto as well as the richest person under 30. He plans on donating the...

Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Deutsche Welle, Anadolu Agency, Newsweek, Sarajevo...

Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated 3.1 million square km were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the PRODES survey on the amount of annual deforestation in Amazônia Legal, the...

Brian Riedl is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a think tank which describes its mission as follows

...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.

Alan Cole blogs about the...

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture.

From the Federation of American Scientists:

Research and engineering to reverse...