This question is inspired by the linked Long Bet between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.

The bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards.

"Where does 1.8 percent fit into...

In May 2014, the WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency, leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and several African nations continue to report cases of wild and...

Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer...

Over three years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (AP, US Institute of Peace, International Crisis Group). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not...

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides. This was the second time in as many years that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed...

*There is an active question on "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?" however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the...

Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions...

Elon Musk is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is...

In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)

There is a companion question BTC...

From NATO's site:

• In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September...

All currently licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are administered via an intramuscular injection. There is currently interest in another approach: intranasal vaccination00025-1/fulltext), which is usually given as a spray into the nose. It is thought that...

On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass...

Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement...

On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double...

War between Egypt and Ethiopia is a growing fear. If water rights over the Nile are not settled peacefully, it is feared Egypt could attack Ethiopia. Specifically, it is commonly speculated that Egypt could bomb the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam...

In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He writes,

If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we...

Joseph Fischer and others were charged with crimes for their actions in the riot at the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021 as Congress was tallying electoral votes, including a criminal charge for violating 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c) that concerns...

On 28 February 2024, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal (Supremecourt.gov - Trump v. US Docket) from the DC Circuit's decision that he did not have presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6...