< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) is defined by <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/annex-2-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29" target="_blank">WHO</a> as "an extraordinary event which is...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
96%
Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.
4%
The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.

On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that...

★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135

In July 2023, the globally recognized social media platform Twitter underwent a significant rebranding, changing its name to "X." This rebranding marked a pivotal shift in the company's identity, reflecting new strategic directions or branding...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 21
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on October 22nd, 2023, the company (now rebranded to "X") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the removal of blue checkmarks from legacy users and ad boycotts that have significantly hurt the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1355

Open Philanthropy is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48

Open Philanthropy is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 74
13%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between December 26, 2023, and January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

An...

★★★☆☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.5k

There is an extensive history of laboratory biosecurity incidents, including at high-security laboratories. One paper by Manheim and Lewis (2021) found 71 incidents involving "either accidental or purposeful exposure to, or infection by, a highly...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187
34%
Unlikely

India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are extreme climate event hotspots. Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 61
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 337

A recent blog post from Adapt Research explains,

Recognising the potentially unbearable impact of global catastrophic risks, the US has just passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act.

The Act requires the Secretary of Homeland Security...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50
62%
Likely

The evaluation of newly developed AI systems before deployment by organizations specializing in this task has been proposed as a strategy for mitigating catastrophic risks posed by such systems [1]. This idea has gained traction – GPT-4 was evaluated...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 53
22%
Unlikely

The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):

  • Natural pandemics
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Synthetic biology
  • Nanotechnology
  • Climate...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91
15%
Unlikely

In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 55
10%
Unlikely

In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 56
15%
Unlikely

In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 55
41%
Between 6 October 2024 and 5 December 2024
34%
Before 6 October 2024
13%
Not before 7 March 2025
12%
Between 6 December 2024 and 6 March 2025
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 91
Forecasters: 32
3%
Exceptionally unlikely

Recent headlines from Elon Musk and various companies suspending or quitting advertising on the social media platform has observers speculating about the financial future of the firm (BBC, CNN, CNBC). A bankruptcy filing for the corporate successor...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 487
Forecasters: 115

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