55%
About Even

Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 495
40%
At least 2 million, but fewer than 5 million
23%
At least 5 million, but fewer than 8 million
17%
At least 8 million, but fewer than 11 million
12%
Fewer than 2 million
5%
At least 11 million, but fewer than 14 million
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 56
Forecasters: 23
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Queston on Metaculus:

  • Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?

Sam Bankman-Fried is currently the richest person in crypto as well as the richest person under 30. He plans on donating the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 299
75%
Not before 1 August 2024
25%
Between 2 May 2024 and 31 July 2024
< 1%
Before 2 November 2023
< 1%
Between 2 November 2023 and 31 January 2024
< 1%
Between 1 February 2024 and 1 May 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 465
Forecasters: 41
99%
Virtually certain

Elon Musk, the world’s richest person known for leading companies like SpaceX and Tesla, expanded his portfolio by acquiring Twitter for $44 billion in October 2022. Under his leadership, the company underwent significant changes, including a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 245
16%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?

  • Will there be a US-China war by 2035?

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 311
40%
About Even
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1836
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Founded in 2015 by notable figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, OpenAI began as a non-profit organization with a vision to advance AI technology for the benefit of humanity. However, in 2019, OpenAI transitioned to a "capped" for-profit model,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 268
43%
About Even

The federal criminal case United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.

The case brings 37 charges against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 29
43%
Yes, and the vote will be in the affirmative for the move
37%
No
20%
Yes, but the vote will not be in the affirmative for the move
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 94
Forecasters: 44
41%
About Even

India has shifted from its heavy dependence on Russia for arms and weapons over the past several years, all while trying to balance the strength of its relationship with Moscow as Chinese military spending climbs (US News & World Report, BBC)....

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 80
Forecasters: 49
20%
Unlikely

In 2023, researchers at the Alignment Research Center, ARC, evaluated GPT-4. ARC researchers summarized their methodology and finding as follows, "We prompted the model with instructions that explained that it was running on a cloud server and had...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 158
16%
Unlikely

As the 2024 Summer Olympics approach in France, security concerns are running high (NBC News, El País, ASIS International, Olympics - Paris 2024 Schedule). The surfing competition will take place in Tahiti, which is in French Polynesia (Olympics -...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 57
Forecasters: 41
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Scope

This is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120
5%
Very unlikely

Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed "interstellar object" to enter Solar system. It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named "Oumuamua" which stands for "advance scout" in Hawaiian.

However, the brightness of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32
44%
Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by more than 0.0% but less than 5.0%
38%
No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive
9%
No, and will be behind the Republican candidate by more than 5.0%
9%
Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican candidate by 5.0% or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 762
Forecasters: 413
10%
Unlikely

This is a market on whether Ukraine will sever Russia's land bridge to Crimea at any point before September 31, 2023. The primary resolution source will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): https://storymaps.arcgis..

★★★★☆
Insight
Volume: $46k
61%
Likely

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.

The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the electoral college.

In...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 77
70%
Likely

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for A "Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science.


From the Federation of American Scientists:

**Many antibodies that scientists...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47
70%
Likely

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48
40%
Unlikely

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2023 will...

★★★★☆
PolyMarket
Liquidity: $1.4k

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