86%
Up by at least 2.5%, but less than 5.0%
12%
Up by at least 5.0%, but less than 7.5%
2%
Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 2.5%
< 1%
Down by more than 5.0%
< 1%
Down by more than 2.5%, but at most 5.0%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 106
Forecasters: 22
13%
Unlikely

Also see the companion question: Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?

In 1980, the government of China implemented the one-child policy in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
2%
Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
< 1%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
< 1%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
74%
The Democratic Party candidate
26%
The Republican Party candidate
< 1%
Someone else
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 94
Forecasters: 31
81%
Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.
13%
Stonehenge was built as a burial site.
6%
Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.
< 1%
Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
55%
About Even

In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a 40-year high. And between trade restrictions and air defense zone incursions.),...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48
87%
At least 40%, but less than 55%
10%
At least 55%, but less than 70%
1%
Less than 40%
1%
At least 70%, but less than 85%
< 1%
85% or higher
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 265
Forecasters: 41
46%
About Even

On 24 September 2024, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it was investigating PVH Group, which owns brands including Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, for its alleged boycott of cotton from Xinjiang (BBC, Fashion Dive, China Ministry of...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 27
Forecasters: 18
95%
Very likely

The wager for this question appeared here and was made September 12th, 2018 at even odds. This wager was an update on a previous post.

Caplan writes:

Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:

I bet at...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
68%
Down by more than 0.0% but at most 3.0%
28%
Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 3.0%
3%
Down by more than 3.0%
2%
Up by 3.0% or more
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 150
Forecasters: 24
51%
Milwaukee Bucks
24%
Cleveland Cavaliers
21%
Indiana Pacers
5%
Another team
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 28
Forecasters: 19
10%
Unlikely

In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account maxwellhill belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 520
33%
Unlikely

An outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Type A, subtype H5N1 was reported in dairy cattle for the first time on March 25, 2024 in the United States by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and soon thereafter a human tested positive...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 28
5%
Very unlikely

Pre-covid, several forecasters expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, several energy forecasters have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019.

According to the EIA, 2019 usage was 100.87...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 498
85%
Likely

Most countries worldwide have increased their focus on tackling climate change, pledging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increasing subsidies for renewable energies, and further public policy aimed at climate. The three major trading...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 82
77%
Barry and Honey were both murdered.
14%
Barry and Honey committed suicide together.
10%
Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
38%
Unlikely

From Wikipedia,

The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 119
52%
At least 95.00, but less than 105.00
36%
At least 85.00, but less than 95.00
7%
At least 105.00, but less than 115.00
4%
At least 75.00, but less than 85.00
1%
At least 115.00, but less than 125.00
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 81
Forecasters: 31
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125
75%
Likely

In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.

The Hill:...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 25
85%
Higher by between 4.50% and 6.00%, inclusive
14%
Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 4.50%
< 1%
Higher by more than 6.00%
< 1%
Higher by between 1.50% and 3.00%, inclusive
< 1%
Lower by more than 1.50%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 240
Forecasters: 50

Can't find what you were looking for? Show more, or suggest a question on Metaculus