Will be resolved by Manifold moderators based on evidence I submit to them.

Resolves YES if Land Value Tax is implemented in some form federally by 2029.

Resolves NO otherwise.

This resolves as YES only if a Federal LVT gets implemented (city, state LVTs would not qualify). The tax does not have to replace the US federal...

On March 26, the Brazilian Supreme Court ruled that Jair Bolsonaro will stand charges for an attempted coup. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-coup-2022-elections.html

This...

Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them...

According to the US EMP Commission (2004):

"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems

From selling things, rights, patents etc

Does not count if they are bought. Rather some type of customer has to generate revenue to them.

By mid 2029

Milei has spoken positively of Bitcoin previously. Will the Argentina govt., like El Salvador, purchase Bitcoin during his presidency?

Can be in his current presidential term or any of his possible future terms

Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly

resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on whether an agreed-upon ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine lasts for its entire specified duration without significant violations:

If the ceasefire agreement is permanent (with no specified end...

From Wikipedia,

Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote...

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms NOAA names during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Storms that form before the...

Needs to perform comparatively to any trained residential electrician, and able to solve any residential electrical issue a human residential electrician can.

Does not need to be as fast, just able to solve the problems at least 75% as good as the...

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. On January 16, Romania's coalition government approved a re-run of the presidential election. It is scheduled for...

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. On January 16, Romania's coalition government approved a re-run of the presidential election. It is scheduled for...

“Yes” if he is still alive on that date.

“No” if he dies before then.

If it’s unclear whether he is alive or not on that date I’ll extend the resolution up to 1st June 2026. If it’s still unclear whether he is alive on 1st June 2026 I will resolve...

Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES. If not, NO.

Will Lady Gaga compete for the Oscar for best actress in 2025 with the film Joker: Folie à Deux?

This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.

Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.

Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference...

In the upcoming EPL game, scheduled for May 16 at 2:30PM ET, If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If not, this market will resolve to “No”. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been...

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral..