73%
Likely

Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the FIFA world cup with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 215
20%
Unlikely

The LGBTQ movement has made massive strides during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was illegal in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 448
40%
About Even

The Supreme Court agreed to hear challenges to House Bill 20 (HB 20), a Texas law that, among other things, prohibits qualifying social media companies from censoring users based on the viewpoint of their expression (Economist, Texas.gov, Oyez,...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 454
Forecasters: 266
46%
About Even

Saudi Public Investment Fund-backed LIV, founded in 2021, has been a rival to the nearly-century old PGA which generally has not permitted LIV golfers to participate in their events, with some exceptions (Golf Digest, National Club Golfer). The PGA...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 29
Forecasters: 20
81%
Likely

If any doubt exists as to the outcome of the market, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further...

★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £46k
23%
Unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?

In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. ...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 46
5%
Very unlikely

The first discovered interstellar object (1I`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent extraterrestrial civilization. While the majority of the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 134
16%
Unlikely

Cultivated meat is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 179
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

As the two most populous nations on the planet, both at somewhat similar stages of economic development, the economic prospects of China and India are frequently compared. A FocusEconomics article describes their economic history and outlook as...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 258
20%
Unlikely

US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as the Magnificent Seven). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 43
18%
Unlikely

Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a long series of disputes between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 36
95%
The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).
2%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).
< 1%
The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
64%
Likely

Among the many challenges of tuberculosis elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in countries of the former Soviet Union, South and...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67
78%
Likely

Accurate and timely weather forecasting has become increasingly important as climate change progresses. In recent years, satellite constellations have emerged, presenting the possibility of enhancing weather prediction. These constellations,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 122
80%
Likely

As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is GPT-4 and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 is estimated by Epoch to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.

The largest Chinese-made model is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 271
13%
Unlikely

From an article reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,

A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 229
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

After the Russian's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; sanctions, boycotts, protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 246
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.
2%
Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
< 1%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
< 1%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
★★★★☆
Rootclaim
Forecasts: 1
51%
2025 or later
20%
December 2024
7%
July 2024
5%
November 2024
5%
October 2024
★★★☆☆
Betfair
Volume: £3.3k
70%
Likely

Holden Karnofsky, in Nearcast-based "deployment problem" analysis, suggests establishing an organization, which he calls the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international agency, that tracks...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 91
> 99%
Virtually certain

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is RESP-NET, which it...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 222

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