27%
More than 5.0 million but fewer than 6.5 million
26%
Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive
16%
More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million
13%
Between 3.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive
10%
Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 91
Forecasters: 25
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification Clause" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 309
12%
Unlikely

On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House.

Congress members may bypass the Speaker's will by...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 21
21%
Unlikely

In an interesting case study of the dangers of making an ambiguous bet, on Longbets Martin Rees bet Steven Pinker that,

A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67
27%
Unlikely

Adani Group is a conglomerate of companies headquartered in India. It is one of the largest business houses in India, with interests in diverse sectors such as ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, real estate, financial services, and defense....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 58
19%
Tim Scott
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
8%
Kristi Noem
7%
J.D. Vance
6%
Marco Rubio
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £525k
3%
Very unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?

  • Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction

  • Would we recover if population falls <400m?

  • Will...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 125
96%
Very likely

Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 276
75%
Likely

An oracle (Wikipedia, Lesswrongwiki) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a general AI, and it may help to solve the safety...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 328
37%
Unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

  • Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction

  • Would we recover if population falls <400m?

  • Will humans go...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90
92%
Very likely

The advancement of space-based technologies has been postulated as a game-changing factor in multiple sectors, including agriculture. From GPS-guided tractors to the use of satellite imagery for crop monitoring, space tech has the potential to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Related Questions on Metaculus:

  • Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?

  • Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?


As of February 21, 2023, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have both declared their...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 285
94%
Not before 1 July 2024
6%
Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024
< 1%
Before 1 January 2024
< 1%
Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 241
Forecasters: 66
3%
Very unlikely

While Donald Trump was facing various federal criminal charges as of December 2023, he had not been charged under 18 U.S.C. §2383, which provides criminal consequences for involvement in "rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 229
Forecasters: 92
50%
Democratic Party
47%
Republican Party
3%
Any Other
★★★★☆
Betfair
Volume: £388k
85%
Likely

Most countries worldwide have increased their focus on tackling climate change, pledging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increasing subsidies for renewable energies, and further public policy aimed at climate. The three major trading...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 72
51%
Yes, it will decrease the total cap
39%
No
11%
Yes, it will increase the total cap
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 41
Forecasters: 19
40%
About Even

We recommend forecasters start with this document, Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring.


From the Federation of American Scientists:

Wearable...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 51
23%
At least 1.50%, but less than 3.00%
21%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.50%
16%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00%
15%
At least 4.50%, but less than 6.00%
12%
At least 8.00%, but less than 10.00%
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 70
Forecasters: 55
99%
Virtually certain

Late October 2023, a new pastry called the crompouce went viral in The Netherlands. A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry tompouce. News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 89
8%
Very unlikely

Related Question on Metaculus:

  • Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?

Ten years ago (mid 2011) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 112

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