86%
Likely
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 569

In this article computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:

...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 215
60%
Likely
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1137
7%
Very unlikely

Trinity) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted world wide.

The US has conducted...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 304
80%
Likely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 408
28%
Unlikely

Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. As of May 2021, the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144
8%
Very unlikely

According to the Arms Control Association's Nuclear Testing Tally, there have been 2,056 nuclear weapons tests around the globe (as of September 6, 2022). This tally includes nuclear weapons testing for military purposes as well as peaceful nuclear...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 38

The Turing test is,

a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 354
< 1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.

According to Foreign Policy:

Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 169
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 80
30%
Unlikely

Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser "dazzling," and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons.

As both the militarization and the commercialization of...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 226
82%
Likely

Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet here.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1356
3%
Very unlikely

This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See here for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.

Whether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 111
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 79
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 90

From Wikipedia:

Nuclear power in space is the use of nuclear power in outer space, typically either small fission systems or radioactive decay for electricity or heat. Another use is for scientific observation, as in a Mössbauer spectrometer. The...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 135

Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example here, there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI.

Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 131

Intelligence quotient (IQ) is a measure of relative intelligence. Mensa International is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 257
90%
Very likely

In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft. Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 120
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144

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